Bodega Bay, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXUS66 KMTR 061150
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
450 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Impactful heat continues today. Widespread major-to-moderate
HeatRisk, and all Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are
in effect until 11 PM tonight. Some relief still coming up through
the beginning of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

If you`ve ever seen the movie "Groundhog Day", you`ll understand
what these last few night shifts have felt like. Currently seeing
some weak returns on the radar, which are elevated showers
associated with some lingering subtropical moisture above 10,000
feet. Once again, none of this is expected to make it to the
ground as the air below is still very dry. One notable change to
the short term forecast this morning are today`s forecast highs.
We have bumped them up just a touch given that we are starting the
day slightly warmer than we did yesterday. The issue with today is
that there is the potential for a southerly marine surge to impact
coastal areas, which would greatly limit the upper end of the
high temps. This makes for a very difficult forecast for areas
like Santa Cruz, the Peninsula coast, and San Francisco. Should
the southerly surge make it into the Ocean Beach/Sunset District
today, we could potentially be looking at a situation where there
is as much as a 25 degree temperature difference from one side of
San Francisco to the other. Regardless of what happens along the
coast, we will still be dealing with impactful heat elsewhere with
widespread moderate-to-major HeatRisk and high temperatures right
around what they were yesterday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Through the rest of this week, expect temperatures to be on the
downward trend starting Monday. We aren`t going to see a sharp
drop off the cliff, but a steady decline into mid week. Ensemble
guidance is depicting reasonably high confidence in a cooler
pattern through this week, which is very welcome news after the
week we`ve had. In terms of overall risk, there is still some risk
for impacts from warm temperatures on Monday as highs will still
be ranging from the lower-to-upper 90s inland and mid-60s to 80
along the coast. However, Monday would fall into the category of a
"moderate" heat scenario under the HeatRisk category, decreasing
from the extreme and major that we have had over the past seven
days. There will be lingering impacts, but those should start to
wane even more by Tuesday and Wednesday when we will see minor or
even little-to-no HeatRisk across the region. By the end of the
week, we have moderate confidence that high temps will be in the
80s inland and the 60s along the coast once again. For Saturday,
there is a decent plume of moisture associated with the trough
that could actually result in some measurable precip for the
northern zones. It may only be in the form of drizzle, but there
are a very select few ensemble members holding on the the chance
of a light rain event for the North Bay on Saturday. Very slim
chance, but we will certainly welcome the cooler temperatures and
even drizzle if we can get it.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 443 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

VFR through the TAF period. Expect light and variable winds
overnight through the early afternoon. More moderate winds affect
the region for the afternoon through the evening before tapering
off into the night.


Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Winds stay light
through the night and the morning before increasing to around 12 kts
in the mid afternoon before becoming light again Sunday night.



SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Expect light
and variable winds through the early afternoon. Moderate winds
return for the afternoon but weaken into the early night.


&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 233 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

Light to moderate winds combined with moderate swell will result
in relatively quiet seas through early Monday. Swells begin to
elevate into the work week with breezy to gusty northwest winds
building through Monday in the outer waters. These winds become
widespread in the midweek.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 911 PM PDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Record high temperatures and years of occurrence at the long term
climate stations October 6.

Station         Oct 6

Santa Rosa      102 1930
Kentfield        97 1930
Napa             96 1930
Richmond         91 1996
Livermore       100 2014
San Francisco    94 1992
SFO Airport      92 2023
Redwood City     99 1987
Half Moon Bay    87 1972
Oakland museum   93 2023
San Jose         95 2023
Salinas Airport  98 2023
King City       100 1996

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006-
     502>504-508-510-512>518.

     Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ506-509-
     528>530.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Monday to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for Pt
     Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 AM PDT Tuesday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Behringer
LONG TERM....Behringer
AVIATION...Murdock
MARINE...Murdock

Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco

Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea
www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea
www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea