Casitas Springs, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

868
FXUS66 KLOX 150328
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
728 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...14/335 PM.

High pressure and offshore flow will bring very warm and dry
conditions across the region through the weekend. Gusty Santa Ana
winds will continue through the end of the week, mainly across
portions of Los Angeles and Ventura Counties. The warmest
temperatures of the period will linger into Thursday, then a slow
cooling trend will start Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (WED-SAT)...14/725 PM.

The latest water vapor imagery indicates broad and strong ridging
aloft in place over the Western States. An offshore flow regime
continues to be the main weather factor, keeping warmer and drier
weather in place. Gusty Santa Ana winds with daytime temperatures
well above normal will continue through the end of the week. Near
record heat will persist across the region with temperatures
falling close to daily record levels across the region.

The latest forecast guidance and 18Z EPS ensembles are starting
to hint at more of an uptick winds for Friday and Saturday, with
Saturday potentially be on the higher end of an advisory.
Otherwise, low-end advisory level winds are likely to linger
across the Southland into Thursday afternoon, but there is a
likely chance that the wind advisories will need to be extended
due to wind strengthening across the region.

A few tweaks to overnight low temperatures will be made in the
wind-sheltered areas and interior valleys. Otherwise, the package
looks to be in reasonable shape.

***From Previous Discussion***

A very slow (1-2 degree/day) cooling trend will likely begin
Friday and last into next week but it`s going to take most of next
week before temperatures are back to normal levels.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...14/206 PM.

Well above normal temperatures will continue through at least
through Tuesday with highs in the in the mid 70s to mid 80s for
most coast/valley areas. High pressure will start to break
down around Wednesday with a return to onshore flow around that
time as well which will bring temperatures back to near normal
levels. The 18z GFS deterministic run actually shows a legitimate
upper low coming through the area next Thursday and Friday,
though the vast majority of the ensemble solutions indicate little
to no rain until next weekend at the earliest.

&&

.AVIATION...14/2335Z.

Around 23Z, there was no marine layer depth at KLAX. There was a
surface-based inversion up to around 1400 feet with a temperature
near 25 degrees Celsius.

High confidence in the current forecast for flight categories.
Moderate confidence in timing of the winds and wind impacts. VFR
conditions are expected through the period. There is a moderate to
high chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level wind
shear and turbulence through 20Z at terminals south of Point
Conception.

KLAX...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Any
easterly winds should remain less than 7 knots.

KBUR...VFR conditions are expected through the period. There is a
30 percent chance of moderate to occasionally strong low-level
wind shear and turbulence through 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...14/113 PM.

Moderate risk of NE to E wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots from
Ventura through Santa Monica tonight through Thursday morning,
then again late Thursday through Friday and possibly into Saturday
morning. These winds may fill more of the Santa Barbara Channel
than usual and further out through the west Channel Islands
through Thursday afternoon, but the southern Santa Barbara Coast
will remain fairly calm. There is a clear enough lull in winds
Thursday afternoon through late night to end the Small Craft
Advisory (SCA), but another SCA is possible late Thursday into
Friday afternoon.

NE wind gusts of at least 10 to 15 knots are also likely off the
SLO County Coast and in the San Pedro Channel (including Catalina
Island), with a low but non-zero risk of reaching 25 knots.
Expect short-period choppy seas with these winds.

A long period west to northwest swell will fill in over the region
through Thursday, but wave heights will stay under 8 feet through
the weekend and into next week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory now in effect until 2 PM PST Thursday for zones
      88-358-369-371-374>376-378>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 3 PM
      PST Thursday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/MW
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Lewis
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox