Conway, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

895
FXUS64 KLZK 230917
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
317 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Sfc ridge was situated over the Mid-South early this mrng, resulting
in light winds and generally clear skies. Predawn readings were
mainly in the 30s across AR, with many areas likely seeing patchy
frost to start the day.

The aforementioned sfc ridge will be shifting eastward thru Sun, as
the upper flow transitions to primarily zonal. This will allow
southerly winds to return to the region, along with warmer and more
humid air. Highs today will range fm the upper 50s to the upper 60s,
with lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Low lvl moisture/clouds wl return in earnest from west to east later
Sun and Sun night, thanks to breezy south winds. Highs Sun aftn are
expected to top out in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Would not be surprised
to see patchy drizzle dvlp over northern and western AR later Sun
night, as the low lvl jet ramps up ahead of an apchg CDFNT. The
fnt is progged to move into far NW AR at the end of the fcst PD.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024

Long term fcst remains consistent w/ previous thinking as a fairly
unsettled pattern is expected heading into next week and early
December. Main message remains a brief warm up PD ending on Mon,
transitioning to cooler and more seasonal condns by mid-week next
week, w/ intermittent rain chances.

Early on in the PD, upper flow wl be highly perturbed as progressive
troughing moves over the Nrn Cntrl US, asctd w/ deepening and
elongating sfc cyclonic flow. Thru the day Mon, this sfc low should
quickly advance N/Ewrd fm the Cntrl Plains into the Midwest and
Great Lakes region. An attendant cdfrnt wl be moving thru the FA
during the day, w/ temps to the south of the bndry reaching the
upper 70s Mon aftn, primarily over the Srn half of the state. Incrsg
PoPs should stay confined mainly to the Ern half of the FA Mon
aftn/evng. In the wake of the frnt, a swift airmass change wl ensue,
w/ area temps trending back to normal values thru the end of next
week.

Tues, and thru the remainder of the PD, more seasonal temps wl be in
place over the region, w/ sfc high pressure settling in, though dry
condns do not look to persist for long. Another region of sfc
cyclonic flow is progged to quickly develop and move thru the Srn
Plains under intermittent locally zonal upper flow, encapsulated by
a larger long wave troughing pattern w/ multiple embedded shortwave
perturbations. Rain chances look to resume again as early as Wed,
and become more widespread into Thanksgiving Day as the nose of this
next developing sfc low advances into the FA, coming into phase w/
another ejecting upper shortwave. Despite cooler air being in place
and a somewhat favorable synoptic pattern fcst, it looks like much
of the region wl be seeing a cold rain thru Thanksgiving Day, though
wl cont to monitor for any winter wx potential as we head into next
week. Beyond the long term PD and into early December, long-range
ensemble guidance remains indicative of locally colder condns on the
horizon, consistent w/ the most recent CPC temp outlooks.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1135 PM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

VFR conds will cont thru the fcst period, with just some high lvl
clouds passing acrs the region at times. Cannot rule out locally
dense fog near the larger bodies of water arnd daybreak, but wl
cont to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     61  41  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
Camden AR         68  41  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
Harrison AR       63  44  68  52 /   0   0   0  10
Hot Springs AR    65  43  71  60 /   0   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  64  43  72  60 /   0   0   0   0
Monticello AR     66  43  73  60 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      67  43  72  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mountain Home AR  60  42  68  54 /   0   0   0  10
Newport AR        59  40  68  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pine Bluff AR     65  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0
Russellville AR   66  42  72  58 /   0   0   0   0
Searcy AR         61  38  70  56 /   0   0   0   0
Stuttgart AR      62  41  70  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...44