El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

334
FXUS65 KPSR 271116
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
416 AM MST Fri Mar 27 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot conditions will continue to challenge daily
  temperatures records through the rest of the week and into the
  weekend.

- These hot conditions may be dangerous, especially for any
  strenuous outdoor activities without proper hydration and
  frequent breaks in the shade, or air conditioning.

- Temperatures should finally begin to back away from record
  territory by the end of the weekend as the high shifts east and
  cloud cover and shower chances increase.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure continues to dominate our region. Although the center
of the high pressure has shifted southeast of us our region is still
under the influence of the western flank of the high. Additionally,
the shortwave that moved through the region has shifted east and is
now moving into the TX panhandle. This has allowed for H5 heights to
increase to around 585-587 dm, which in turn will allow for a slight
increase in temperatures today. Afternoon high temperatures are
once again forecasted to be in the 98-103 degree range across the
lower deserts and in the 90s across the higher terrain.
Temperatures of this magnitude will once again break daily record
high temperatures. Morning low temperatures will also be well
above normal, in the 60s, but will make for a rather pleasant
morning.

By tomorrow the weather in AZ and southeast CA will finally become
more lively, breaking out of the multi-week long dry, tranquil, and
very hot pattern. A very strong surface high (1037-1040mb) moving
through the Plains Friday and Saturday will push a backdoor cold
front (minus the cold) into southern AZ tonight into Saturday
morning. A strong pressure gradient will develop and lead to strong
easterly winds across southern AZ Saturday morning, especially
across many high terrain areas east of Phoenix. Latest ECMWF EFI is
highlighting parts of southeast AZ for a highly anomalous wind
event. The 12Z HREF is showing high probabilities (>80%) of
sustained wind speeds above 25 mph beginning around midnight in the
mountains east of Phoenix, including southern Gila County. There is
always uncertainty in the peak wind forecast with these easterly
wind events, as models often overdo the strength of the winds. So, I
would not anticipate winds hitting 60-65 mph like some of the models
are suggesting for some mountain peaks, but this is still expected
to be one of the strongest gradient winds over the past few years
and some mountainous areas may still see peak winds in excess of 50
mph. Easterly breezes may increase as early as midnight in the lower
deserts as well, including Phoenix, but the strongest breezes -
gusts up to 25-30 mph - will become more common and widespread after
sunrise Saturday and then the gradient should slowly relax through
the afternoon.

In addition to the gusty winds Saturday, there will be an initial
push of moisture into the region from the east and south, leading to
more mid and high level clouds. After what will likely be a warmer
morning due to the easterly breezes Saturday, afternoon high
temperatures will end up several degrees cooler (3-5 degrees) than
Friday, mainly across south-central AZ. Temperatures across SE CA
and SW AZ will be similar or only a degree or two cooler than on
Friday. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures, highs are still
forecast to break daily records in Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heading into Sunday a better push of moisture into the region is
expected as high pressure shifts further east to the Gulf States and
southerly to southwesterly flow taps into some subtropical moisture
from the south. Ensemble members continue to show PWATs increasing
to around 200-250% of normal across AZ by late Sunday into Monday.
The increased cloud cover in combination with the high shifted
further east will result in further cooling temperatures. The caveat
of coming out of a wave of historical heat is that even a little bit
of cooling will still result in near record temperatures. Afternoon
high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s across
the lower deserts both on Sunday and Monday and may still tie or
break daily record highs.

The influx of moisture late this weekend and early next week will
also result in some low-end shower and thunderstorm chances, with
best chances across the AZ high terrain to the north and east of the
Phoenix Metro. NBM PoPs remain quite low for the lower deserts of
central and southwest AZ, generally under 10%, despite the abundance
of moisture. With the unseasonably hot temperatures, the lower
troposphere and PBL will still be pretty dry. So, showers that do
develop may mostly fall as virga. Additionally, the forcing will be
very limited Sunday through Monday. There is at least some guidance
support for some mid-level confluence and convergence that could
better the chances for scattered showers or a band of light showers.
Most global ensemble guidance has the best instability Monday (few
hundred J/kg of CAPE), but with the minimal forcing it may be
difficult to realize any instability to get thunderstorms. With the
dry sub-cloud air, any convective or stronger shower or storm that
develops will be capable of producing gusty outflow boundaries, but
the hope of outflow boundaries generating new activity is pretty low
given LCL heights likely remaining fairly high for this time of year.

Beyond Monday, ensemble guidance continues to show an East Pacific
trough moving through the region during the middle of next week.
There are still uncertainties regarding the exact track and strength
of this system. However, it currently looks to drop H5 heights into
a 570-575dam range during the middle of the week. As a result
afternoon high temperatures are forecast to fall back into the 80s
by Wednesday, which is near to slightly above normal for this time
of year. The last time our region saw afternoon high temperatures in
the 80s was on March 11, which will have been 3 weeks by next
Wednesday. Additionally, this trough will bring additional shower
and storm chances to the region, but as of now primarily favoring
northern AZ. The NBM currently has the best rain chances (20-30%)
across the higher terrain to the north and east of Phoenix. The
latitudinal progression of the trough through the region will
influence whether the rain chances increase across the southern
deserts (a deeper southerly track) for the beginning of April. Stay
tuned for future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1115Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns expected through the periods with
winds mostly following diurnal tendencies. There will likely be a
period of southerly winds late morning/early afternoon before the
westerly shift mid/late afternoon. Clear skies will persist
through most of the afternoon before some higher clouds move in by
this evening. Late in the period through Saturday morning,
easterly winds will be elevated and at times gusting to around
20kts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns expected through the period. Winds
will remain light and variable at times with directions settling
out of the SE at KIPL and the S at KBLH during the afternoon.
Winds will eventually turn out of the W at KIPL during the evening
and out of the NNW at KBLH late Friday night. Clear skies will
persist through this afternoon before high cirrus cloud decks move
in by the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably hot temperatures with very dry conditions will
continue through at least the start of the weekend. MinRH values
will be around 5-15% today before increasing to 10-20% starting
tomorrow. MaxRHs will follow a similar uptrend with readings
close to 20-40% the next few mornings before rising up closer to a
40-60% range by the beginning of next week. Moisture levels will
be highest Sunday into Monday and Wednesday with some moisture
fluxes into the region. Winds will be light for the majority of today
and follow their typical diurnal tendencies. Stronger winds
(gusts 25-35 mph) enter the picture late tonight into Saturday,
mainly for areas east of the Colorado River. There are good
chances for higher gusts upwards of 40+ mph (~80% chance) in the
mountainous areas east of Phoenix. Additionally, winds will be
strongest Saturday morning and then should gradually subside
midday through the afternoon. Although minimum RH values are
forecast to stay above the critical threshold (15%) most of the
day, there may still be a period of elevated, to near critical,
fire weather conditions Saturday due primarily to the widespread
breezy easterly winds and unseasonable temperatures. There will be
at least slight chances for rain (10-30%) Monday and Wednesday,
but the CWR will be under 10%. Any showers that do develop will be
capable of producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, which could
impact any existing fires.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record highs through this week:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/27     98 in 1986    100 in 1986     99 in 1988
3/28     95 in 2015     98 in 2015     98 in 2015
3/29     97 in 2015    100 in 1897     97 in 1969

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich/Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict/Berislavich
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich
CLIMATE...RW/18