North Little Rock, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

443
FXUS64 KLZK 231116
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
616 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Heat and humidity will remain the primary forecast concern and
hazard for the short term period. High heat and moisture levels will
remain underneath the upper ridge...which is centered to the NE of
AR this Mon. Temps will once again warm into the upper 80s to mid
90s both today and Tue afternoons...with dewpts in the upper 60s to
upper 70s. The highest dewpts will be over the SERN half or so of
the area...which will result in the highest heat index values. Many
areas will see heat index values in the upper 90s to over 100...with
the SERN half or two-thirds of the area seeing peak heat index
values over 105. Will keep the Heat Adv in place for this region of
the CWA. May have to extend this Heat Adv into Tue for the same
reasons...but the spatial placement may need some changes.

Beyond the heat and humidity...some chances for isolated afternoon
convection will return to the forecast this Mon on the SWRN
periphery of the upper ridge. This potential for afternoon
convection will continue into Tue as well...mainly isolated to
widely scattered in nature. Expect best POPs during the peak heating
of each afternoon...with coverage of precip decreasing during the
overnight and morning hrs. While the overall threat for strong to
SVR Wx will remain low...an isolated strong to briefly SVR storm
could be seen each afternoon. The primary threat with the strongest
convection will be downburst winds...and maybe some marginally SVR
hail. Locally heavy rainfall may also be seen.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 227 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Summer time pattern will be in full swing across the region during
the long term period. Aloft, a ridge of high pressure will
retrograde towards the Srn MS Valley from the Ern CONUS. This will
preclude any appreciable PoP chances outside of diurnally driven
convection across the state. An upper level closed-low will slide
towards the region from the FL Panhandle heading towards the
weekend. This system is anticipated to become stationary over the SE
CONUS with the aforementioned upper ridge positioned across the state
bound by a weak shortwave trough progressing across the Nrn CONUS.
At the surface, S/SW flow will be in place keeping a tropical
airmass and warm temperatures in place through at least Sunday.

High temperatures are expected to range from the lower to middle
90s, perhaps upper 90s, with lows falling into the 70s to near 80
degrees. Heat index values are currently anticipated to range from
95 to less than 105 degrees across the Wrn two-thirds of AR
(Moderate Heat Risk/ at times High Heat Risk), and 105-110 degrees
across the Ern one-third of AR (basically the Delta region of AR;
High Heat Risk/ at times Extreme Heat Risk). Given these expected
conditions, heat headlines may be needed over the Delta region of AR
mid-week into the weekend.

Compared to average, temperatures are forecast to range from 5-10
degrees above climatological averages for the date. Looking at
weather related fatalities for all categorical hazards, heat takes
first place by a decent margin with the 10-year average (177 deaths)
and 30-year average (238 deaths) which surpasses flooding deaths
(second place) with a 10 year average of 145 fatalities and 30 year
average of 113 fatalities. So it is important to take heat safety
serious and if outdoors working, allow plenty of time for breaks if
possible and drink plenty of water. If possible, try to move outdoor
activities to early morning and late afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

High pressure will bring VFR conds to the state through the TAF
period. Scattered Cu is expected today, however no aviation
related impacts are expected. A few widely scattered afternoon
SHRA/TSRA are possible but due to low confidence at any given
location, opted to exclude at terminals attm. Winds will become
S/SE at around 10 kts on Mon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     75  92  76  94 /  10  20   0  10
Camden AR         74  94  74  97 /   0  20   0  10
Harrison AR       71  89  72  89 /   0  20   0  10
Hot Springs AR    74  93  75  93 /   0  20   0  10
Little Rock   AR  76  93  76  94 /  10  20   0  10
Monticello AR     76  93  75  95 /  10  20   0  10
Mount Ida AR      74  92  73  92 /   0  30   0  10
Mountain Home AR  73  90  73  91 /   0  30   0  20
Newport AR        77  95  78  96 /  10  20   0  10
Pine Bluff AR     75  93  75  94 /  10  20   0  10
Russellville AR   75  93  75  93 /  10  20   0  10
Searcy AR         74  93  75  95 /  10  20   0  10
Stuttgart AR      77  93  77  95 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
for ARZ007-008-016-017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-053>057-
062>069-123.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70
AVIATION...70