Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

920
FXUS64 KSHV 230919
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
319 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

High pressure remains dominate across the Four State Region this
morning as another night of cooling continues. ASOS/AWOS
observations advertise a mix of 30`s and 40`s across the area, under
mostly clear skies. T/Td separation is not much this morning so
there is a chance that patchy fog does develop through the early
morning, especially across area lakes and rivers as the colder
airmass lingers through sunrise. By the afternoon, a mix of clear
skies and southerly surface winds will support afternoon maxT`s
climbing above 70 deg F for many as a steady warming trend occurs
through the weekend. That warming trend will translate overnight as
persistant southerlies will allow for a range of 40`s and 50`s to
replace the 30`s and 40`s present this morning.

As the surface ridge becomes displaced east of the local area
Sunday AM, a tightening pressure gradient from an elongated
surface trough across the Plains, extending north into the
Midwest, will reinforce local southerly and southwesterly winds,
becoming increasingly elevated through Sunday afternoon/evening.
Sustained 10-15 mph winds will be accompanied by gusts between
20-25 mph at times. This still falls below the criteria for a Wind
Advisory, but worth monitoring today for any changes in the
guidance. All of this will precede back to back frontal boundaries
later in the period. Highs on Sunday, will approach 80 deg F with
many in the upper 70`s and flirting with the low 80`s.

KNAPP

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

By Monday, a cold front will be quickly racing towards the local
area, likely entering the NW zones around lunch time. Timing of the
front, speed, and other factors such as local instability all look
to keep this front dry as it passes through. For now, advertising
only SChc and a very narrow corridor of Chc PoPs across the extreme
SE zones of the CWA through the late afternoon and evening. That
being said, confidence is higher that most of the area receives no
measurable precip when compared to those that see rain. Behind the
front, temperatures for Tuesday will be slashed by 10-15 deg F when
compared to Monday, returning to more seasonable values as the
synoptic pattern aloft flattens out, becoming zonal.

Unfortunately, average temps will not last long as southerlies
return once again for Wednesday, supporting an increase in local
moisture return (humidity) and temps in the low to mid 70`s as a
warm front lifts north across the zones. This is in advance of
another cold front that is progged to work into the region early
Thursday AM. The dynamics of this mid-week system are sloppy. That
being said, rain chances are higher when compared to the previous
front as local instability parameters are higher. It is worth
mentioning that even though rain chance percentile coverage is
greater for Thursday when compared to Monday, morning guidance is
not bullish that everyone will see rain. Still, there remains plenty
of time to monitor and adjust PoPs accordingly.

Behind the Thanksgiving front, temperatures will fall to near or
just below normal. Guidance does point to below normal highs for
many, but we will need to see how this output evolves through the
upcoming week before locking that in for certain. Bottom line,
multiple frontal passages in the next 7 days will present the
opportunity for near normal temperatures and chances at rainfall.

KNAPP

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1032 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

Thin cirrus will continue infiltrating portions of our airspace
overnight but VFR conditions should prevail through the 24hr TAF
cycle. Latest HRRR is suggesting the possibility of some patchy
fog developing after midnight and closer towards sunrise but the
probability of this impacting any of our airports looks remote at
this time so it will be best to handle this with an AMD if
necessary. Look for winds to become mostly calm overnight with SE
to S winds returning on Saturday by late morning with speeds
generally under 10kts.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  48  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  69  39  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  42  73  58 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  71  47  76  63 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  69  41  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  73  53  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  72  49  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  73  50  79  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...13