Cholame, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS66 KLOX 250326
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
826 PM PDT Sun May 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...24/706 PM.

May Gray low clouds and fog will be widespread across the coasts
and valleys each night through morning period. Some cooling is
expected over the next couple days, with well below normal
temperatures Monday through Thursday. Additionally, areas of
gusty afternoon and evening winds are expected, strongest on Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SUN-WED)...24/826 PM.

***UPDATE***

High temperatures today were largely in the 60s and 70s, save for
the warmest valleys and interior locations reaching into the 80s,
with Antelope Valley even touching the low 90s. Like the previous
few days, gusty SW winds in the 30s to locally 40 mph were common
across the Antelope Valley foothills, while N to NW winds in the
30 mph range were common across the western Santa Barbara south
coast/Ynez Range.

The main challenge in the forecast this evening into tomorrow
morning is the marine layer coverage. Currently, the marine layer
clouds are well away from the coasts (and even all the islands).
While the current forecast does have marine layer clouds spreading
across the majority of the coasts and coastal valleys, current
observations suggest that the marine layer push could be slower
than forecast, or even struggle to reach the coastal valleys, if
not the coasts themselves. If the marine layer struggles to push
into the valleys overnight and tomorrow, high temps could be a few
degrees warmer than forecast, but that`s a very minimal impact and
very small chance at that. Otherwise highs tomorrow in the 60s to
70s, with the Antelope Valley in the 80s, are on track.

Otherwise the forecast is in shape and no updates were needed.

***From Previous Discussion***

Weather will be generally mild for at least the next few days,
as areas of gusty winds will be the most impactful feature. Highs
through Monday will be in the upper 60s to upper 70s, except for
80s in the deserts. Starting Tuesday, a strong low pressure system
will dig into the Great Basin, bringing very low 500 mb heights
(for May), cold air advection, and energetic northwesterly flow
aloft. Thus temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will drop to 5-10
degrees below normal, mostly in the low 60s to low 70s (except
mid 70s in the desert on Tuesday).

Forecast models indicate that marine layer clouds may either be
slow to form or not form at all tonight through Monday morning,
as a result of increasing northwest winds aloft. The greatest
chances for clouds will be along the Central Coast. Starting
Tuesday, high clouds will stream into the area. While marine layer
clouds are likely to form across most coasts and valleys, the
inversion may be weakened by the cold air aloft (and the high
clouds), thus low clouds may be patchy at times and afternoon
clearing may be more rapid.

Winds will trend upwards for Monday and increase further still on
Tuesday as a result of the upper level jet setting up over the
region and cold air advection (sinking motion). Wind Advisories
have been issued for Tuesday into Tuesday night for the beaches of
San Luis Obispo County, southwestern Santa Barbara County (NW
direction), and the Antelope Valley and western foothills (SW
direction). Additional Wind Advisories may be needed for the
eastern Antelope Valley foothills, and the Ventura and Western
Santa Barbara County beaches on Tuesday. There is also a 20
percent chance that a wind advisory will be needed for Monday
night for southwestern Santa Barbara County.

Southwesterly flow will occur at the surface south of Point
Conception, as an eddy will form in response to the strong
northwesterly winds across the coastal waters and Central Coast.
This flow pattern will likely produce fairly widespread drizzle
that will be enhanced by south-facing slopes. Drizzle is most
likely Monday night through Tuesday morning, though any accumulations
will be under 0.10 inches. Additionally, there is a chance of few
showers for interior north- facing mountains, especially northern
Ventura County to eastern LA County.

.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...24/216 PM.

The low pressure system is expected to remain in place over the
Great Basin through Thurday. Thus little change in appreciable
weather conditions is expected for Thursday compared to Wednesday,
except winds will be much weaker (due to less cold air advection
and weaker winds aloft).

Friday through Sunday temperatures will trend upwards as the low
travels to the east, becoming within a few degrees of normal over
the weekend (highs in the low 70s to low 80s for coast and
valleys). Moderate strength onshore surface pressure gradients
will continue, thus some coverage of marine layer stratus is
likely each night and morning, and onshore afternoon/evening winds
will continue for the Antelope Valley.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0112Z.

At 0034Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3700 feet with a temperature of 18 degrees
Celsius.

High confidence in KWJF and KPMD. For all other sites, moderate
confidence in forecasts as flight category changes could be up to
3 hours off from the forecasts.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Flight category changes
could be off by 3 hours from forecast times. No significant
easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Flight category
changes could be off by 3 hours from forecast times.

&&

.MARINE...24/806 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Monday morning, high confidence in winds and
seas remaining below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. Winds will
increase to SCA levels Monday afternoon for the waters south of
Point Sal to San Nicholas Island, then after a brief lull Tuesday
morning, high confidence in both winds and seas increasing to SCA
levels Tuesday afternoon through at least Wednesday night for all
the outer waters. Additionally, there is a 40-60% chance of Gale
force winds Tuesday late afternoon through Tuesday night across
all of the outer waters, then followed by SCA winds Wednesday into
early Thursday. For Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, conds
are likely to drop below SCA levels across the waters.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate confidence in
current forecast. Through Monday afternoon, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. There is a 30% chance
of SCA level winds Monday afternoon and evening. For Tuesday
through early Wednesday, high confidence in a combination of SCA
level winds (strongest in the afternoon and evening hours) and
seas. There is a 40% chance of SCA winds and seas Wednesday
afternoon through evening. Additionally, there is a 40-60% chance
of Gale force wind gusts Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday
night. From late Wednesday night through Thursday night, conds
should drop below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Monday morning, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. Monday
afternoon through night, there is a 50-60% chance of SCA level
NW to W winds across the Santa Barbara Channel, around the
Channel Islands, and into the Santa Monica Channel. On Tuesday
and Tuesday night, there is a 40-50% chance of SCA level winds
across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, and a
30-40% chance of SCA winds over PZZ655 Tuesday night. Otherwise,
moderate to high confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA
levels.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 2 PM to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for
      zones 340-341. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM Tuesday to 6 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM Tuesday to
      midnight PDT Tuesday night for zones 381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon Tuesday to 3 AM PDT
      Wednesday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Monday to 3 AM PDT
      Tuesday for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Schoenfeld/Lund
AVIATION...Ciliberti
MARINE...Lund/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...RS

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox