El Dorado, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

375
FXUS64 KSHV 040603
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
103 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

 - A quiet and warm start to the week is in store, with highs in
   the upper 70s to lower 80s.

 - Thunderstorms will return along and north of the I-30 corridor
   late Tuesday. A few storms may become strong to severe.

 - Rainfall chances will continue for much of the remainder of the
   week, with more mild temperatures throughout and severe weather
   potential south of I-20 on Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Upper level flow over the ArkLaTex will see several weak
disturbances emerge within the pseudo-zonal flow remaining from the
weekend ridge. For the course of the day today, quiet conditions
will remain, along with a continued warming trend as highs take aim
at the upper 70s and lower 80s. A weak shortwave swill swing a
surface boundary into the region Tuesday, potentially as soon as
overnight tonight into tomorrow morning across our northernmost
zones, becoming more widespread along and north of I-30 by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. A chance exists for these thunderstorms to
become strong to severe.

Severe weather will also be possible Wednesday across approximately
the southeastern half of the ArkLaTex, though the timing of the
catalyst for this severe setup remains unclear. The driving factor
will be a large cutoff low over the northern Baja peninsula, which
is projected to swing eastward during the week. However, recent long
range model runs have been slowing down this eastern progression,
the latest GFS suggesting the low will open up to a trough that
effectively detaches and amplifies while the low reforms itself over
the southwest. The trough will be absorbed into upper level flow
while the low meanders across Texas by late this week or early in
the weekend. The result of this solution is an unsettled pattern
which begins with Tuesday`s storms and continues for much of the
week ahead, and will bear monitoring as subsequent model runs become
available.

Meanwhile, the surface boundaries serving as forcing mechanisms for
the week ahead will put a dent in our warming trend, with highs in
the 80s being cut down to the 70s across our northern zones
Wednesday and areawide by Thursday, followed by a gradual return to
the upper 70s to lower 80s by next weekend. Lows in the 50s and 60s
will briefly return to the upper 40s and lower 50s behind the front,
likewise quickly rebounding to the 60s.

/26/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

For the 04/06Z TAF period, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the period as high cirrus continues to increase across our airspace
overnight. With returning southerly flow, expect more fair weather
cumulus by midday along with additional high clouds through Monday
afternoon before diminishing in coverage after 05/00Z. Otherwise,
expect light S/SW winds through 04/15Z before increasing between
between 12-18 kts with higher gusts near 20-25 kts through much of
the afternoon and early evening, especially across our western TAF
sites.

/19/

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 101 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  81  66  85  71 /   0   0  10  20
MLU  82  63  86  70 /   0  10  10  20
DEQ  79  63  83  59 /   0  10  20  50
TXK  82  67  85  66 /   0  10  20  50
ELD  80  62  84  64 /   0  10  10  40
TYR  80  68  85  70 /   0   0  10  30
GGG  80  66  85  70 /   0   0  10  20
LFK  82  66  85  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&


$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...19