Fort Smith, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

380
FXUS64 KTSA 201801
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
101 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

 - A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the forecast area
   through 8 PM this evening and all of the forecast area on Monday.

 - Dangerous heat will persist all week. Additional heat headlines
   are likely.

 - The forecast is mostly dry, but some low afternoon storm chances
   (10-20%) will be possible, mainly in the terrain of W AR and SE OK
   next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Not a whole lot of changes were made from the previous forecast
through tonight. Upper-level ridging continues to dominate and
influence surface conditions this afternoon. Lee-side surface low
pressure across southwestern KS has already increased
south/southwest winds early this afternoon, with gusts 20-25 mph
across much of the area. Occasional gusts up to 30 mph are possible,
especially along and west of Highway 75 in northeast OK, through
sunset. Winds will subside thereafter, but are expected to remain
somewhat elevated (5-15 mph) through the evening and overnight hours
tonight.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for all of eastern OK and west-
central AR through 8 PM this evening for heat index values up to 109
degrees. After sunset, anticipate another mild and muggy night, with
overnight lows ranging from the mid-upper 70s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

Very similar conditions are expected on Monday as the center of
upper-level ridge begins to shift northward over the Lower
Mississippi River Valley. A lee-side surface low will remain
centered across western/central KS and keep south/southwest winds
breezy again through the daytime. Overall, model guidance shows
temperatures on Monday increasing a degree or two compared to today.
This seems reasonable with the ridge expanding and building further
west a little. With that said, went ahead and issued another Heat
Advisory between noon and 8 PM and included all OK and AR counties
in the forecast area. A few locations, particularly in the higher
elevations across far northwest AR and far southeast OK, may stay
just below advisory criteria by a degree or two. Nevertheless, the
heat impacts will still be the same. Taking all heat precautions, if
spending a prolonged period outdoors, is strongly advised.

Guidance continues to suggest slightly lower dewpoint temperatures
towards the middle part of the week, which may limit the afternoon
heat index values to some degree. However, even if this verifies,
dangerous heat will still occur and heat headlines will likely be
needed each day for at least some portions of the forecast area.
Longer-range model guidance hints at a couple of shortwave troughs
passing to the northwest/north late in the week and into next
weekend. Though best deep-layer moisture and precipitation chances
should stay north and closer to the shortwaves, they may produce
enough lift for some low-end chances as they move across the central
CONUS. Models seem to focus on slight precipitation chances on the
eastern periphery of the upper ridge as it shifts over the TX/OK
Panhandles by Saturday. Added some mentionable (and non-mentionable)
PoPs (10-20%) for the far eastern half of the CWA next Saturday and
Sunday. This forecast will certainly be refined over the next few
days.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025

VFR conditions with only scattered clouds expected into Monday.
Afternoon cumulus clouds will be most prevalent over the higher
terrain in northwest Arkansas.

Breezy south to southwest winds today will relax tonight. This
will result in windshear around 2000 feet in some areas tonight,
most likely in northeast Oklahoma and in the northwest Arkansas.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  97  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78  98  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   77  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   76  97  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  95  74  96 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   75  96  74  97 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   77  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   76  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
F10   76  96  75  96 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  95  74  94 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...08