Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

152
FXUS65 KFGZ 041002
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
302 AM MST Mon May 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Look for dry and windy conditions today in advance of
a weather disturbance that will deliver cooler temperatures,
breezy conditions and a chance of showers and thunderstorms from
Tuesday into Wednesday. Fair and warmer weather returns for
Thursday and the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Low pressure was centered over the California coast
this morning, approach Arizona today then move across the area
from Tuesday into Wednesday. High pressure returns for the end of
the week.

For today...The California low will draw closer ushering in
strengthening pressure gradients and a cooler air mass. As a
result, winds will be quite a bit stronger than on Sunday,
generally south to southwest at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph.
The higher wind speeds in the ranges shown will mainly be
observed from the Mogollon Rim northward. Daytime high temperatures
are expected to drop by 5-10 degrees compared to Sunday due to a
cooler air mass but also mid- to high-level clouds spinning off
the low which will limit the amount of sunshine. Moisture will
gradually increase through the day but it is expected that any
shower activity will hold off until Tuesday.

From Tuesday into Wednesday...The center of the California low
will move across Arizona from west to east. The low will bring
with it even cooler air aloft along with upward dynamics. As a
result, we`re looking at a good chance of showers on Tuesday
focused from the Mogollon Rim northward. The threat of
thunderstorms will arrive in the afternoon as daytime heating
helps create additional instability. The low weakens and moves to
the southeast on Wednesday with only a lingering slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Storm total liquid equivalent
precipitation amounts will be somewhat limited generally in the
0.10-0.20 inch range for the entire system. Daytime temperatures
will drop another 5-10 degrees on Tuesday with the passing low but
rebound on Wednesday as the low heads southeastward. Winds will
remain breezy from the southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on
Tuesday but as the low weakens and moves to the southeast lighter
northwest winds will develop on Wednesday.

From Thursday onward...Generally dry and warmer as a shortwave
ridge moves across the southwest United State from Thursday into
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 04/06Z through Tuesday 05/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA north of the I-40 corridor will
dissipate north of the Utah border by 07Z-09Z. S-SSW sfc winds from
10-20kts overnight. Sfc winds S-SW15-25g30-035kts redevelop AFT 18Z
Monday.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 05/06Z through Thursday 07/06Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. SCT -SHRA/ISOLD -TSRA late Monday night through Tuesday
afternoon, especially east of the I-17 corridor and toward the Four
Corners. Some stronger showers may produce brief MVFR conditions.
All other periods dry. Sfc winds SW15-25g30-035kts continuing on
Tuesday, becoming NW10-20kts on Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Tuesday...Expect dry conditions today with
scatters showers and isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday. South to
southwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph today,
decreasing to 10-20 mph gusting to 30 mph on Tuesday. Minimum RH
between 15-30% today, increasing to 25-50% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...Look for isolated showers across
northeast Arizona on Wednesday, elsewhere dry. Dry conditions
spreading across all of northern Arizona for Thursday and Friday.
Winds generally west to northwest at 5-15 mph each afternoon.
Minimum RH between 15-25% on Wednesday, decreasing to 10-20% for
Thursday and Friday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff