El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

305
FXUS65 KPSR 111943
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1243 PM MST Thu Dec 11 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will be seen across the region
  through at least the weekend with some locations flirting with
  record highs.

- Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail through at least next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will continue to be the dominate weather regime over
the southwestern CONUS through the end of the week and into the
weekend. With atmospheric heights near or above the 90th
percentile, a reflection of the amount of warm air throughout the
atmospheric column, much warmer-than-normal temperatures will be
common across the forecast area. Outside of a few degrees
variation at a given point day-by-day, temperatures through Sunday
will hold mostly steady in the upper 70s to lower 80s for desert
locales. This will be a good 10-15 degrees above normal for the
middle of December and a number of daily record highs may be tied
with or exceeded in the coming days. As of now, the most likely
time and place to see a new daily record high set is Phoenix on
Sunday where the current forecasted high is 82 degrees while the
record is 78 set in 2010. Some high clouds moving over the region
late in the weekend may present a limiting factor toward reaching
that 82 degree mark, but given the strength of the ridge, at least
tying the record seems almost guaranteed as probabilities for
this result are currently at 90%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Very little will change as far as the weather pattern for next
week with any weather systems staying across the northern tier
states. Models do show a very weak shortwave trough moving either
through the ridge or overtopping the ridge early next week, but
H5 are shown to only drop briefly to between 580-582dm. This
little feature may cause daytime highs to dip more into the mid
70s by next Tuesday or Wednesday, but guidance favors a rebuilding
of the ridge again by late next week. This should at least
maintain highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s late next week
with some potential for reaching 80 degrees again by next weekend.
Other than some occasional higher level clouds, the air mass will
stay dry across the region through all of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1720Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through Friday morning
under clear skies. Winds will favor light, diurnal tendencies with
extended periods of variable or calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will prevail across the region into next week
with temperatures running 8-13 degrees above normal. Winds are
expected to remain light every day and follow diurnal tendencies.
Humidities over the next week will stay above critical levels
with afternoon MinRHs mostly ranging between 20-30%, followed by
good overnight recoveries to around 50-70%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/11  81 (1977)
12/12  79 (2010)
12/13  82 (2010)
12/14  78 (2010)
12/15  79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict