Rogers, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

879
FXUS64 KMEG 201707
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

- Dangerous heat and humidity will persist this week with Extreme
  Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories across the Mid-South.

- High temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 90s from
  Monday through at least Wednesday, with afternoon heat index
  values ranging between 105 and 115.

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will provide localized relief
  from the oppressive heat for a few areas, mainly across north
  Mississippi and near the Tennessee River.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Saturday)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Another hot and humid day across the Mid-South is unfolding with
temperatures already approaching the 90s and dew point
temperatures in the mid 70s. This has led to several locations
already reaching 105 for heat index values, with these values
expect to climb into the afternoon hours. Some isolated convection
across the eastern half of the CWA could provide some temporary
relief to the heat, but coverage is expected to remain fairly
scattered.

Tomorrow will begin our upward trend towards an even more
oppressive heat, with temperatures rising into the mid to upper
90s for our high temperatures. While dew point temps may fall a
few degrees, this will bring little relief to the oppressive heat.
Heat index values are expected to exceed 105 for much of the Mid-
South beginning tomorrow through at least Wednesday, with some
locations across AR, MO, NW MS, and West TN exceeding 110. An
Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for tomorrow for these
locations, with a Heat Advisory for the remaining locations not
included in the warning. Heat headlines will be needed again
Tuesday, Wednesday, and for some locations Thursday, but will
assess the exact locations on a daily basis.

The upper-level ridge and corresponding surface high pressure
that is driving this pattern will be the strongest on Wednesday,
which will likely be our warmest day for the week. NBM
probabilities suggest over a 60% chance of Memphis reaching 100
degrees Wednesday afternoon, so if were were to make a run at
triple digits, Wednesday appears to have the best chance. Upper-
level ridge will begin to drift eastward by Thursday, which could
allow some additional afternoon convection and temperatures that
are a degree or two cooler. While we do get weeks like this every
summer, that does not mean the potential impacts are not real.
Multiple days of 95+ high temperatures with overnight temperatures
only cooling to the upper 70s will lead to heat-related impacts.
Please use extra caution if you must be outside in the afternoons,
take breaks when needed, stay hydrated, and know the symptoms for
heat-related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Isolated convection has started firing along a weak boundary
oriented from Paris, TN to Clarksdale MS. As such, omitted precip
from MEM and JBR altogether. MEM is a little bit more of a
question mark due to its proximity to the boundary but will amend
if needed. Would not be surprised if none of the terminals
receive any rain this afternoon; coverage is much more sparse
than it was yesterday. Southwest winds continue to prevail between
5-10 kts. Looks like we will have an altoCu deck tomorrow
afternoon with even less precip coverage than today.

CAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

No fire weather concerns for the foreseeable future, with minRH
values remaining above 40%. Hot and humid conditions will
continue.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ009-018-
     026>028.

 Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ035-036-048-049-
     058.

 Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MOZ113-115.

 Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ113-115.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ001>005-007-008
 -010>012-020.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ001-007-
 008-010>012-020

 Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ002>006-009-
     013>017-021>024.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ001>004-
     019>022-048-050>052.

 Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TNZ049-053>055-
     088>092.

     Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ001>004-
 019>022-048>052-088-089.

 Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Monday for TNZ053>055-
     090>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...CAD