Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

452
FXUS64 KTSA 111848
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
148 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 148 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

  - Warming trend into the weekend, with Sunday expected to be
    the warmest day of 2025 thus far.

  - Limited fire weather concerns in northeast Oklahoma on
    Sunday, with gusty southerly winds and well above normal
    temperatures ahead of a cold front.

  - Rain and thunderstorm chances (20-40%) return by mid-late week
    next week, along with another cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Beautiful weather conditions have transpired today courtesy of
high pressure that is in control across the region. Northerly
winds have remained breezy in portions eastern OK and western AR
as an upper-level trough continues to exit east of the area. Winds
are expected to decrease and veer more easterly this evening and
eventually southeasterly overnight tonight as high pressure shifts
eastward. Overnight lows tonight will range from low-mid 40s
under mostly clear skies for most locations.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through next Friday)
Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

Mid/upper-level ridging will remain intact overhead Saturday and
into Sunday as surface high pressure shifts east of the forecast
area. This will allow southerly winds to return by Saturday
morning, bringing in warmer temperatures through the upcoming
weekend. The surface pressure gradient is forecast to strengthen
beginning Saturday as an upper-level shortwave trough moves
across the Pacific Northwest and over the Northern Plains by
Sunday. Southerly gusts 25-30 mph will be common Saturday
afternoon due to a deepening surface low across the Plains. Sunday
still looks to be the warmest and windiest day of the long-term
period as both the upper-level and surface low strengthen and move
over the Upper Midwest region. Modest to strong downslope flow
will occur ahead of an approaching cold front, causing
temperatures to spike into the low-mid 80s for most locations. The
warmest temperatures will likely occur along and west of Highway
75 in OK, where temperatures will rise into the upper 80s, perhaps
near 90 degrees in spots. Winds will remain gusty through the
afternoon, with widespread gusts 30-35 mph, especially north of
I-40. These unseasonably warm temperatures and gusty winds will
raise fire weather concerns across much of the forecast area, with
highest wildfire conditions occurring west of Highway 75 where
the highest temperatures and lowest relative humidity values will
occur.

The cold front remains on track to move through Monday morning
and into the afternoon, with no precipitation associated with it.
High temperatures will drop back to near or slightly below average
across the northern half of the CWA behind the front. North winds
will be gusty for a time behind the front before subsiding toward
the end of the day.

Low rain/storm chances (20-30%) return as early as late Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning as a warm front works its way
northward through the area, associated with mid-level shortwave
trough. Still lots of uncertainty, with run-to-run model
discontinuity, regarding the synoptic and mesoscale setup by
midweek. Continued to run with NBM guidance at this time, which
keeps low-medium shower/thunder chances (20-40%) associated with
another cold front that is forecast to arrive on Thursday
afternoon/evening. Still too early to determine any type of severe
potential at this time.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

VFR conditions are likely through the period. Gusty northerly
winds at the W AR sites and MLC will diminish late afternoon into
the evening, with a shift to southerly winds at all sites except
FSM by mid morning tomorrow. Expect gustiness at the E OK sites
beginning mid to late morning tomorrow as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   46  78  60  87 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   46  78  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   46  78  61  86 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  78  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   39  75  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  72  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   45  76  60  85 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   42  74  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
F10   46  78  62  87 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   46  75  57  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22