Flagstaff, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

511
FXUS65 KFGZ 250520
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1020 PM MST Sun May 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures and mostly dry weather are expected
for today with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
arriving for Memorial Day. Expect typical southwest breezes each
afternoon, with increasing winds and cooler temperatures arriving
for the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...West Coast trough starts to push in later this
evening. Some mid level moisture is already being drawn in ahead
of this system producing some high based convection and maybe even
a few virga showers or sprinkles this afternoon. Lower level
moisture gets drawn in later tonight with scattered showers
developing and moving up from southern Arizona into eastern
Arizona early Monday morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
will fill in westward over the Kaibab Plateau and Mogollon Rims
by mid morning to early afternoon as CAPE values rise to between
500-1000 j/kg. Storms will move off towards the northeast deserts
by mid to later afternoon. Rainfall amounts from these showers/storms
will range from a trace to a few hundredths over the northeast
high deserts to around a tenth to quarter inch along the Rim and
White Mountains with locally heavier amounts possible under the
heaviest downpours. Lightning and locally gusty winds will also be
hazards to consider. Most of the shower/storm activity will wind
down by Monday night as the low ejects across the state but wrap
around moisture in the form of a few showers/storms will still
impact the northeastern corner of the state on Tuesday.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side for most of this week as
a unseasonable cold upper level low forms over the Great Basin and
lingers there keeping our area under consistent troughing. The
position of the low at this time is expected to stay far enough
north to not draw in any substantial moisture for our area,
however it will draw in some wind Wednesday into Thursday out of
the southwest at 20-25 mph, gusting 30-40 mph. The trough does
draw in just enough moisture to keep the area out of critical fire
weather conditions for now. Will continue to evaluate day by day
to make sure this stays the case.

By the weekend the Great Basin Low opens up and moves northeast
and southwesterly flow aloft takes over for the Southwest. This
will allow temperatures to climb back up to end of May averages.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 25/06Z through Tuesday 26/06Z...VFR conditions
will mostly prevail overnight. Look for increasing -SHRA/-TSRA
through the TAF period, with greatest coverage between 18Z-00Z.
Gusty/erratic winds possible near showers/storms, with SE through
SW winds 5-15 kts expected otherwise.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 26/06Z through Thursday 28/06Z...Improving
conditions expected through the outlook period. Isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA may linger through 00Z Wednesday, becoming focused
 over the Four Corners by 12Z Tuesday. Expect southerly winds 5-10
 kts Monday night/Tuesday morning, becoming SW 10-20 kts by 18Z
 Tuesday. Winds will remain elevated Tuesday night/Wednesday
 morning before increasing to 10-25 kts out of the southwest, with
 gusts 30-35 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Tuesday...Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing tonight and Monday. Areas of
wetting rain will be possible along with cloud-to-ground lightning
and gusty/erratic winds. Drier air will move in on Tuesday but with
isolated showers and thunderstorms lingering toward the Four Corners
and along the Arizona/New Mexico border. Expect southeast to
southwest winds at 5-15 mph gusting to 20 mph on Monday, shifting
to south to southwest at 10-20 mph gusting to 25 mph on Tuesday.
Minimum afternoon RH decreasing to 10-20% on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday....Dry with little change in temperatures.
Expect south to southwest winds at 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph on
Wednesday and Thursday, diminish to 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph on
Friday. Afternoon minimum RH between 10-20% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff