Channel Islands Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

495
FXUS66 KLOX 151124
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
424 AM PDT Tue Apr 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...15/229 AM.

Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will bring plenty of
night through morning low clouds and fog. there will also be a
chance of drizzle each morning. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will
occur Thursday and Friday with a chance of showers and a slight
chance of a thunderstorm with the best chance over the mountains
and far interior. Dry and milder conditions with a warming trend
are then expected for next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...15/318 AM.

The current marine layer is 1700 ft deep and with moderate onshore
flow the marine layer stratus has pushed across all of the coasts
and through the vlys even the Santa Clarita. Low clouds also cover
most of the interior of SLO county. The onshore flow will combine
with weak lift from an upper low to the west of the area and also
produce some morning drizzle - esp near the foothills. Look for
another day of slow clearing with no clearing at many beaches. Max
temps across the csts/vlys will end up 3 to 6 degrees blo normal
while the mtns and interior with no marine influence will end up
about 6 degrees over normal.

The upper low will move a little closer to the coast on Wednesday.
Moderate onshore flow will remain in place and the additional lift
from the low will keep the marine layer clouds in place longer.
Cooler air will also move into the interior. Look for 4 to 8
degrees of cooling across the board with max temps for the
csts/vlys only in the 60s or 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees blo
normal.

The 564 dam upper low will move over Srn Ca on Thursday. The
marine layer will be at its deepest. There is a good chance the
cooler air form the upper low will wreak havoc with the marine
inversion. There will likely be a hodge-podge of clouds and in the
afternoon a strata cu layer will likely cook up. Probably the best
way to describe the day is partly to mostly cloudy. There is a
10 percent chc of a mtn shower due to the cool air aloft. The big
news will be the max temps which will cool further. Max temps will
be mostly in the lower to mid 60s (which would actually be below
normal in January!)

A 2 to 30 percent chc of showers with a smaller chc of a TSTM will
develop Thursday evening and overnight as mdls shows an uptick in
instability and dynamics from the upper low.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...15/318 AM.

Friday could be an interesting day. A very cold (550 dam) upper
low will retrograde out of the interior and into NV. This will put
it in a good position to advect plenty of PVA into the area from
the north. There will be a chance of showers and a slight chc of
TSTMs starting in the morning peaking in the afternoon and then
diminishing in the evening. Due to the N to NE flow into the area
the mtns and interior portions will have the best chance of
convective activity but the northerly flow could easily push any
cell out of the mtns and into the vlys or even csts.

Rainfall will be highly variable due to the showery nature of the
system, but a quarter inch seems like a good bet for the high end
total. Snow levels will be in the 6000 to 7000 feet range (locally
lower under convective bursts). The northerly flow pattern will
also provide enough upper level wind support for some advisory
level winds in the mtns. Max temps will rise 2 to 4 degrees as
there will be a little more sunshine but will still end up many
degrees blo normal.

Clearing skies and cold airmass will team up to lower min temps
into the upper 30s and lower 40s for the interior and mid 40s to
lower 50s for the csts/vlys.

Dry NW flow with rising hgts will move in Saturday and persist
into Monday. All of the cold air will have wiped out the marine
inversion so the low clouds will be at a minimum or even non
existent. Sunnier skies and 570 dam hgts will team up to bring
three days of warming (greatest on Saturday) with most max temps
across the csts/vlys in the upper 60s to mid 70s degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...15/1124Z.

At 0905Z near KLAX, the marine inversion was based at 1700 feet.
The top of the inversion was 3400 feet with a temperature of 14
degrees Celsius.

Moderate to high confidence in TAFs. Timing of transition to VFR
may be off +/- 3 hours, and there is a moderate chance coastal
terminals remain MVFR through the period. KBUR and KVNY flight
cats may bounce between LIFR and IFR through 17Z.

KLAX...Moderate to high confidence in 12Z TAF. Timing of
transition to VFR may be off +/- 3 hours, and there is a 20%
chance for MVFR conds to prevail through the period. Arrival of
MVFR cigs late tonight may be off by +/- 4 hours. No significant
east wind component is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 12Z TAF. Flight cat may bounce
between LIFR and IFR through 17Z. Arrival of MVFR cigs late
tonight may be off by +/- 4 hours.

&&

.MARINE...15/249 AM.

High confidence in relatively benign conditions through Thursday
morning. There is 20-30% chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
level winds south of Point Conception in the afternoon/eve from
Thursday through Saturday around the Channel Islands. Better
chances for more widespread SCA level winds exist Sunday afternoon
into the beginning of next week.

Light drizzle may occur in the late night through morning hours
through Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox