Casmalia, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

598
FXUS66 KLOX 071630
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
930 AM PDT Wed May 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...07/920 AM.

A deep marine layer today will maintain cloudy skies across coast
and valleys through at least the morning hours with better
clearing expected in the afternoon. High pressure aloft will push
in over California Thursday through Sunday, resulting in much
warmer conditions, peaking Friday and Saturday. Some coastal areas
will remain mild under a shrinking marine layer. Gusty north
winds will for Thursday Night and continue through at least the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...07/930 AM.

***UPDATE***

The upper low that has plagued the area over the last several days
has finally moved into AZ. However, despite this, a deep marine
layer still exists this morning with stratus covering all coast,
valleys, and even some lower mountain slopes. All the high res
models indicate clearing in most areas by this afternoon with the
exception of the some coastal areas. Not 100% confident in this
outcome given the 4000` tops but lending some credence to this is
a 3mb offshore gradient trend and lowering cloud ceilings this
morning. The high temperature forecast today may also be a little
aggressive given the current situation.

***From Previous Discussion***

Temperatures are the main talking point of the three day period.
The combination of weaker onshore (or even weakly offshore) flow,
sunnier skies and hier hgts will bring three days of impressive
warming. Across the csts Look for most areas to rise 2 to 4
locally 6 degrees each day with the big exception of the Central
Coast where an offshore burst will bring 10 to 15 degrees of
warming on Friday. Most areas away from the coast will see 10 to
15 degrees of warming today, 5 to 10 degrees on Thursday and 4 to
8 degrees on Friday. By Friday the only 70 degree readings will be
found at the higher elevations and the beaches. The rest of the
csts and vlys will see highs from the lower 80s to mid 90s. Highs
Friday for all areas except for the SBA/VTA/LA coasts will all 8
to 12 locally 15 degrees over normal. These temperatures will
flirt with both records and advisory criteria but will likely come
up a touch short.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...07/301 AM.

Saturday will be the warmest day for the entire area save for the
Central Coast which will cool 3 to 6 degrees with the return of
the sea breeze. The rest of the area should warm 2 to 4 degrees.
Across the coasts only the beaches will be in the lower to mid 70s
with upper 70s and 8-s across the rest of the cstl areas. The
vlys will be solidly in the 90s with a 25 percent chc of the
warmest spots hitting 100. The inland coastal areas will be 5 to
10 degrees above normal while the vlys, mtns and interior will be
10 to 20 degrees above normal. The overnight lows will not be too
much above normal and this will likely keep the areas out of heat
advisory criteria. The San Fernando Vly stands the best chc of
meeting advisory level temps.

Vigorous cooling is on tap for the Sunday to Tuesday time frame.
An upper low will spin out of the PACNW and into Nrn CA. Hgts will
fall through the period reaching 568 dam on Tuesday. Just as
important onshore flow will increase through the period perhaps
reaching 9 mb onshore to the east on Monday afternoon. Look for a
steadily increasing marine layer cloud pattern with slow to no
clearing returning to many coastal sites. Look for 4 to 8 degrees
of cooling for most areas on Sunday, then 8 to 12 degrees on
Tuesday (except the cst which will cool 2 to 4 degrees. Finally,
on Tuesday and additional 3 to 6 degrees of cooling is forecast.
By Tuesday max temps will almost all be in the 60s across the
csts/vlys or 4 to 8 degrees blo normal.

The strong onshore flow will likely produce gusty near advisory
level wind gusts in the afternoons and early evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...07/1116Z.

At 1047Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 3700 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 4800 ft with a temperature of 15
C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. Cigs are breaking up and
reforming across the area. Due to multiple cloud decks, cigs
012-030 may vary between OVC and SCT south of Point Conception,
leading to conds bouncing between MVFR and VFR. There is a 30%
chance for IFR conds at KPRB through 16Z. Low confidence in
clearing times (+/- 3 hours), but moderate confidence that most
sites will at least SCT after 18Z. Low confidence in arrival time
and coverage of low clouds tonight. Minimum flight cat may be off
by at least 1 cat and arrival time may be off +/- 3 hours.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs 015-030 will continue to
vary between OVC and SCT due to multiple cloud decks. Clearing
time may be off +/- 2 hours, but moderate confidence in cigs at
least SCT after 18Z. Arrival time of cigs tonight may be off +/- 3
hours and there is a moderate chance for cigs OVC007-010 tonight.
No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Clearing time may be off +/- 2
hrs. Cigs 012-025 may bounce from OVC to SCT through this morning.
Moderate confidence in VFR conds through the period once cigs
clear this morning.

&&

.MARINE...07/810 AM.

Conditions will remain relatively benign through Thursday morning,
with the exception of local gusts reaching Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) levels in the Inner Waters south of Point Conception this
afternoon and evening, including the Santa Barbara Channel and
the waters around Malibu and through the San Pedro Channel.
There is a 20 percent chance that these winds become widespread
and strong enough for a SCA.

From Thursday afternoon through the weekend, moderate to high
confidence for widespread SCA level winds across the Outer Waters.
Highest confidence in the northern Outer Waters reaching SCA
levels Thursday and Friday, then SCA winds becoming more
widespread over the weekend. Winds may increase to SCA levels in
the Inner Waters along the Central Coast and the western half of
the Santa Barbara Channel, especially over the weekend, but
confidence is low at this point. In the northern Outer Waters,
seas will begin to build near SCA levels this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Lewis
MARINE...Lewis/Munroe
SYNOPSIS...MW/RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox