Bear Valley, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

531
FXUS66 KHNX 162051
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
151 PM PDT Thu Oct 16 2025

.UPDATE...
Updated key messages section.

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.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Fog development expected for the San Joaquin Valley (along the
Highway 99 corridor) Friday (50-60% chance for quarter mile
visibility) and Saturday (30-40% chance for quarter mile visibility).

2. Drier and calmer conditions will prevail from this Wednesday
and into the weekend before another trough slides in next
Monday.

3. Probability of reaching 75 degrees will rise to 60% to 80%
by Friday with a 20% to 40% chance of reaching 80 degrees during
the weekend.

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.DISCUSSION...
Quiet weather now expected to dominate the region with warming
temperatures and spotty morning fog favored across Central
California. With the storm producing widespread 1 to 2 inches of
rain (1 to 2 feet of snow), low level humidity now able to
support fog generation as the threat will exist during the early
morning hours. This pattern will persist through at least the
end of the week.

A ridge of high pressure pushing onto the West Coast will allow
for a warm-up as temperatures return to near normal values
during the weekend. Probability of Exceedance of reaching 80
degrees shows a steady rise with percentages near 60 percent by
Saturday. During the same time frame, the west side of the San
Joaquin Valley shows a range of 70% to 90% which increases
confidence in that area able to reach the 80 degree mark.

In terms of fog development, ensemble visibility analysis shows
the best timing of fog near sunrise for at least the next two
mornings. Probability of having visibility drop below 2 miles ranges
from 60% to 70% for Friday morning. For the same period, the
probability of falling below one quarter mile is to 50% to 60%.

Current projections has the next disturbance near Yosemite by
Monday afternoon with the bulk of the disturbances energy
remaining north of Central California.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the central California
interior through 09Z Fri. Areas of patchy fog developing in the
San Joaquin Valley approaching 12Z. 30 to 50 percent chance for
IFR conditions or less at KFAT, KMER, KMCE, and KVIS until 18Z.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.



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.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...Molina
aviation....McCoy

weather.gov/hanford