El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS65 KPSR 091054
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
354 AM MST Thu Apr 9 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions with above normal temperatures will prevail
  across the region through the end of this week

- An approaching weather system will result in increased cloud
  cover, breezy conditions, and cooling temperatures by this weekend

- A follow on system early next week will result in further cooling
  with temperatures falling below normal Monday and Tuesday

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Current GOES-18 wv imagery and 500 mb streamline analysis reveals a
broad, low-amplitude ridge centered over the Desert Southwest with a
weak embedded shortwave progressing harmlessly through N Mexico.
Meanwhile, a cutoff low is positioned over the E Pacific well off
the coast of N California. H5 hghts will remain in a 576-579 dam
range over the forecast area today with H8 temperatures again
exceeding 20C. This will result in high temperatures across the
lower deserts reaching the mid 90s or around 10-12 degrees above
daily normals. The only noticeable difference today will be an
influx of high-lvl cirrus as a plume of Pacific moisture begins to
stream into the region ahead of the approaching low. Due to the
tightening of the 7H-5H gradient, there will also be enhanced
breeziness across SE California this afternoon along with a bout of
gusty sundowner winds in Imperial County this evening.

On Friday, the upper-lvl ridge axis will shift farther east into
the S Plains, while the aforementioned cutoff low reaches the
California coast and quickly transitions to an open wave. As this
occurs, we will begin to see increasing SW flow aloft over the
Desert Southwest along with H5 hghts falling to around 570-574
dam. Consequently, temperatures will cool by a few degrees, but
will still remain above normal with lower desert highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s. Breezy conditions can be anticipated yet
again across SE California and SW Arizona Friday afternoon and
evening, especially around sunset in the Imperial Valley where an
enhanced mountain wave signature will be present.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
The cooling trend will continue into this weekend as large
scale troughing becomes established over the Intermountain West.
Temperatures will cool from slightly above normal on Saturday to
right around seasonal averages on Sunday. The first in a series of
shortwaves embedded in the large scale trough will sweep across
the Great Basin region on Saturday, but will be too far north of
our region to provide any appreciable moisture and lift to
generate showers across southcentral AZ. A majority of the
moisture will be focused well east of the region into E New Mexico
and W Texas. Therefore, NBM PoPs late Saturday into early Sunday
have decreased dramatically and are now only around 10-15% at
most, even in the higher terrain areas NE of Phoenix. The main
weather impacts heading into this weekend will be winds as the
mid-lvl hght gradient remains compact across the entire region.
Gusts will range from 20-25 mph across the lower deserts and
upwards of 30-35 mph in the higher terrain areas, especially at
mountain peak level. The strongest winds look to be on Sunday as
the next shortwave trough begins to approach from the west. Winds
on Sunday may in fact reach low end advisory criteria across
portions of SE California and the high terrain of S-C Arizona.

Ensemble members and deterministic guidance are in good agreement
that a deeper shortwave trough will progress through the Desert
Southwest Monday into Tuesday, with H5 anomalies reaching a
minimum on Monday. This will be the coolest day of the forecast
period with lower desert highs mainly in the low to mid 70s and
lows in the 50s. Increasing cloud cover and even a few passing
showers will be possible across the northern fringes of the
forecast area Monday into early Tuesday as the trough axis passes
overhead. Drier air will begin to filter into the region behind
the departing weather system late Tuesday. As H5 anomalies
transition from negative to neutral, temperatures will rebound
from slightly below normal on Tuesday to near normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1055Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No significant aviation weather impacts are expected through the
next 24 hours under increasing high clouds. Early to mid morning
easterly winds will shift to a light southerly wind by late
morning and persist between into early afternoon before prevailing
west southwest winds takes hold. Late afternoon/early evening
winds up to 8-12 kts with gusts to 20 kts are expected.
Diminishing west winds late evening will eventually turn easterly
after midnight.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No significant aviation weather impacts are expected through the
next 24 hours under increasing high clouds. Winds will favor a
W`rly component through the TAF period at KIPL. Winds are likely
to gust up to 20-25 kts at KIPL in the afternoon and evening.
Winds at KBLH will continue to follow familiar diurnal and
nocturnal wind patterns and will also see gusty SW winds develop
in the afternoon, peaking around 20-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures will persist
through the end of this week. MinRHs will range from 10-15% today
before increasing above 15% starting on Friday. Overnight recovery
will generally range from poor to fair across the region over the
next couple nights, however low lvl moisture will trend upward by
this weekend resulting in much better recovery up to 50-70%.
Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies, however enhanced
upslope gustiness can be anticipated especially across the western
districts beginning this afternoon. A weather system will move
into the region this weekend, resulting in continued breezy to
locally windy conditions and much cooler temperatures. Scattered
showers will be possible mainly over the higher terrain of
southcentral AZ, but CWR will remain low <10%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno