Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

242
FXUS64 KTSA 141914
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
214 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

  - Weak cold front passes Thursday with low thunderstorm chances
    southeast OK / northwest AR.

  - A more unsettled weather pattern develops by the end of the
    week and continues through the weekend into early next week.
    Severe weather potential likely increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Near record heat is in progress across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas this afternoon, and along with a notable
increase in low level moisture in the past 24 hours, has resulted
in widespread heat index values in the 90s and a few spots in
southeast Oklahoma approaching triple digit heat indices. With a
few hours of heating still to go, record temperatures remain a
possibility. Winds will stay up enough overnight to keep
temperatures from dropping off appreciably, especially after the
hot afternoon. A weak cold front remains on track to move into
parts of northeast Oklahoma toward daybreak, leading to a drop off
near and behind the front late tonight. Overnight lows were
adjusted using the short term blend, which raised temperatures
ahead of the front a couple of degrees while also dropping
temperatures a couple of degrees in the far northwest corner of
the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Much of the remainder of the forecast will be an active one with
multiple periods featuring at least isolated severe weather
potential. The aforementioned cold front remains likely to push
to just south of the I-44 corridor tomorrow before washing out.
An isolated storm or two may develop along and south of the
residual boundary from southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas,
mainly during the afternoon and evening Thursday, with high
instability and sufficient deep layer shear supporting severe
weather with any storms that are able to develop. An increasing
low level jet late Thursday night into Friday morning ahead of
another will lead to isolated shower and thunderstorm development
around daybreak from southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas
ahead of another weak cold front set to move into the region
during the day Friday. This front will focus isolated to scattered
development during the afternoon across the same part of the
forecast area, with environmental conditions again supporting a
severe weather threat with a few storms.

Although isolated thunderstorm potential remains during the day
Saturday, increasing coverage and chance of showers and
thunderstorms remains on deck toward the middle to latter part of
the weekend, continuing into early next week. This is the result
of a strong upper level low developing in the western United
States and the arrival of southwest flow aloft in advance of it. A
wave ahead of the main system remains on track to move through
the region Saturday night, with subsequent impulses moving
northeastward through the region into Sunday and Sunday night.
Each one of these will bring an increase in thunderstorm coverage
and some potential for severe weather and locally heavy rainfall.
The upper low finally looks to eject into the Plains Monday and
into Tuesday which will signal an uptick in the overall severe
weather potential, with the details of such tied to the eventual
evolution of the system. Keep an eye on forecasts over the next
few days.

The middle of next week still looks to signal the arrival of a
more quiescent period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Surface boundary moves through the CWA this afternoon with
southerly winds common for the TAF sites. Winds this
evening/tonight should remain southerly for most locations while
gusty/strong winds aloft continue over the region. Thus, will add
low level wind shear to all TAF sites tonight. Another frontal
boundary is forecast to move into the CWA Thursday morning with a
westerly wind shift. A slight chance of rain/storms becomes
possible Thursday morning across southeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas ahead of the front. For now will hold off on mentioning
in the TAFs due to uncertainty of coverage impacting any one
terminal. VFR conditions are forecast through the period with few
to broken high clouds over the CWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  67  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   91  73  88  68 /   0   0  20  20
MLC   93  72  85  66 /   0  10  10  10
BVO   90  62  84  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   87  72  85  63 /   0   0  20  10
BYV   85  72  85  63 /   0   0  10  10
MKO   91  72  83  62 /   0   0  10  10
MIO   87  70  82  59 /   0   0   0   0
F10   93  69  83  62 /   0   0  10   0
HHW   93  71  86  69 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...20