Casmalia, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

487
FXUS66 KLOX 120350
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
850 PM PDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...11/355 PM.

Moderate rain and a chance of thunderstorms will sweep through
the area tonight into Sunday morning. Scattered shower activity
is then possible Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Dry and
warmer weather is expected the rest of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...11/850 PM.

***UPDATE***

Currently the cold front and associated line of precipitaton is
impacting the coastal waters off the Central Coast and the very
northwestern portion of San Luis Obispo County. To the north in
Monterey County, the storm system produced areas of 1.5 inches
within the past 3 hours and strong winds gusts of 50+ mph. This is
indicative of some of the hazards we may see overnight into Sunday
morning. Periods of urban flooding, gusty-to-damaging winds, and
lighting will be possible tonight through Sunday afternoon. The
overall timing of precipitation remains generally on track, if
not accelerated by 60-90 minutes compared to forecast models.
This may result in the main core of rain exiting Los Angeles
County as early as 9 or 10 AM on Sunday.

***From Previous Discussion***

Overall, 12Z models in good synoptic agreement through the period.
At upper levels, low will move across Northern California tonight
and Sunday which will sweep a potent cold front across the region
tonight/Sunday. On Monday, an upper level trough will move across
the area with an upper level ridge building offshore on Tuesday.

Forecast-wise, main focus continues to be on potent cold front,
sweeping across the area tonight/Sunday. Some light warm frontal
rain can be expected through this evening across the area.
Overnight, the cold front will sweep across the area, finally
exiting Los Angele county Sunday afternoon. There may be some
lingering showers Sunday night, but dry conditions are expected
for Monday and Tuesday.

Rainfall totals through Sunday night are expected to range between
0.50 and 1.50 inches with local amounts around 2.00 inches in the
foothills/mountains. Rainfall rates are expected to be in the 0.25
to 0.50 inch/hour range, but locally higher rates around 0.75
inches/hour will be possible with thunderstorm activity. So, minor
nuisance flooding is likely, but major flooding/debris flows
remain unlikely. This frontal passage will be rather dynamic
(decent CAPE, etc), resulting in a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms.
Any thunderstorms that develop will likely produce brief heavy
rain, gusty outflow winds, small hail and potentially waterspouts
or weak, short-lived, tornadoes.

As for winter weather issues, snow levels are currently running in
the 6000-8000 foot range, but will drop to the 4500-6000 foot
range tonight/Sunday. So, there will be several inches of snow
accumulation (5-10 inches) expected above 6000 feet. Given the
expected snow totals, and some gusty southwesterly winds, the
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES will remain in effect for the mountains
of Santa Barbara/Ventura/LA counties.

A secondary weather concern will be winds. As the front passes
through tonight/Sunday, southwesterly winds, gusting 30-45 MPH,
will be likely across the mountains/interior sections. At this
time, expect any advisory-level gusts to remain localized. So,
no advisories will be issued with the afternoon forecast.
However, future shifts will need to watch that potential closely.

Finally as for temperatures, cool conditions can be expected
Sunday and Monday with highs generally 5-10 degrees below normal.
On Tuesday, highs will begin to rebound, but still will top out a
degree or two below normal.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...11/207 PM.

For the extended, 12Z models continue to be on the same, broad,
synoptic page. Weak upper level trough will persist over the area
on Wednesday, then an inside slider will drop into the Great Basin
Thursday/Friday.

Forecast-wise, the extended will be expected to remain rather
benign. Mostly clear/partly cloudy and dry conditions are
expected through the period. There could be some return of coastal
stratus/fog later in the extended period, but not confident
enough to include in the official forecast. On Thursday/Friday,
there will likely be an increase in northerly across the area as
the inside slider dives into the Great Basin. At this time,
ensembles are indicating a 50-70% chance of advisory-level
northerly winds in the usual spots (I-5 Corridor and the Santa
Barbara county mountains). As for temperatures, will expect a
warming trend through the period with temperatures peaking on
Saturday (about 4-8 degrees above normal).

&&

.AVIATION...11/2349Z.

At 2320Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer or inversion.

Moderate confidence in the TAFs. A cold front will affect all
terminals tonight into Sun morning. Low confidence in cig/vis
fcst when the rain is occuring. Winds will be southerly ahead of
the front and westerly after. There is a 15-30% chance of
thunderstorms, highest for northern airfields, tonight into Sun
morning. Any thunderstorms could produce gusty and erratic winds
and brief lower vsbys in heavy rain.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain is expected between
11Z-19Z and cig/vis may be as low at 1/2SM-2SM at times during
rain. Winds will shift rapidly from southerly to westerly as the
front passes. There is a 15% chance of thunderstorms from 14Z Sun
to 00Z Mon. No significant east wind component expected except
during thunderstorms.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Rain is expected between
10Z-18Z and cig/vis may be as low at 1/2SM-2SM at times during
rain. Winds will shift rapidly from southerly to westerly as the
front passes. There is a 30% chance of thunderstorms from 15Z-18Z
Sun, and a 15% chance through 00Z Mon.

&&

.MARINE...11/817 PM.

A strong storm system will affect the southwestern CA coastal
waters tonight into Sunday. This system will sweep a cold front
across the waters, bringing Small Craft level southerly winds,
showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the area. Potential
hazards include: heavy downpours, dangerous cloud to ocean
lightning, small hail, and erratic gusty winds. Boaters,
especially those with small vessels, should avoid these
conditions.

Seas will build on Sunday to 8-10 feet across the central and
northern Outer Waters. Additionally, Small Craft level west to
northwest winds are likely for all the waters Monday afternoon and
night. Then northwest SCA winds are possible for much of the time
across the outer waters Tuesday through Thursday night, with a
20% chance of Gale Force winds at times Thursday night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 11 AM PDT
      Monday for zones 353-376-377. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect from 3 AM Sunday to
      11 AM PDT Monday for zones 378>380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 AM to 10 PM PDT Sunday for
      zones 381-382. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for
      zones 645-670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Thompson/RS
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Sirard/Ciliberti
SYNOPSIS...MW/CC

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox