Bolinas, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

221
FXUS66 KMTR 250550
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1050 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Mostly quiet weather pattern across the region with minor day-to-day
changes through Monday. A warming trend will kick off Tuesday and
warm to above seasonal averages by the Friday of the upcoming
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Satellite imagery shows stratus development across western Marin
County, the western San Mateo Peninsula, parts of the East Bay,
and the Monterey Bay region. The short- and medium-term forecast
remains on track. Looking into the longer term, there is still
some uncertainty on the development of a cut-off low. Analysis of
the ensemble model clusters reveals that the model guidance is
targeting southern California and Baja California for the low`s
location, but there is still considerable variety regarding its
exact strength and setup. A stronger or more northerly low
pressure system would increase the potential for offshore winds,
especially in the Central Coast, while weaker or more southerly
solutions would keep the greatest impacts to the south of our
region. Thus, confidence in any particular solution is too low to
deviate from the current forecast at this time.

DialH

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

A weak upper level trough continues to exit the region today. This
will allow temperatures this afternoon to warm into the upper 50s to
lower 60s near the coast where low clouds appear to have the
greatest probability of hanging around much of the day. Meanwhile,
the interior will warm into the mid/upper 70s to lower 80s. Breezy
west to northwest winds are expected this afternoon with gusts up to
35 mph along the coast and in the NW-SE oriented valleys.

Widespread low clouds look to return tonight and penetrate into the
coastal adjacent valleys as a solid marine layer remains in place.
Temperatures overnight will range from the upper 40s to low 50s.
Tomorrow, expect similar afternoon winds and temperatures as we have
today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 102 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

An upper level ridge will then build across the region beginning
Wednesday and last through next weekend. However, a cut-off low is
forecast to develop within the broader ridge and move towards Baja
California late in the upcoming week. The exact track/placement of
the cut-off low may impact temperatures and overall weather across
our region in the upcoming week. However, the overall trend is for
interior temperatures to warm to as much as 15 degrees above average
by Friday. Meanwhile, temperatures look to continue to be near
normal for coastal locations. Thus, the warmest interior locations
are likely to reach Moderate HeatRisk on Friday. This is advertised
with high confidence based on ensemble guidance and cluster
analysis. With some uncertainty with the position of the cut-off
low, be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast information.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1043 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Widespread MVFR CIGs are expected to fill in overnight with a low
potential for IFR-LIFR CIGs during the early morning hours. If
IFR- LIFR CIGs do develop, highest confidence is in their
development after 10Z with CIGs starting to rise around 15Z. CIGs
clear mid to late morning with VFR expected through the afternoon
before stratus returns along the coastline early tomorrow evening.
Winds shift northwesterly with locally gusty conditions expected
during the day. Low confidence that fog will develop with most
guidance showing minimal impacts to visibility.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR to IFR CIGs overnight becoming VFR by mid to
late morning. Moderate to high confidence in MVFR CIGs persisting
overnight with low to moderate confidence in CIGs becoming IFR after
09Z. Northwest winds remain breezy through the TAF period with gusty
winds developing during the day tomorrow. Guidance indicates some
potential for stratus to return towards the end of this TAF period
but timing is uncertain. For now, leaned towards LAMP probability
guidance which showed stratus reaching SFO after the end of this TAF
period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR to IFR CIGs are expected to persist
overnight before briefly clearing tomorrow afternoon. Any clearing
will be short lived, however, with MVFR CIGs to return by the early
evening hours. Confidence is decreasing in LIFR CIGs overnight but
there continues to remain a low chance particularly after 12Z.
Moderate northwest winds continue through the TAF period with
locally gusty winds expected at SNS during the afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Friday)
Issued at 913 PM PDT Sat May 24 2025

Fresh to strong northwest winds continue over the coastal waters
through the remainder of the weekend. Locally near gale force
gusts  are possible over the northern coastal waters but winds are
anticipated to diminish overnight. Winds temporarily diminish over
the outer coastal waters during the day on Sunday before
widespread  fresh to strong winds return Monday. Expect hazardous
marine  conditions to continue through the weekend into early next
week as  rough and hazardous seas linger.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for SF
     Bay N of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to
     Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RGass
LONG TERM....RGass
AVIATION...Kennedy
MARINE...Kennedy

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