Bodega Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

681
FXUS66 KMTR 102149
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
218 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

A pattern change begins on Sunday as upper level troughing sets up
over the Eastern Pac and then digs into PacNW. Cooler temperatures
are expected Sunday and Monday, with temperatures gradually warming
afterwards. Light rain and breezy winds will be possible with this
system, especially for areas north of the Golden Gate area, with
chances decreasing as you head south. Drier weather returns on
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages

-High temperatures on Sunday will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than
Saturday.
-Chances for rain slowly move in from the NW late Sunday into early
Monday, mainly for the North Bay Counties.

Stratus looks to return overnight and hug along our coast line,
while interior areas relatively clear. Any stratus that does develop
should eventually clear out by mid to late morning, leaving us with
a period of clear skies for the afternoon. The overall pattern
change begins on Sunday as upper level troughing sets up over the
Eastern Pac and then digs into PacNW throughout the day. Heights
will fall dropping putting our high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees
lower than they were on Saturday. Increasing clouds are expected
later in the day, with rain chances slowly creeping out from the NW.
Chances for rain gradually increase Sunday night into Monday morning
for the North Bay counties.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Messages

-Increasing chances for light rain through early Monday afternoon.
-The best chances for rain look to be north of the Golden Gate
region.
-Cooler temperatures Monday, warming trend begins Tuesday and
continues through the week.

Cool, breezy, and unsettled weather is expected on Monday as the
upper level low continues to dig and move eastward. Rain chances
look to increase through most of Monday morning before gradually
tapering off during the afternoon. Light and beneficial rain is
expected with the North Bay and San Francisco area seeing anywhere
between 0.05-0.25" of rain, with the larger amounts being observed
over the terrain. Elsewhere in the Bay Area and into the north
Central Coast, rainfall amounts look to be less than 0.10" of
accumulation.

As the low continues to track eastward Monday night into Tuesday,
we`ll be left in a post frontal environment. Ingredients for
thunderstorms are minimal, with instability likely being the
limiting factor. Current guidance suggests that should we clear we
should see at least some fair weather cumulus develop. In terms of
thunderstorms, confidence remains low, 10% OR less, in storms
developing. Should it happen, it seems areas with orographic lift
(terrain driven) have the best shot. This would be our interior
North Bay mountains, the Diablo and Gabilan ranges, and Cholame
hills. Opted to hint keep PoP and thunder out of the forecast at
this time but left some ghost PoP in to refer back to at later
forecasts should the signal become stronger. Once the trough clears
Tuesday, ridging builds in for mid to late week which will lead to
warming temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 AM PDT Sat May 10 2025

High confidence for VFR conditions to persist throughout the day and
into the evening. Onshore winds increase this afternoon and will
prevail through early evening with a FEW/SCT high clouds. Winds ease
overnight, but remain onshore for the Bay Area sites. Moderate
confidence for low ceilings to return early Sunday morning around
the Bay Area sites, KSTS, KHAF, and KMRY.

Vicinity of SFO...High confidence for VFR through early Sunday.
Winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 28 kt and then begin
to ease slightly overnight, yet are forecast to remain out of the
northwesterly direction. There is moderate confidence for MVFR
ceilings to develop early Sunday and should dissipate by around 19Z.
Winds increase once again by Sunday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...High confidence for VFR through early
Sunday. Onshore winds increase this afternoon and diminish this
evening. There is moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings to develop
early Sunday at KMRY.

&&

.MARINE...
(Tonight through next Thursday)
Issued at 217 PM PDT Sat May 10 2025

A moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze will persist across much
of the coastal waters through the weekend, with up to near gale
force gusts. Light rain will be possible on Monday as a frontal
passage moves across the region with diminishing winds in wake of
the frontal passage. Winds increase once again toward the middle
of the upcoming week. Moderate seas continue through the end of
the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ516.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N
     of Bay Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt
     Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KR
LONG TERM....KR
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
x.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea