Van Buren, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

686
FXUS64 KTSA 221610
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1010 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New SHORT TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 321 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

  - Significant warming trend this weekend; above normal
    temperatures next week.

  - Weak cold front on Wednesday will bring slightly cooler, but
    still above normal, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1010 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

As of mid morning, surface high pressure center had moved east and
southeast of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas allowing for
west to southerly winds to be common across the region. The mid
level shortwave from yesterday had also departed off to the east
creating mostly clear conditions. Surface temperatures have
responded by warming into the upper 20s to mid 30s, which is about
5 to 15 deg on average warmer than 24-hrs ago.

Through this afternoon, mostly clear conditions with west to
southwesterly winds are expected for the CWA. Low to mid level
winds aloft are also expected to become westerly which will aid in
the eastward expansion of the low level thermal ridge back into
the Southern Plains. The combination of these features will help
afternoon temperatures climb into the 40s for most locations
across the CWA, with near 50 deg over the far western portion of
the CWA. With these temperatures, a decent amount of snow melt is
expected today.

For the morning update, have added minor tweaks to hourly
temp/dewpoint trends to account for the rate of warming this
morning, and also upped winds just a tick based on latest obs.
The rest of the forecast looks to be in good shape at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

The warming trend will continue Sunday and Monday, with most
places nearing 60 degrees Sunday afternoon, and 70 degrees Monday
afternoon. Above normal temperatures will then persist through all
of next week, although a weak cold front Wednesday will knock a
few degrees off the temperatures Wednesday and Thursday. The NBM
came in dry for Wednesday`s frontal passage, and ran with that for
now, but there remains a very low (10%) chance for a few light
showers across mainly northwest Arkansas and far eastern Oklahoma
Wednesday. Otherwise, dry conditions will prevail all of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the valid period at
all area sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  27  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  25  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   49  27  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   43  20  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   43  23  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   42  25  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   46  25  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   39  24  55  34 /   0   0   0   0
F10   49  26  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   49  28  61  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...10