Bonita, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

813
FXUS66 KSGX 141123
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
323 AM PST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Mild and dry this weekend with breezy south winds developing over
the mountains and deserts Sunday afternoon. A winter storm will
bring moderate to heavy rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds
Monday and Tuesday along with a slight chance of thunderstorms
Monday evening. Snow levels fall through Wednesday, with
elevations above 5000-6000 feet likely to see heavy snow and
significant impacts. Additional chances of showers on Thursday,
lowering to around 10% Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

There are a few patches of low clouds over the coastal areas and
valleys, most widespread over the souther Inland Empire, with
clear skies elsewhere. Expect low clouds to clear by late morning
and scattered high clouds to move in this afternoon. More
widespread low clouds across the coastal areas and valleys tonight
into Sunday morning as the marine layer deepens with an
approaching upper level trough. Otherwise high temperatures a few
degrees above normal today, lowering to near to slightly below
normal on Sunday. Breezy south to southwest winds develop across
the mountains and San Bernardino County deserts Sunday afternoon
and evening with peak gusts around 35 mph.

An upper level low currently off the Pac NW coast will slowly drop
south through Monday morning before a negatively tilted short wave
progresses across Southern CA. This wave is still forecast to have
a weak Atmospheric River associated with it. GEFS and EPS ensemble
means currently have Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) peaking
during the day Monday (though GEFS is a little slower) somewhere
between about 300-500 kg/m/s, though the EPS mean and
deterministic EC are on the stronger end. The EPS has a 45-60%
chance of IVT greater than 500 kg/m/s for a brief period on
Monday, though GEFS probabilities are closer to 30%. Though
relatively narrow and short duration, this has the potential to
produce moderate to heavy precipitation ahead of and along the
cold front on Monday when hourly rainfall rates could exceed
0.50"/hr. There is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms for the
mountains westward Monday afternoon, which could produce locally
higher rainfall rates. The snow level has trended a little lower
with this AR as well, currently around 6500 ft for the San
Bernardino Mountains and increasing to around 7000 ft in San Diego
County. This will allow for more snow accumulation on Monday for
places like Big Bear, while somewhat reducing the flash flood
threat on upper portions of the burn scars. WPC has also
introduced a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Orange County
into the lower slopes of the San Bernardino Mountains on Monday.
The snow level falls to around 5000-5000 ft Monday night as
precipitation turns lighter and more showery. We remain under
cyclonic flow for the remainder of Tuesday, allowing for scattered
showers to continue. See the Hydrology section for details on rain
and snow amounts.

In addition to precipitation, gusty south winds will develop
ahead of the cold front on Monday with widespread gusts of 25-35
mph for the coastal areas and valleys, 45-55 mph in the mountains
and deserts, and isolated gusts of 65 mph on the wind prone desert
mountain slopes/canyons. West winds behind the front will
generally impact the beaches, mountains, and deserts.

There are still some timing differences in the ensembles regarding
the passing of the next short wave on Wednesday, which will
generate another round of widespread precipitation. Current NBM
has highest probabilities of precipitation Tuesday evening through
Wednesday morning, though around 34% of the ensemble space is a
bit slower, bringing the wave through later in the day Wednesday.
This next trough will be colder, with snow levels dropping to
around 4500-5200 ft Wednesday morning and 4000-5000 ft Wednesday
afternoon, highest south. Ensemble spread continues into Thursday
with the progression of the next short wave and the position of
the mean trough. A position too far inland (around 57% of the
ensemble space) would limit the precipitation potential, while a
slower/further west track with a deeper trough (the remaining 43%
of members) would allow for more showers. This is especially
critical as snow levels could fall as low as 3000-3500 ft across
the San Bernardino Mountains and down to 4000 ft in the San Diego
County Mountains in the colder/wetter scenario Thursday morning,
leading to the risk of accumulating snow through the Cajon
Pass/I-15 and near Pine Valley and Crestwood Summit on I-8.

Precipitation chances lower to around 10% for Friday as most
ensembles have the short wave off to the east by then. High
temperatures will be well below normal through the week, as much
as 10-15 degrees below on Wednesday. Slow warming occurs Friday
and Saturday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
In terms of precipitation amounts, for the 48 hr period from 4 AM
Monday - 4 AM Wednesday, the NBM chances for at least 0.50" are
around 90-100% for the mountains westward, 40-75% over the high
desert, and 15-45% over the low deserts. Chances of at least 1"
are around 45-85% for the coasts and valleys, 70-100% for the
mountains, 10-25% for the high desert, and 5-15% for the low
desert. Hourly rain rates will be near 0.40-0.70"/hr as the
system on Monday moves through. Rates will be much lower on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Current official forecasted rainfall totals range from around
1.25-2" for the coasts and valleys, 2-5" inches in the mountains,
0.50-1.50" for the high desert, highest near the foothills of the
mountains, and around 0.30-0.75" for the low desert, locally
around 1.75" near the San Gorgonio Pass. If these higher amounts
verify over the northern Coachella Valley, increased flows on the
Whitewater River could cause flooding concerns at some of the low
water crossings. Latest river forecast ensembles have around a 15%
chance of the San Diego River reaching Monitor Stage on Monday and
Tuesday.

Significant snowfall is possible with this storm system next week.
At the 6500 ft level in the San Bernardino and Riverside County
mountains, there is around a 75% chance of at least 12" of snow
from 4 AM Monday through 4 AM Wednesday and around a 25-35%
chance of at least 12" down at the 5000 ft level. Given the
higher snow levels in San Diego County, chances of at least 12" at
Palomar and Mount Laguna are around 15-20%. Storm totals for the
week could approach 2 feet above 7000 ft in the San Bernardino and
Riverside County Mountains.

Additional light rain and mountain snowfall may occur later in the
week with low confidence on exact totals.

&&

.AVIATION...
141100Z...FEW-SCT low clouds based 1500-2000 ft MSL are passing
offshore near the coast. Occasional cigs from these clouds are
possible at coastal sites (10-20% chance) through 16z. Patchy FG has
developed in the southern Inland Empire, lowering VIS locally down
to 1/4SM. FG scatters out 16-18z Sat. Increasing low clouds based
2500-3500 ft MSL develop around coastal and foothill areas after 01-
03Z Sunday, and then fill in coverage into the inland areas, filling
the entire coastal basin by around 06z. VIS reductions where clouds
intersect with terrain.

VFR conditions prevail elsewhere.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Sunday night. A
storm system will generate strong winds and high and choppy seas
likely hazardous to small craft Monday, continuing through
Wednesday. Seas expected to be around 9-13 feet with wind gusts 25-
35 knots. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms over the
waters Monday afternoon/evening.

&&

.BEACHES...
Combined elevated swell (about 9-11 feet with an average period of
about 10-12 seconds) from the west and southwest (240-280 degrees)
will likely provide large breaking waves of 8-12 feet on most
beaches across Orange and San Diego Counties from Monday afternoon
through Wednesday. Widespread, strong rip currents are also likely
with these waves and dangerous swimming conditions are expected.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/HYDROLOGY...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink