Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

703
FXUS65 KFGZ 141142
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
442 AM MST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warmer conditions return for the weekend. A
strong storm system is expected to move into the region late
Monday through much of next week, bringing gusty winds and chances
for rain and snow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure will move across Arizona over the
weekend delivering fair weather before a series of low pressure
systems bring good chances of lower elevation rain and mountain
snow through the workweek. Driving will become difficult and
hazardous at times through the coming weekend so make sure and
stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

For today and Sunday...High pressure will deliver warmer daytime
temperatures and dry conditions. Look for light/variable winds
and mainly clear skies today as the axis of high pressure moves
overhead. On Sunday, the high pressure axis moves east of Arizona
in advance of a trough approaching from over the Pacific Ocean.
Weather conditions will remain dry with mild daytime temperatures
but with increasing clouds and the development of south to
southwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph as surface pressure
gradients tighten.

For Monday and Tuesday...The first in a series of shortwave
troughs will move from west to east across Arizona later on Monday
through Tuesday. In advance of the trough, during the day Monday,
look for southwest winds at 15-25 mph gusting to 35-40 mph as
pressure gradients strengthen further. These strong winds are
likely to continue Monday night through Tuesday. As moisture
increases and upper dynamics move in Monday night it is expected
that widespread showers will develop. Snow levels start out in the
7,000-8,000 foot range but then fall to 5,500-6,500 feet by
midday Tuesday. Elevations above 6000 feet are expect to see
general snowfall accumulation of 2-4 inches with higher amounts
over the San Francisco Peaks and highest elevations of the Kaibab
Plateau. Lower elevations will see 0.10-0.30 inches of rainfall.

From Wednesday into Thursday...The next shortwave trough will
move in during the day Wednesday. Winds will remain strong
on Wednesday, generally from the southwest at 15-25 mph gusting to
35-45 mph, especially along and northeast of the Mogollon Rim.
Winds quite a bit lighter by Thursday. This will be colder system
as it will approach from a more northerly direction. As a result,
the snow level looks to start out in the 5,500-6,500 foot range
but then drop to 4,000-5,000 feet before the trough exits the area
on Thursday. The shortwave trough will have a little further
north trajectory. As a result, the best snow accumulations are
forecast to be observed from near Happy Jack northwestward over
the higher terrain. The forecast is for general snow accumulations
of 4-8 inches at elevations above 5,500 feet across this area
with up to a foot over the very highest mountain locations. Once
again, lower elevations are forecast to see 0.10-0.30 inches of
rainfall.

Looking at Friday into next weekend...A series of weaker troughs
brush Arizona but conditions at this time look to remain dry with
a gradual warming of temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 14/12Z through Sunday 15/12Z...LIFR to IFR at
times at KLFG through 15Z due to fog and low ceilings, VFR
elsewhere. Conditions improve to VFR at all locations after 15Z.
Winds light and variable 5-10kts daytime, light and variable or
terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 15/12Z through Tuesday 17/12Z...VFR conditions
through 00Z to 06Z Tues with no precipitation expected through
that time period. MVFR and IFR possible after 00Z-06Z Tues as the
next storm system moves in with rain and snow chances. Winds S-SW
10-15kts on Sunday, increasing to S-SW 15-25kts, gusts 30-40kts on
Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...Dry through the weekend.
Temperatures warm up again 5-10 degrees above average. Winds light
and variable 5-10 mph today, then S-SW 5-15 mph with gusts 20-25 mph
on Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH values 25-45% today, 20-35% Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry conditions expected through Monday,
then colder temperatures and good chances for rain and snow showers
Monday night through Wednesday. Winds SW 20-30 mph with gusts 35-45
mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff