El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

040
FXUS65 KPSR 242331
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
431 PM MST Tue Feb 24 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably strong high pressure over the Southwest will result
  in very warm temperatures and minor HeatRisk this week with
  afternoon highs more than 15 degrees above normal.

- Daily record highs and warm lows will likely be tied or broken in
  Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro from Thursday through Monday.

- Dry, tranquil weather will persist through early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
The upper-lvl pattern remains unchanged from the past 24 hrs,
consisting of longwave ridging over the entire western half of
the CONUS. 500 mb hghts remain between 584-586 dam over our
forecast area, or near the 99th percentile of climatology for late
February. Latest visible satellite imagery reveals thin high
cirrus clouds cresting the top of the ridge and spilling into the
Desert Southwest, but this has done little to hamper warming
across our region. Temperatures are again on their way up to the
middle 80s across the lower deserts this afternoon which is around
10-12 degrees above normal for this time of year. Dry and
tranquil weather will continue into tonight with lows ranging from
the mid 50s to lower 60s across the lower deserts and upper 40s
to low 50s for the higher terrain areas.

The strengthening of the upper ridge and increasing mid-lvl
hghts/thickness will promote a steady warming trend through mid-
week. Highs across the C AZ deserts are expected to reach the upper
80s and slightly higher into the lower 90s across the SW AZ and SE
CA deserts on Wednesday. The lower 90s will become more widespread
on Thursday which is forecast to be the first 90 degree day of the
year in Phoenix. Thursday will also mark the beginning of a 4-5 day
stretch of near record to record breaking highs and warm lows for
all 3 of the major climate sites (Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro). Due
to the deeper PBL mixing and tightening of the 500 mb hght gradient
over N AZ , enhanced afternoon breeziness can be anticipated with
gusts reaching 20-25 mph at times. Otherwise, dry and calm
conditions will prevail.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Essentially nothing will change in the synoptic pattern through
the weekend as the stable Conus longwave pattern holds steady. If
anything, H5 heights may locally edge higher (closer to 588dm at
times) while sfc-H8 thermal profiles continue to warm. Model
guidance continues to forecast H8 temperatures peaking around +20C
over the weekend easily resulting in afternoon highs above 90F
across lower desert communities. Guidance spread also remains
unusually narrow with probabilities of exceeding daily records
well above 50% over the weekend. Widespread minor HeatRisk will
expand even into higher elevations with afternoon readings
exceeding 20F above normal. The trend among the vast majority of
ensemble membership during the first half of next week shows some
form of troughing with lowering heights entering the SW Conus,
however specific timing and orientation of any incoming negative
height anomalies is very uncertain. Regardless, forecast
confidence is moderately good regarding temperatures retreating
from record levels as at least minor height falls enter the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will continue to follow typical diurnal tendencies with
periods of light variability. Speeds will generally be aob 7 kts.
FEW-SCT high cirrus clouds will be passing over the region
throughout the period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will favor the W/NW at both terminals through most to the
TAF period, with speeds aob 7 kts. Extended periods of light and
variable winds are also expected. FEW-SCT high cirrus clouds will
be passing over the region throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will continue through the remainder of the
week with temperatures reaching well above seasonal norms. Minimum
afternoon humidity levels will generally fall to 15-20% across the
lower deserts, and into a 20-25% range at higher elevations. This
will follow fair to good overnight recovery of 30-60%. Wind speeds
will remain generally 10 mph or less overnight and during the
morning hours with modest afternoon upslope gusts up to 15-25 mph.
Overall conditions will be favorable for early spring prescribed
burning operations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily High Temperature Records:

       Phoenix      Yuma      El Centro
      ---------   ---------   ---------
2/25  92 (1921)   95 (1986)   94 (1986)
2/26  91 (1986)   96 (1986)   95 (1986)
2/27  92 (1986)   95 (1986)   96 (1986)
2/28  89 (1986)   97 (1986)   92 (1986)
3/1   89 (2016)   93 (1986)   91 (2016)
3/2   90 (2016)   94 (1910)   92 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno/18
CLIMATE...Benedict