Carmel, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

447
FXUS66 KMTR 151158
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
458 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025

...New AVIATION, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 127 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Subtle warming trend under way with fair weather through the end
of the week. High wind potential by Saturday through Monday
morning across much of the region. Warm next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Friday)
Issued at 127 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Evidence of fair weather and high pressure aloft in the marine
layer this morning, which has become well-formed and compressed to
about 1,000 ft. Looking at the 24 hour change in temperatures this
morning; overall, temps are about 1-3 degrees warmer than 24 hours
ago. Expecting the same in afternoon high temperatures as well,
which will be slightly above seasonal averages. Not expecting any
impacts over the next couple of days as this pattern persists
through Friday. Things start to change late Friday as we get into
the weekend and a potent upper low digs into the western US.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Continued high confidence in high winds resulting in minor to
moderate impacts this weekend. By early Saturday morning, a
robust 130 kt jet begins to impinge upon the West Coast as a deep
upper low digs into the Great Basin. There is a non- zero chance
of some isolated drizzle Saturday morning as the marine layer is
lifted and eventually mixed out by the approaching trough. Lower
level flow begins to increase by midday Saturday with 700 mb flow
approaching 50 kts over the waters. The flow regime largely
remains northwesterly and parallel to the coast. This may act to
limit some of the impact to land, thus limiting the potential for
widespread advisory-level winds. However, locations along the
coast and notable NW-SE valleys (i.e. Salinas Valley and the San
Bruno Gap) are likely to see gusts into the 40-50 mph range.
Elsewhere over land we are expecting gusts in the 30-40 mph range.
Holding off on an advisory for now, but will need to keep watch on
the possibility for a targeted advisory along coastal areas and
favored valleys. As the system exits, the flow upstream of the
trough axis veers more northerly and surface high pressure builds
as large scale subsidence sets in. The result will be a brief
period of offshore winds in the North Bay late Sunday night and
early Monday morning. No major concerns regarding fire weather for
now, but will keep an eye for increased messaging, especially
inland Napa Co.

Beyond the weekend system, strong high pressure is expected to
build through the middle of next week promoting above average
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 431 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025

MVFR CIGs are building along the coast and around the Monterey Bay
with widespread light winds expected through the morning.  CIGs
erode in the mid to late morning, leading to widespread VFR for
the afternoon as winds become moderate to breezy and high-level
cloud cover builds into the region. Expect winds to reduce into
the evening and early night. Spotty MVFR and IFR CIGs look to build
around the Monterey Bay into early Friday morning.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light
through the late morning before becoming more moderate. Expect
breezy west winds build in the mid afternoon but will reduce into
the late night. Moderate winds build again into late Friday
morning.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR/IFR CIGs linger around the Monterey
Bay but scatter and erode into the mid to late morning as
moderate winds build. Winds reduce into the evening, becoming
light into the night. IFR CIGs look to flow around an eddy in the
Monterey Bay early Friday, filling over the terminals, but
confidence is low on how long and consistent the cloud cover will
be.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 431 AM PDT Thu May 15 2025

Strong, gale force northwesterly winds continue across the outer
coastal waters as well as the northern inner waters while fresh
to strong northwesterly winds continue across the rest of the
waters. Moderate seas bringing steep, fresh swell will continue
through Saturday with significant wave heights between 10 to 12
feet expected across the outer waters. Widespread Gale conditions
are expected to build into the weekend with gusts approaching
storm force. Hazardous conditions will continue through the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos
     10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday
     for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

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