Prescott, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

593
FXUS65 KFGZ 142148
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
248 PM MST Wed May 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer temperatures expected through Friday with
cooling over the weekend. A strong storm system over the weekend
will bring a chance for showers and gusty southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The last of the very windy days will come to an end
this evening as the low to our north weakens and moves out of the
region.

Tonight through Friday...As the low crosses to the north of the
area, we should see mostly dry conditions. However, there is a bit
of moisture towards the AZ/UT border so an isolated brief shower or
sprinkle may occur through this evening. Winds remain gusty this
afternoon, especially in areas along and north of the higher
terrain. As we head into tonight, the winds will start to drop off
and become light and variable through the overnight hours. Zonal
flow returns on Thursday and continues on Friday, which will bring
much lighter winds and warming conditions. A couple of weak
shortwaves may cross to the north and south of the area during this
time but will not have much of an impact on our forecast area.

Saturday through Monday...A weak low will move across Baja and cross
through extreme southeast Arizona on Saturday. This will help bring
in some slightly cooler air and allow for winds to increase across
the region.  On Sunday, a deep trough will start to develop over the
Pacific Northwest and then dive down through the Great Basin and
into our area. This system will bring colder temperatures, gusty
winds, and even some moisture into the region, which should
translate into some showers and thunderstorms. The depth of the
system will play a role in just how far south we will see
precipitation but as of now it looks like areas along and north of
the I-40 corridor will have the best chances to see a shower or
thunderstorm. Just how fast the moisture moves in will impact
whether we are able to see a few snowflakes down to 7000 ft or not
as there will be plenty of cold air available aloft. The Kaibab
Plateau and the San Francisco Peaks may have the best chances for a
light coating of snow on Sunday. We will also see increasing winds
on Sunday with gusts of 40-50 mph possible. Even with the moisture
moving in, some areas will remain dry and this will raise some fire
weather concerns, especially across central and eastern Arizona.

The system may redevelop on the western side as more energy rotates
down through the Great Basin on Monday. This may allow for some
showers to hang around a bit longer. However, moisture is more
limited with the second system. We should continue to see gusty
winds until the system passes to the east. The active pattern
continues so stayed tuned for more details and these systems get
closer to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 14/18Z through Thursday 15/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daytime sfc winds SW-W10-20kts, higher gusts to 35kts
over Apache County. Sct BKN CIGS AOA 8-10kft AGL, mainly north of
the I-40 corridor through 01Z. Winds becoming light after 03Z.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 15/18Z through Saturday 17/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds SW10-20kts Thursday, increasing to 15-25kts
on Friday. Winds generally light in the overnight periods.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Friday...A trough of low
pressure moving across Arizona today will continue to bring windy
conditions especially over Apache County. A few sprinkles are
possible today mainly north of I-40 into this evening. Southwest to
west winds 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts to near 40 mph over Apache
County where a Red Flag Warning will continue until this evening.
Southwesterly winds 10 to 20 mph on Thursday and Friday with a
warming trend.

Saturday through Monday...Turning windy and cooler Saturday, with
areas of Critical Fire Weather conditions possible. Even cooler
Sunday and Monday with chances for rain showers and snow showers.
Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph, with gusts to 35 mph Saturday.
Southwest winds 15 to 30 mph, with gusts from 40 to 45 mph on
Sunday and Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ111-114-117.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff