Arcata, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

006
FXUS66 KEKA 061126
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
426 AM PDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Well above normal temperatures continue across the
interior today. A more fall-like pattern arrives this week, bringing
temperatures down to near-normal and potentially rain by the end of
the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures will continue to be well above average
across the interior today as high pressure continues to dominate.
Most valleys are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s, with triple
digits possible in the warmer valleys of Mendocino and Lake
Counties. Weak offshore flow continues to disrupt stratus and bring
low to mid 70s to coastal Mendocino, well above average. An influx
of mid-level moisture from the southwest will bring a few high
clouds to Mendocino and Lake counties today. High-res models do show
some reflectivity, but the lower levels look very dry. Any rain that
does fall will likely evaporate before hitting the ground, but a few
isolated sprinkles is not completely out of the question.

Temperatures are forecast to begin to gradually trend downward
starting Monday as high pressure begins to weaken. A shortwave
moving north of the area Wednesday will continue to moderate
temperatures, potentially bringing enough moisture and disrupt
offshore wind enough to bring back coastal stratus. Another trough
moving through Friday could bring a chance for rain. NBM
probabilities show a 50-60% chance of 0.1 inch of rain or more in
Del Norte and Humboldt Counties and a 20-40% chance in Mendocino,
Lake, and Trinity Counties. Uncertainty still remains high with this
system and the picture will become clearer in the coming days. JB


&&

.AVIATION...Conditions are VFR this morning with continued light
offshore flow aiding in maintaining dryer low levels. There have
been indications of shallow, ground fog formation, and HREF holds a
30% chance for visibility less than 1 mile very briefly this morning
around Humboldt Bay. There is some stratus forming along the S
Oregon coast this morning, and some guidance attempts to send it
around Cape Blanco and closer to the North Coast today and tonight.
Probabilities of LIFR CIGS are very low, but do increase closer to
the end of this 12Z TAF period (up to 40%). Prevailing VFR
conditions at KUKI through the TAF period.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will persist through much of next week as
the thermal trough remains strong over the interior in response to
continued warm temperatures over the western states. However, with a
broad trough over the eastern Pacific, the pressure gradient will
remain not particularly tight over the waters limiting the strength
of the northerly winds. Accelerated winds around Cape Mendocino in
the southern waters will generate gusts in excess of 25 kts. Winds
and short period seas will increase in the southern waters Monday,
likely requiring Small Craft Advisories. A long period WNW swell
will build to around 6 ft at 15 seconds on Monday as well. Winds and
short period seas will be low for the northern inners creating a
sneaker wave risk.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions continue today with
daytime RH remaining in the teens. Afternoon breezes will elevate
fire weather conditions. Gustier WNW winds of up to 25 mph in
exposed areas are possible Monday in Mendocino and Lake Counties,
bringing locally critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures
begin to trend downward and RH recoveries begin to improve through
the rest of the week. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Monday
     afternoon for CAZ101-103.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka
https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka

For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png