Conway, Arkansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS64 KLZK 172000
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
300 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

As of 3 PM CDT, it is noted that pronounced southerly winds continue
to advect warming temperatures and moisture across the CWA and state
of Arkansas.

Expect dry weather to continue Thursday night and into Friday
morning, but PoP chances will increase across the northwestern half
of Arkansas as the day progresses with possible rain and isolated
thunderstorm activity along and ahead of a slowing cold front that
will approach the state from the northwest. A conditional threat for
severe weather (Slight Risk level 2 out of 5 and a Marginal Risk
flanking the Slight Risk level 1 out of 5) will exist Friday
afternoon into Friday evening across northwestern, west-central, and
north-central Arkansas for a few damaging wind gusts, large hail,
and the tornado threat is very low, but a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out.

Into the day on Saturday, the cold front that is progged to move
into northwestern Arkansas will become a stationary front stalled
across northwestern Arkansas. It is during this period that heavy
rain will begin to impact northwestern, west-central, and north-
central Arkansas which will last into the day on Sunday as a strong
signal between 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is forecast across these
areas. In response, a Flood Watch has been issued to cover these
most at risk areas to experience this heavy bout of rainfall.
Furthermore, confidence has increased as WPC (Weather Prediction
Center) has implemented a moderate risk of excessive rainfall (40%
chance) across the watch area. Moisture across the state will be
plentiful as a moisture will continue to be ushered into the state
along with an upper lvl closed low that will eject to the northwest
of the state and provide ample ascent. Looking at latest soundings
PW values in the watch area will support an atmospheric column
supportive for heavy rainfall with values between 1.3 inches to 1.6
inches.

Additionally on Saturday, another conditional threat for severe
weather will exist across the northwestern half of the state,
specifically a Slight Risk level 2 out of 5 as determined by SPC
(Storm Prediction Center) as the combination of the stalled frontal
boundary across northwestern Arkansas, favorable upper air dynamics,
and a sfc that will present a modest warm sector with many locations
across the Natural State able to reach high temperatures into the
80s creating a decent amount of instability. The main hazards once
again would be damaging wind gusts (between 60 mph and 80 mph),
large hail, and a very low but non-zero tornado threat. The timing
of this convective threat would be from Saturday afternoon and
persist into Saturday night.

On Sunday, the trend of unsettled weather will continue as a the
stationary front across northwestern Arkansas will lift as a warm
front into southern Missouri along with a second cold front on
approach to Arkansas from the northwest, but this cold front is not
expected to stall. A decent warm sector will open up across central,
southern, and eastern Arkansas with plentiful moisture and
temperatures that will promote instability over a large portion of
the state. As of this forecast package, this region is defined by a
15% contour (Slight Risk level 2 out of 5) via SPC (Storm Prediction
Center), but in tandem with upper lvl shortwave pulse will present
the greatest opportunity for a convective severe weather risk over
the three day period. Expect thunderstorm development to take place
across a large portion of the CWA and state of Arkansas within this
warm sector on Sunday afternoon with all hazards possible including
damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few tornadoes.

Into next week, Monday will see PoP chances begin to diminish across
the state from northwest to southeast throughout the day and looks
to be the driest day of the upcoming week. The period of Tuesday
through next Thursday will include increased PoPs across the CWA and
state of Arkansas, but at the moment the convective risk remains too
low to be of any concern (this could change as we get closer to the
event, but upper lvl dynamics do not support severe weather at this
time), but another 0.50 inch (across eastern Arkansas) to as much as
2 inches of total rainfall (across western Arkansas) may fall
between Tuesday and next Thursday, but at the current time a
flooding concern is not expected.

Overall, it is to be expected that areas with river gauges in or
near flood stage may take several extra days to fall below flood
stage (perhaps with an increase in river levels, but not near the
extent of the event which began in early April across central,
northern, northeastern, eastern, and southern Arkansas) given the
opportunity of any rainfall to be added to river basins which is
anticipated with this over unsettled weather pattern over the next
week. A positive is that it appears at the moment that the heaviest
of the precipitation should fall in river basins that are not
currently above flood stage.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1142 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025

Expect VFR flight category over the majority of the forecast period
from early Thursday afternoon through early Friday afternoon with a
short period of exception of lowered CIGS to MVFR flight category
across the sites of KHOT, KADF, KLIT, and KLLQ on Friday morning.
Anticipate low level wind shear across the northern terminals of
KHRO and KBPK early Friday morning through the remainder of the
period. Surface winds will gust in excess of 20 to near 30 knots for
the majority of the period across all terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     66  86  67  83 /   0  10  30  30
Camden AR         64  88  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
Harrison AR       64  82  63  74 /   0  30  70  80
Hot Springs AR    64  87  66  83 /   0  10  20  30
Little Rock   AR  66  88  68  84 /   0   0  20  20
Monticello AR     66  87  68  86 /   0   0   0   0
Mount Ida AR      65  87  66  82 /   0  10  30  30
Mountain Home AR  64  83  65  76 /   0  30  60  70
Newport AR        66  86  68  83 /   0   0  20  20
Pine Bluff AR     66  88  67  85 /   0   0   0  10
Russellville AR   64  87  66  82 /   0  20  40  40
Searcy AR         63  86  66  83 /   0   0  20  20
Stuttgart AR      67  87  69  85 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Friday evening through Sunday evening for
ARZ004>006-014-015-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-
212-213-221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....74
AVIATION...74