Tucson, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

244
FXUS65 KTWC 250836
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
137 AM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS... Isolated to scattered showers through the morning,
then mainly dry conditions with some sunshine returning this
afternoon. Dry conditions are expected Friday, then another
disturbance Saturday with a few light showers possible. Additional
precipitation is possible mid to late next week. Temperatures remain
about 10 degrees above normal through Friday with additional cooling
to near to slightly above normal levels this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Latest IR satellite imagery shows partly to mostly
cloudy skies with some very isolated shower activity. We`re seeing
fog developing in the valleys of Cochise County and the latest
observation at Willcox had less than 1/4 of mile visibility. Went
ahead and hoisted a Dense Fog Advisory for the valleys of Cochise
County as temporary clearing will allow for areas of dense fog to
expand. Meanwhile, we`re still under the influence of southwest flow
aloft ahead of the significant california/eastern Pacific trough
with embedded minor disturbances providing just enough lift to
result in isolated to scattered shower activity through the morning.
Additional rainfall will be minor, with less than 0.05" for locales
that record measurable rain. By this afternoon, most locations will
see a return to dry conditions with some sunshine returning allowing
for temperatures to warm to about 10 degrees above normal.

With mostly clear skies and moist low levels tonight into Friday
morning, additional areas of fog are possible again especially in
the Sulphur Springs Valley.

For Friday, dry conditions are expected to prevail as an area of
drying aloft works its way through the area. Temperatures will be
similar to today.

Continued southwest flow ahead of the trough across California
Saturday with the latest models indicating a disturbance moving
through aloft. This will provide some lift to result in a few
showers (20%-40% chance) mainly from Tucson eastward. Rain amounts
look to be quite low (less than 0.05"). Temperatures on Saturday
near to slightly above normal with valley highs generally 65 to 70.

The bulk of the aforementioned trough will push from the Great Basin
into the central Rockies Sunday as dry conditions return for us.
Some additional northern stream energy will try to dig in on the
backside of the positively tilted trough and that`s where we start
to see some differences in the ensembles early next week on those
details. For now, it`s looking mainly dry for us early next week
with the potential for an upper low well west of Baja to eventually
swing closer to us by later Wednesday into Thursday bringing a
return to precipitation chances. Near normal temperatures early next
week will nudge to above normal levels by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
BKN-OVC 8-14k ft AGL thru 25/19Z, then clouds diminishing with SKC-
FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL aft 26/00Z. Areas of FG for the KDUG
terminal area thru 25/16Z with additional FG possible again aft
26/07Z. Otherwise, SCT -SHRA for all terminals through about 25/19Z.
SFC winds mainly less than 12 kts and variable through the end of
the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures remain about 10 degrees above normal
through Friday with cooling to near to slightly above normal levels
this weekend. A few light showers mainly this morning, then drying
this afternoon. Dry Friday then a few more showers possible Saturday
mainly from Tucson eastward. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less
and terrain driven through the weekend.  Min relative humidity
values at all elevations will be in the 30-45 percent (and higher in
the mountains) through the weekend. Min relative humidity values
lower slightly to 25-35 percent early next week.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MST this morning for AZZ507-508.

&&

$$


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