Avila Beach, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

361
FXUS66 KLOX 240736
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1136 PM PST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...23/800 PM.

Unsettled weather with periods of rain is expected at times for
southwest California into next week, with more widespread
moderate rain possible late Sunday through Tuesday, focused across
the Central Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-TUE)...23/759 PM.

***UPDATE***

A rain band that moved across Southwest California today has for
the most part exited the area. Cool, unsettled weather will
continue through Sunday afternoon and into the evening with
occasional light rain or drizzle possible. Additional rainfall
through the afternoon will be under 0.10 inch except possibly up
to 0.15 inch in the San Gabriel Mountains. Overnight lows will be
in the 40s to lower 50s tonight, with mid to upper 30s across the
interior areas and lower mountains. Sunday`s highs will be cooler
than normal, and similar to what was observed today.

A more impactful system with a weak atmospheric river will bring
more extensive periods of rain to the area Sunday night through
Tuesday, and potentially into Wednesday. Again the highest
rainfall totals will be across Santa Barbara and especially San
Luis Obispo County, with amounts decreasing into Ventura and LA
Counties.

***From Previous Discussion***

Low to moderate confidence Sunday night through at least Tuesday
associated with a weak atmospheric river expected to develop
across the Central Coast late Sunday and potentially continue
through Tuesday. The main uncertainty is with the exact location
where exactly the atmospheric river sets up for the longest period
of time. As of now, the center of the atmospheric river is most
likely to focus on San Luis Obispo and Monterey Counties, although
it will likely target areas further south at times, but
potentially in a weakened state. Rainfall rates will generally be
light to moderate, although occasionally heavier rainfall is
possible, especially for the coastal foothills and mountains north
of Point Conception. Rainfall totals of 1.5-3 inches will likely
be common for San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara Counties with
local 4+ inch amounts possible in the Santa Lucia mountains. Most
areas of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties will see less than an
inch, perhaps even less than a quarter inch in some areas, with
the exception of greater than an inch possible in the higher
terrain. Advisory level, minor flooding may be possible,
especially across the Central Coast and adjacent mountains.

Increased moisture and clouds associated with the atmospheric
river will continue the warming trend for overnight lows with
below average daytime temperatures likely continuing through
Tuesday.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...23/206 PM.

Below normal forecast confidence for Wednesday through Friday
including Thanksgiving with up to a 20 percent chance of rain each
day as a compact weakening storm system lurks offshore and may
eventually move ashore during this period or weaken and remain
mainly offshore. Heading into next weekend we may move into an
offshore or Santa Ana type wind pattern with warming and drying
trends, although confidence remains low in this time period as
well.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0734Z.

At 0559Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs. Spotty light rain is expected
to continue south of Point Conception through around 12Z Sun.

For all coasts and valleys, conditions will bounce between flight
categories frequently, especially during rain, and dense fog with
VSBY of 1/4-1/2SM is possible (40% chance) at times through 17Z
Sun.

Rain chances will starting up again around 02Z Mon for north of
Point Conception.

KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions will bounce
frequently between flight categories, and there is a 40% chance
of periods of dense fog with VSBY of 1/4-1/2SM through 17Z Sun. An
east wind component up to around 6 kt is possible until 14Z Sun,
then no significant east wind component expected there on after.

KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Conditions will bounce
frequently between flight categories, and there is a 30% chance
of periods of dense fog with VSBY of 1/4-1/2SM through 17Z Sun.

&&

.MARINE...23/759 PM.

For the Outer Waters, moderate to high confidence in current
forecast. Through Sunday night, winds and seas will remain below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels. For Monday, there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds across PZZ670/676. From Monday night
through Thursday, winds and seas are expected to be below SCA
levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 30% chance of SCA level
winds for PZZ645 on Monday. Then, winds and seas are expected to
remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, high confidence
that winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Sunday for zones
      88-340>342-346>352-354>358-362-366>375-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Munroe/Smith
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Munroe/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox