Castroville, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

332
FXUS66 KMTR 161136
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
436 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025

Wind and cooler temps on tap for the weekend as a potent system
enters the Great Basin. Warm and dry with fair weather expected
mid-next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025

Another quintessential California day on the docket with mostly
clear skies and breezy northwest flow. A quick check of the
nighttime satellite shows some upper level cloudiness moving
through the region associated with a subtle shortwave trough. This
will likely lend a hand to some elevated cloud layers through this
afternoon, but shouldn`t cause any concern.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025

By late Friday night we will start to see the impacts of a potent
system progged to dig into the Great Basin. Gusty NW winds are
expected to develop by midday Saturday lasting through Sunday
evening. Confidence in the overall pattern is high as ensemble
guidance has largely held steady for the past few days. One big
change this morning, however. The latest guidance depicts a more
open wave, which would ultimately lead to the upper low ejecting
out into the Central Plains a bit earlier than previously
expected. Where previous forecasts called for offshore winds
through Monday morning, this morning`s forecast package advertises
less of an offshore wind component. Still looking at gusty N/NW
winds early Monday morning, which will result in downsloping
winds in the higher terrain of the interior North Bay. This will
still lead to elevated fire danger for these areas through Monday
where humidities will be low due to compressional heating and
continental airmass influence. All in all, winds look to gust
into the 30-40 mph range across inland areas and 40-50 mph along
the coast and favored NW-SE oriented valleys and gaps. A longwave
ridge pattern is restored by the middle of next week, promoting a
drying trend and high temps warmer than seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 435 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025

Currently a mix of MVFR-VFR at the terminals. Two upper-level
shortwave troughs will be the primary drivers behind the weather
over the TAF period. High clouds from the first one are essentially
foiling any expansion of stratus across the region. Moderate winds
are expected onward from this afternoon as a cold front with upper-
level support sweeps across the region from north to south tomorrow
morning. As such, the marine layer will deepen and impact all but
LVK overnight.

Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. There`s some
stratus along the San Francisco Peninsula Coast that has briefly
resulted in an MVFR ceiling as well as some across the San
Francisco Bay to the east of the OAK terminal. While not expected
to fill in, it could still be a nuisance. Westerly winds will
increase through the morning, becoming gusty this afternoon. High
confidence in an MVFR ceiling impacting the terminal overnight.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently MVFR with southwesterly flow at
MRY and MVFR with westerly flow at SNS. High confidence in
conditions improving to VFR by late morning with another evening
return of MVFR stratus. Moderate westerly winds will prevail through
the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 250 AM PDT Fri May 16 2025

Hazardous marine conditions will be relentless through Tuesday.
Strong to near gale breezes with gale force gusts are expected
over the inner and outer waters, teetering between northerly and
northwesterly. Rough to very rough seas are expected through
Tuesday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
     Saturday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Sarment
MARINE...Sarment

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea