Magnolia, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

297
FXUS64 KSHV 201725
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1225 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - Oppressively hot conditions will continue throughout much of
   this coming week.

 - Dry conditions will continue as well through at least midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

The early afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates a healthy
cu field that has developed over much of E TX/N LA, which should
continue to spread NNE into extreme NE TX/SW AR/SE OK through the
rest of the afternoon. Meanwhile, upper ridging was centered over
the Nrn Gulf, with a weak seabreeze having recently developed over
portions of extreme SE TX away from the ridge center. However,
mosaic radar imagery has shown that this convection has been
struggling to move much farther N away from the coast, although
the visible imagery depicts that some towering cu is trying to
develop farther N over portions of SE TX and along the Lower
Sabine Valley. Still can`t rule out very isolated -SHRA developing
this afternoon over portions of Deep E TX/Lower Toledo Bend
Country, with the cu field quickly diminishing by/shortly after
sunset. Even with the mostly clear sky overnight, light S winds
should maintain enough mixing such that temps will only slowly
fall into the mid/upper 70s.

Upper ridging remains progged to build N into the Lower MS Valley
this evening/overnight, becoming centered over much of LA Monday.
Drier air should also begin to mix down to the sfc as well, which
should allow for dewpoints to mix out a bit more than what has
been observed in recent days in the presence of the very tropical
air mass in place. With temps expected to climb another degree or
so with increasing subsidence beneath the ridge, heat indices
should again exceed 105 degrees over much of the region, and thus,
have extended the existing Heat Advisory for all but the Wrn
sections of E TX through 01Z Tuesday. However, some of these areas
particularly over portions of E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR may not
reach criteria giving the extent of slightly better mixing
expected.

A continued uptick in the heat will continue through midweek as
the ridging aloft begins to expand NNE and amplify before drifting
into the TN/OH Vallies, with the likelihood of heat headlines
continuing for portions of the region. However, the displacement
of the ridge center should allow for Erly waves to undercut the
ridge along the Gulf coast by Thursday, with the various
ensembles suggesting the potential for an increase in scattered
convection by Friday into next weekend, especially across N
LA/Lower E TX.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

SW to NE CU field holding steady this afternoon around or just below
5kft at most terminals. For the most part, this has generally been a
split between FEW/SCT, with little to no impacts convectively through
the afternoon. Hi-res does suggest that some of the flat CU present
across the airspace may try to grow taller in the next few hours,
with a stray shower or storm becoming a result of this. That
being said, confidence was not high enough to include at this
time. The early evening and most of the overnight period should
fair mostly SKC, with the exception of a passing band of high
clouds around FL250. An early band of FEW/SCT below 2kft may
materialize across the southern and central airspace around or
shortly after 12z, but guidance has been adamant that we should
see a less ambitious display of VFR CU tomorrow afternoon as
ridging builds in. If anything does develop overnight, it should
clear out. Short term impacts outside of the potential for a stray
shower this afternoon will be the tight pressure gradient winds
at the terminals, resulting in sustained 10kt winds with gust near
15kt at times through the evening. These should be lower through
the afternoon tomorrow citing the influential ridge, while
maintaining a S/SW component.

KNAPP

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  99  77  99 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  76  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  72  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  79 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  75  97  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  77  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  76  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  75  96  74  96 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.

TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ097-112-126-137-138-
     150>153-165>167.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...53