Allensworth, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS66 KHNX 201712
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1012 AM PDT Sun Jul 20 2025


KEY MESSAGES...

1. Showers and thunderstorms developing across the Sierra
Nevada Crest with a 10 to 30 percent chance through tonight,
especially for Tulare county.

2. Probability of greater than 0.10" of rain is 10%-30% in the
high Sierra of Fresno and Tulare counties through tonight, thus
some dry lightning strikes will occur.

3. Nocturnal thunderstorms can occur in this weather pattern,
not just reserved to afternoon and evening.

4. Long string of cooler temperatures and breezy conditions for
the middle of next week, with some fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION...
Moisture will reach a maximum across the high Sierra and
eastern Kern crests through tonight, from the disturbance near
Baja California. Upslope flow along the high Sierra in
combination with the elevated instability will also contribute
to showers and thunderstorms through tonight. For several runs,
high resolution near term models have focused thunderstorms in
the high Sierra of Tulare County, but the overall atmospheric
profile suggests that showers and thunderstorms, in the most
extreme case, will stretch from south to north along the Sierra
Crest and through the Kern County Mountains and Deserts with a
10%-30% probability.

Any thunderstorms producing less than a tenth of an inch of
rain, or lightning strikes far from the center of any storm,
can contribute to fire starts also.

Like yesterday, some thunderstorms may near Kern County, which
may be close to the sensitive Borel Burn Scar and the currently
burning Kay Fire, which would lead to erratic changes in wind
direction and speed which are very dangerous for the firefighter
on scene. Again although some of these outcomes are worst
case/low probability, they still deserve our attention.

As the Baja Low disappears, the moisture flow cuts off, leading
to a dry and hotter day today. After a respite of 100F, the
probability of high temperatures reaching that mark climbs to
40% for Fresno to Bakersfield and points just east of I-5 this
afternoon.

However, any chances of a heat wave quickly diminish as another
trough builds along the entire west coast into midweek. This
scenario has happened many times this summer, but becomes more
and more unusual into mid July. 100F Probabilities disappear,
and cities like Merced in the north valley may not even reach
90F (60%-80% Probability) next Tuesday and Wednesday. A few
locations on the valley floor may approach record low Maximum
afternoon temperatures (20 to 30%) in the upper 80s by Tuesday
and Wednesday.

With the arrival of cooler air, gusty winds will develop which
is unusual for this time of year. Current expectations are for
50%-70% Probabilities of Wind Gusts of 25 mph or more for the
valley floor, even Fresno, Tuesday and Wednesday. Best outcomes
would be temperatures around 90F with an unusually persistent
July breeze, worst case scenario would be that drier air along
with gusty winds contributes to increased fire danger and spread
potential.

Cluster and ensemble guidance largely agree in the depiction of
west coast troughing, but disagree with regards to its strength.
The most extreme solutions close off an area of Low pressure
aloft which would be the breeziest and cooler solution, although
that is not expected.

Into next weekend, cluster and ensemble guidance lifts the
trough away to varying amounts, with ridging moving from the
southern plains over the four corners region, leading to
increasing temperatures and slightly increased probabilities for
mountain thunderstorms.

&&

AVIATION...
There remains a low (5-15%) chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains and desert. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and
mainly light winds (8-12kts) during the day and light and
variable winds (2-4kts) shortly before and after sunrise.

&&

AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&


.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

public...SM
aviation....Hatch

weather.gov/hanford