Sun City, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

288
FXUS65 KPSR 172120
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Tucson AZ
220 PM MST Thu Apr 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather disturbance will slowly track through the region over the
next couple of days bringing much cooler temperatures, periods of
breezy to locally windy conditions, and a chance for showers late
Friday into early Saturday focused across the Arizona high terrain.
Weak high pressure will eventually build back over the region Sunday
into early next week resulting in temperatures warming to slightly
above normal levels and a return to dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery this afternoon showed a weakening small upper
low off southern California coast and a stronger upper low over NE
NV/NW UT moving south. Gusty SW winds across the area today with
the winds remaining elevated overnight in spots, especially
southwest Imperial county, where a wind advisory is in effect
until 6 am Friday morning.

The northern weather system is expected to move across the Great
Basin tonight before entering our region on Friday. Guidance is in
good agreement showing the bulk of the energy and colder air
aloft tracking across northern Arizona later on Friday through
Friday night. For our area, we can expect another day of breezy to
locally windy conditions on Friday with clouds increasing across
much of Arizona during the day as a cold front drops southeast
through the state. Moisture will become more concentrated within
the mid-levels on Friday as the system moves through the region
with showers likely developing over the Arizona higher terrain
from Flagstaff and locations just south and east of Flagstaff
during the morning hours. As the cold front pushes into our area
later in the afternoon and evening, we are likely to see these
showers move into Maricopa and Gila Counties, including the
Phoenix area. The best chances for measurable rainfall will be
focused north and east of Phoenix where up to a 0.25" will be
possible, whereas most of Phoenix should only see a trace to a few
hundredths. Can`t rule of a few lightning strikes north-northeast
of Phoenix. A dry sub- cloud layer is expected to be present on
Friday and this very well could lead to localized gusty winds of
25-40 mph associated with any more vigorous showers. For the
Phoenix metro, Friday evening looks to be the highest probability
of seeing any shower activity. Any lingering shower activity is
likely to move to the east and southeast of Phoenix by around
midnight with some isolated showers still possible across the far
eastern Arizona higher terrain through Saturday morning.

This weather system moves out of Arizona Saturday afternoon with
upper level ridging building in behind the system. After cooler
than normal highs on Friday and Saturday, temperatures rebound to
normal or several degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2200Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Gusty SW SFC winds to 20 kts continuing thru mid-evening before
relaxing. Confidence is good that a W/SW component will persist
well into the overnight hours with low confidence in timing any
shift back to the E/SE Friday morning. Model guidance suggesting
increasing mid-level clouds over the area after 19/10z.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty winds will be the main weather issue through Friday morning
under mostly clear skies. Westerly gusts will be most pronounced
at KIPL potentially only relaxing for a brief period late tonight.
Confidence is good that the strongest gusts near 30kt continue
into this evening. Winds will be much weaker at KBLH with SW
gustiness continuing into this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected over the next few days
as a weather system slowly moves through the region. This will
result in continued periods of breezy to locally windy conditions
with gusts at times between 20-30 mph. Scattered showers will also
become possible later Friday through Friday night across South-
central AZ with a remote chance of a weak thunderstorm or two
focused over the AZ higher terrain. Increasing moisture and
cooling temperatures will also help to raise RHs and lessen the
heightened fire weather conditions through at least the start of
the weekend. By Sunday into early next week, warming temperatures
and lowering RH values will return to the districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 AM PDT Friday for CAZ562.

&&

$$