El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS65 KPSR 111710
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1010 AM MST Mon May 11 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for portions of the western
deserts today and for the Phoenix Metro area through Tuesday.

- Today will be the hottest day of the week with lower desert highs
reaching 105-112 degrees, followed by a gradual cooling through the
remainder of the week.

- Dry conditions will prevail this week under generally clear skies
most days. Wednesday will be the only day with partly to mostly
cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A strong upper level ridge is currently moving eastward through the
region with H5 heights expected to peak later today between 588-
590dm, or near the 99th percentile of climatology for the period.
The higher heights will help to push temperatures even hotter today
with lower desert highs of 106-110 degrees, or around 15 degrees
above normal. The forecast high in Phoenix has nudged up to 109
degrees today which is only one degree shy of the daily record.

A weak upper level disturbance has also formed just west of southern
Baja, but there is currently no moisture connection or clouds (other
than marine stratus). However, as the disturbance expands and the
flow turns southeasterly across inland Mexico, it should result in
some convection today across Chihuahua and eventually some mid to
upper level clouds working their way into southern Arizona tonight.
Before this higher level moisture advection occurs, a shallow low
level east southeasterly jet will affect eastern and southern
Arizona this morning, bumping surface dew points upward by around 20
degrees by mid to late morning. Gusty easterly winds will also
affect southeast Arizona into south-central Arizona this morning
with gusts over the higher terrain upwards of 25-30 mph in some
spots to 15-20 mph into Phoenix. By mid to late afternoon, much of
this boundary layer moisture will get dispersed as much drier air
mixes down. However, some of the boundary layer moisture will remain
and with the southerly mid-level flow returning on Tuesday, some
afternoon Cu and potentially some isolated shower activity may
develop across southeast Arizona to as far north as eastern Pinal
and southern Gila Counties. Even if some showers do manage to
develop, we are not anticipating any measurable rainfall in our
area.

The Baja disturbance is forecast to move northward later today
through Tuesday reaching southern California Tuesday afternoon. Some
mid and upper level clouds will be possible as this happens along
with height falls across southern California and western Arizona.
The height falls and increased gradient will help to drive a decent
push of southerly winds for Tuesday afternoon across far southwest
Arizona and southeast California. Wind gusts may briefly reach 30
mph for some of these locations late Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures
Tuesday will react to the falling heights mainly across southeast
California and southwest Arizona where highs will fall back to
between 102-106 degrees. The Phoenix area will only dip a couple of
degrees from today`s highs with readings topping out 104-107 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Wednesday will be a pattern transition day for the Desert Southwest
as upper level troughing from a much larger Pacific trough nudges
southeastward into the region while a sub-tropical upper level jet
comes on shore across northern Mexico into Arizona. The jet will
drive increased higher level clouds across at least the eastern half
of Arizona for much of Wednesday, while the lowering heights will
allow for cooling conditions. Forecast highs Wednesday range from
the upper 90s to around 100 degrees across the western deserts to
around 100 degrees in the Phoenix area.

The main Pacific shortwave is set to miss our region well to the
north on Thursday, but the broader upper level troughing is still
favored to move through Thursday into Friday. This will drive
heights even lower while dropping highs more into a 95-99 degree
range for both Thursday and Friday. The pattern for the upcoming
weekend is likely to support a weak ridge moving through giving a
slight boost in temperatures as readings may top 100 degrees again
for some of the lower deserts. The westerly dry flow late this week
and through next weekend should provide for clear to mostly clear
skies.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1710Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Uncertainty in timing of wind shifts and directions will be the
primary weather issue through Tuesday afternoon under clear skies.
Confidence is good than an easterly component will prevail through
mid afternoon, then attempting to switch to a westerly component
late afternoon. However, extended periods of variability are
possible late afternoon/early evening with directions potentially
260v030 until settling on a W/NW trajectory beyond mid evening. A
west component may hold longer into the overnight before making the
typical nocturnal easterly switch prior to sunrise.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather issues will exist through Tuesday afternoon under clear
skies. Confidence is fair that wind directions will oscillate
between an early morning/daytime SE component and an evening SW
direction with speeds remaining under 12kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions will prevail through Tuesday with lower
desert highs topping out 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Minimum
humidity levels will bottom out in the single digits each afternoon
with overnight recoveries remaining poor to fair, averaging 20-35%.
After a brief period of elevated easterly winds across the eastern
districts this morning, winds will become light in the afternoon.
Tuesday will bring more of a predominant southerly wind,
particularly across the western districts where afternoon gusts of
25-30 mph will be possible. These stronger winds coupled with very
dry conditions will result in elevated to near critical fire
weather. The weather pattern will then shift for the latter half of
the week bringing temperatures down, but still remaining above
normal while dry conditions continue to prevail.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ530-532.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ537-540-
     542>544-546-548-550-551.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ567-569-
     570.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562-563-
     566.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman