Cartago, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

703
FXUS65 KVEF 290007
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
506 PM PDT Wed May 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures warm to dangerous levels on Friday and
Saturday as highs reach 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Late in the
weekend and early next week, moisture from tropical remnants is
expected to drift into the Desert Southwest, bringing precipitation
chances and notably cooler temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday.

Quiet and dry conditions persist into the weekend, leaving the only
real weather story to the heat. Temperatures this afternoon are
forecast to be a few degrees above normal, with highs in the 90s and
low 100s across the Mojave Desert. Highs in the southern Great Basin
range from the mid 80s to low 90s. However, as ridging builds across
the western US in the coming days, temperatures will warm to ~10
degrees above normal for late May. The heat peaks on Friday and
Saturday, with forecast highs in the Mojave Desert ranging from 97-
107. Combined with warm overnight lows, HeatRisk will jump to major
levels over most of this area. Extreme Heat Warnings go into effect
for places like Las Vegas, Laughlin, Pahrump, Death Valley, and
Barstow during this time.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Tuesday.

As we get into the 2nd half of the weekend and early next week,
attention shifts to the Eastern Tropical Pacific and a cutoff low
meandering just west of the Baja Peninsula. A tropical system (soon
to be named Alvin) is forecast to drift northward over the coming
days and pretty much dissipate as it enters the Gulf of California.
However, the associated moisture will continue to be pulled north
through the Gulf thanks to the cutoff low`s circulation. Guidance
shows the anomalous moisture creeping into our southern zones on
Saturday, but the bulk of the moisture arrives Sunday and Sunday
night. Ensemble mean PWAT values across most of the area are 150-
250% of normal. At the same time, a tough coming out of the PacNW is
expected to begin merge with the cutoff low, dragging it northeast
into the lower Colorado River Valley and Arizona. Models have swayed
back and forth with the track of the moisture/low, so there remains
some uncertainty (especially considering that it is a cutoff low).
However, confidence is increasing in precipitation potential on
Sunday and Sunday night for areas southeast of I-15. Shifts in the
track could push the better precipitation chances solely into
Arizona or draw them west to the I-15 corridor. Currently, chances
in excess 25% are confined to the lower Colorado River Valley and
northwest Arizona. Interaction with the larger trough could spark
lighter precipitation across the southern Great Basin as well where
PoPs are over 25% Sunday night and Monday. Farther south, the trough
interaction will act to induce gusty southwest winds which will
scour the moisture out and bring precipitation chances to an end on
Monday. Across the Mojave Desert, these winds may be on the more
impactful side with probabilities of 40+ mph gusts around 50-75%.
Southwest breezes linger on Tuesday, though should be a little
weaker. Temperature-wise, expecting near or below normal values
during this time.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...South-
southeast breezes continue through sunset with gusts 14-18 knots.
Winds weaken and shift to the south-southwest this evening,
persisting through the night. A return to more typical wind patterns
is expected tomorrow, with chances of gusts over 10 knots dropping
to around 25%. VFR conditions with few to scattered high clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Breezy easterly to
southerly winds continue across the region this afternoon with gusts
15-25 knots in most locations. Winds subside this evening as the sun
sets, though the exception to this is KDAG where the westerly push
will arrive with gusts 20-25 knots. Similar conditions expected
tomorrow afternoon with perhaps slightly weaker winds. VFR
conditions prevail throughout the TAF period with clouds remaining
at or above 12kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Woods

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter