El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

831
FXUS65 KPSR 010922
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
222 AM MST Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for light rain will end from west to east by late
  morning with skies becoming sunny by the afternoon.

- Slightly above normal temperatures are expected today through
  Friday with gradual drying taking place across the region.

- Temperatures will warm again over the weekend into next week
  with highs reaching the low to mid nineties by Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper level shortwave and a modest cold front are currently
tracking across the region early this morning providing ample lift
for some light rain showers and virga. There is plenty of moisture
in the upper levels, but moisture within the low and mid levels is
sparse except for along and just ahead of the cold front. Hi-res
CAMs show more scattered virga and light rain over the next few
hours before forming a more definitive line of showers by around 6
AM as it passes through the Phoenix area. Even though the radar
is picking up a lot of returns, we have yet to record any
measurable rainfall across the lower deserts. Some higher terrain
areas in southern California and western Arizona have managed to
pick up some rainfall, but mostly under 0.10". As the front moves
through the rest of Arizona later this morning, lower desert
locations are likely to get see some sprinkles, but most will not
receive any measurable rainfall. Higher terrain locations north
and east of the Phoenix area are likely to see some measurable
rainfall with localized amounts 0.1-0.2" possible.

Breezy to locally windy conditions will occur the rest of the
morning mainly associated with the frontal passage and again
during the afternoon hours focused across southeast California and
the Arizona high terrain. Cooler air will also filter into the
region from the west keeping daytime highs in the low to mid 80s
across the lower deserts. Once the disturbance exits well to the
east tonight into Thursday, drier northwesterly flow will settle
over the region keeping skies clear to mostly clear. Temperatures
Thursday are forecast to warm slightly, but still only topping
out in the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A quiet weather pattern is expected going into the weekend and
through at least the first part of next week. A Pacific trough
will track well to our north on Friday keeping temperatures just
a few degrees above normal. A modest ridge will then move into the
region over the weekend quickly boosting temperatures as highs top
out around 90 degrees Saturday and into the low to mid 90s on
Sunday. This ridge will somewhat stick around into early next
week, but it will likely be undercut by a very weak shortwave on
Monday before another Pacific trough potentially moves into the
Western U.S. on Wednesday. Dry conditions are likely to prevail
the entire time with the only chances (5-10%) for any showers
across the far eastern Arizona high terrain. NBM forecast
temperatures look quite stable for the first half of next week
with highs hovering around 95 degrees, or roughly 10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0606Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern during the TAF period will be continuing
breezy conditions and lowering CIGs. Westerly winds will prevail
throughout the overnight and into the morning hours. Wind speeds
will generally be aoa 10kts for most of the TAF period with
periods of gusts around 20-25 kts through tomorrow morning. CIGs
will gradually lower overnight, bottoming out around 6-8k ft for a
brief time. These lowering bases will be accompanied some light
showers and virga. However, rain chances are too low (15-20%) to
warrant inclusion of even VCSH in the TAFs at this time. Clouds
should quickly scatter out behind the passage of a cold front.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern throughout the TAF period will be breezy
to windy conditions. A westerly component will prevail throughout
the period at both sites, with KBLH expecting a period of VRB by
tomorrow morning. Gusts near 25-30kt will be common through most
of the night at KIPL, relaxing eventually by early morning. At
KBLH, gusts will not be as strong (around 20kt). SCT-BKN skies are
expected to progressively clear to FEW passing high clouds by
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front pushing through the area this morning will bring
scattered light showers with little measurable rainfall. Breezy
westerly winds will also affect the area today with gusts as high
as 25-35 mph with the frontal passage and again this afternoon
across southeast California and the Arizona high terrain. MinRHs
today will mostly be between 20-30% before drier air gradually
moves in lowering MinRHs to 15-25% Thursday and 10-15% starting
Friday. Afternoon breezy conditions will be possible on both
Thursday and Friday focused more across the western districts.
Lighter winds, temperatures rising to well above normal, and low
humidities are then anticipated for the weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW/Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman