Canoga Park, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

502
FXUS66 KLOX 061756
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1056 AM PDT Tue May 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...06/848 AM.

A low pressure system just east of the area will bring continued
cool conditions to Southwest California through Tuesday, with a
few showers and gusty desert winds. High pressure aloft will
result in warmer conditions Wednesday through at least Sunday.
Gusty north winds will for Thursday Night and continue through the
weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...06/852 AM.

***UPDATE***

The forecast is in good shape. Made some minimal updates to match
the current cloud picture. Unsure how much clearing we will get
this afternoon. With onshore gradients remaining healthy, the
most likely outcome is for poor clearing similar to yesterday, but
when the marine layer gets this deep (4000+ feet) really anything
goes. There remains a low 5-10% chance of a shower forming in the
mountains today, but the projections have trended down from
yesterday.

***From Previous Discussion***

The marine layer is 4400 ft deep and with a 4 mb push both to the
E and N stratus clouds have pushed over the csts through the vlys
and deep into the mtns. Cloud coverage is a little less robust
over the Central Coast but is slowly filling in. This deep a
marine layer could also create some local drizzle this morning. By
afternoon the onshore push will increase to 6 or 7 mb and this
will be enough to make for another May Grey Day with slow to no
clearing. The slight chc of rain has been taken out as all of the
energy from the departing low is no to the east of LA county. Max
temps will be similar to ydy. Max temps will remain 4 to 8
locally 12 degrees blo normal.

Another upper low swings out of NV tonight and into SE CA. Right
now it appears dry and will not have much affect on the weather.
The marine layer should continue unabated and will again cover
almost all of the csts and vlys.

A ridge will build in later Wednesday and more importantly the
onshore flow in the afternoon will weaken by about 3 mb in both
directions. This will allow the marine layer clouds to clear more
completely. The extra sunshine will bring 4 to 8 locally 10
degrees of warming to VTA and LA counties with SLO and SBA
counties warming 2 to 4 degrees. Even with this warming all max
temps will come in under seasonal norms.

The weaker onshore flow and shallower marine layer (smooshed by
the building hgts) will lessen the amount of low clouds and will
likely keep the vlys and inland coastal areas cloud free. Building
hgts, plenty of sunshine and weaker onshore flow will all gang up
to raise temperatures 4 to 8 degrees. The beaches will see highs
in the mid to upper 60s while the rest of the coastal areas will
be in the 70s. The vlys will rise into the 80s. Most max temps
will end up 3 to 6 degrees above normal.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...06/1217 AM.

The ridge will persist into Friday. Hgts will fall and the flow
will become more and more cyclonic each day Sat through Mon. The
GFS and most of its ensembles show a sharper trof as well as
slightly lower hgts than the EC. At the sfc looks for increasing
onshore flow to the east while the N/S grads will not change much
switching from slightly offshore in the morning and then switching
to slightly onshore in the afternoon.

Friday will see 3 to 6 degrees of warming under sunny skies across
the board which will push cstl highs into the mid 70s to lower
80s while the vly rise to the mid 80s to lower 90s. Most max temps
will be 5 to 10 locally 12 degrees above normal. These temps,
while warm, are not heat advisory worthy. About 20 percent of the
ensemble show even warmer temps which could push max temps to
advisory levels.

There is about a 30 percent chc of some marine layer stratus
across the beaches on Saturday but more likely the low clouds will
hold off until Sunday. A stronger sea breeze will cool the Central
Coast by about 3 degrees while the rest of the csts/vlys will see
little change from Friday`s warm values.

A little better agreement with the xtnd mdls for Sunday and Monday
but still not great. A majority of the ensembles do favor an
increase in low clouds as well as an increase in onshore flow. Max
temps will likely cool 4 to 8 degrees each day. There will also be
likely near advisory gusts across the western Antelope Vly and
foothills in the afternoon.

Even further out...most mdl solutions show some sort of rain
associated with a late season cold upper low either Tue or Wed
with drastically lower temps.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1755Z.

At 1722Z at KLAX, the marine layer was around 4000 ft deep. The
top of the inversion was around 5600 ft with a temperature of 12
C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance of
IFR cigs at KPRB from 10z to 16Z Wed. Similar chances for LIFR
cigs at KSBP and KSMX from 06Z to 16Z Wed. Mainly MVFR to VFR cigs
(012-35) likely for VTA/LA counties thru fcst pd (except desert
sites).

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 30% chance cigs
do not scatter out from 21Z to 03Z Wed and remain MVFR (015-035)
thru 18Z Wed. No significant east wind component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Cigs 015-35 expected thru
fcst pd. However, they could (30% chance) scatter out from 21Z to
06Z Wed.

&&

.MARINE...06/815 AM.

Conditions will remain relatively benign through Wednesday, with
the exception of a moderate chance for localized SCA level
southerly winds from around Point Conception north to Avila Beach
this morning through late this afternoon. From Thursday afternoon
into the weekend, moderate to high confidence for widespread SCA
level winds across the Outer Waters. Winds may increase to SCA
levels in the Inner Waters along the Central Coast and the western
half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but confidence is low at this
point. Seas will begin to build near SCA levels for the Outer
Waters this weekend.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke/Kittell
AVIATION...Black
MARINE...Lewis/Black
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox