San Luis, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

468
FXUS65 KPSR 270015
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
515 PM MST Tue Nov 26 2024

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather disturbance will pass through the Intermountain West
the next couple days, but little other than increased high clouds
will affect lower desert communities.  Otherwise, very quiet
conditions will persist through the holiday weekend with light winds
and temperatures hovering above the seasonal average.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upstream central/eastern Pacific Rex blocking will hold through
early next week with only a slow forward translation of larger scale
synoptic features. This stable, positive PNA type pattern will
promote dampening quasi-zonal flow across the SW Conus with a few
sheared, low amplitude shortwaves being pulled into the eastern
Conus mean troughing position. One such shortwave will progress from
the Great Basin into the plains over the next 24 hours dragging an
ill defined, dry cold front south while also forcing modest midlevel
height falls over the forecast area. Aside from some marginally
breezy conditions tomorrow across the western CWA, the introduction
of persistent thicker mid/high clouds will be the most evident
feature of this wave passage tapping the residuals of a subtropical
atmospheric river. Models depict the majority of the inland
penetrating moist plume situated above the H7 layer, though forecast
BUFR soundings do show a brief period of saturation in a H8-H7 layer
tomorrow afternoon. Regardless, any precipitation should be
relegated to orographic influenced areas of the higher terrain of
northern Arizona for any travelers headed that way.

A Pacific basin blocking ridge will slowly edge into the western
Conus over the weekend though a prevailing, undercutting subtropical
jet streak will keep midtropospheric heights capped below 580dm.
Ensemble membership displays very little spread to this overall
stable pattern yielding excellent forecast confidence to a tranquil
weather period. With no threat of precipitation for the next 6-10
days, only minor fluctuations in heights aloft and cloud cover will
modulate daily temperatures readings in about a 4F-8F above normal
range. It may not be until the end of next week until a more notable
change in the weather pattern can be materialized across the western
Conus.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0015z

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No weather concerns will be in effect tonight through Wednesday.
Wind speeds at the Phoenix terminals will be climbing throughout the
night peaking by Wednesday afternoon with speeds aob 09kts. Normal
wind shifts are anticipated with Easterly flow throughout the night
into the morning hours followed by a Westerly shift by early
afternoon. High clouds aoa 10kft are expected throughout the TAF
period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather concerns will be in effect tonight through Wednesday.
Current Westerly flow will persist through tonight into early
Wednesday morning. By mid morning a dominate N-NW will be present
with KBLH seeing moderate wind speeds aob 13kts and gusts between 20-
25kts. High clouds aoa 10kft are expected throughout the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and warmer than normal conditions will persist across the region
for the next several days. Winds will follow generally light and
diurnal tendencies through today before some areas, mainly across
parts of the Arizona high terrain and Lower Colorado River Valley,
pick up some marginal breeziness Wednesday and Thursday. MinRH
values through Wednesday will be between 20-35% region-wide before
falling toward 15-20% through the end of the week. Fair to good
overnight recoveries can be expected through Wednesday before
regional MaxRH values begin to fall starting Thursday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...18
AVIATION... Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...RW