Briceland, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS66 KEKA 102158
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
258 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak late season storm system will bring gusty
south wind, light to moderate rain showers, and cold air across the
area Sunday afternoon through Monday. Moderate conditions will
return through most of next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Conditions have again remained generally
hot and dry across the are today with many interior highs reaching
up near 90 under clear skies. That said, the effects of an upper
level trough are starting to express themselves. For one, a weakened
marine inversion has allowed for marine clouds and fog to thoroughly
clear out along the coast. A thick bank of approaching midlevel
clouds is also evident several miles offshore.

Midlevel clouds will continue to fill in overnight. Clouds alongside
an approaching surface cold front will help cool highs down into the
upper 50s to mid 60s. High resolution models show good agreement
that light rain showers will begin the move across the area,
especially the North Coast, between about 1800 and 2200 Sunday
evening. Slightly stronger, moderate rain showers will continue to
move inland through the night before waning during the day on
Monday.

While this event will be the first truly wetting rain event in
several weeks, absolute rainfall will still be relatively modest.
NBM forecasts have stayed mostly consistent, showing most likely
rainfall at high elevations of 0.7 to 1.3 inches with 0.3 to 0.6 at
lower elevations along the coast. Locations further south and
Mendocino and Lake County will mostly see only a light wetting rain.
Even along the highest and most wind favored terrain, there is
little potential (15% chance) for any rain totals over 2 inches.

Wind will also turn southerly and increase along and behind Sundays
Cold front. High resolution models resolve a moderate low level jet
along the trough around 45 kts. Surface low pressure skating the
coast will enhance instability and wind mixing Sunday, though the
exact track and strength of said instability remains uncertain. Peak
gusts will most likely be no more than 40 mph even along high
terrain with only minor impacts. Instability will move over the
interior Monday, but rather than wind it may promote a slight chance
of isolated (15% chance) thundertorms over high terrain. That said
the very narrow instability profile resolved by models is unlikely
to support widespread or strong storms.

There is high ensemble confidence that generally weak ridging will
return through mid next week. That means warm and dry conditions for
the interior with an inconsistent marin layer along shore. Clearing
skies and lingering cold air Tuesday morning may allow for areas of
frost, especially in Trinity County, but recent rain will likely
generate fog and inhibit too much cooling. Even in a normally cold
place like Hayfork, NBM currently places only a 25% chance of
freezing conditions early Tuesday. The only other notable feature
will be enhanced onshore flow in the afternoons near shore Tuesday
and Wednesday. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...Skies have largely cleared this afternoon aside from a
few high clouds. Breezy northwesterly winds this afternoon are
forecast to subside in the evening. Models are in good agreement for
stratus to return to the coastal terminals this evening and
overnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings along with periods of light
rain/drizzle are likely. An approaching low will bring breezy
southerlies at the coastal terminals, which will help lift ceilings
to MVFR/VFR after sunrise Sunday. There is a low chance a deepening
marine layer tonight could help advect stratus into UKI tonight;
HREF is currently showing a 15-20% chance for low clouds.
Regardless, worsening conditions with rain and lower ceilings and
visibilities are expected Monday afternoon and evening as the front
moves onshore. JB


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds have started to ease ahead of an
approaching trough. Winds diminish further tonight and turn
southerly by the morning as a front moves toward the area. Gusts of
20-30 kts are possible Sunday afternoon as the front moves through
the area, and a brief period of isolated Gale Force gusts are
possible north of Cape Mendocino. Steep seas of 6-8 ft are forecast
north of the Cape. Winds and seas ease slightly Sunday night into
Monday morning, though gusts of 15-20 kts are still possible north
of the Cape. The position of the surface low is still uncertain, and
could impact the intensity and direction of these winds. Regardless,
stronger northerly winds return by Tuesday. NBM is showing a 20-40%
chance for Gale Force gusts in the lee of Cape Mendocino, while
small craft advisory conditions are possible north of the Cape. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from noon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for
     PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for
     PZZ475.

&&

$$

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png