El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

037
FXUS65 KPSR 051110
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
410 AM MST Tue May 5 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well below normal temperatures expected today as afternoon highs
  struggle to reach eighty degrees across the lower deserts.

- Shower activity will persist through this morning, particularly across
  the foothills and higher terrain areas east of Phoenix.

- As high pressure builds across the western United States through
  the end of the week, a rapid warming trend to above normal
  temperatures is expected with triple digit highs materializing
  as early as Friday across the lower deserts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper-level low
centered across central CA. This upper-level low will continue to
slowly trek east-southeastward throughout the day, reaching AZ
early this evening. Out ahead of the low, a large moisture plume
with subtropical connection is currently enveloping the eastern
half of AZ with the latest SPC mesoanalysis showing PWAT values
ranging between 0.7-1.0 across central and southern AZ. The
combination of the moisture in place and the large scale forcing
for ascent associated with the low has led to an area of light
showers to break out across portions of southeast AZ, with
activity extending northward to include the foothills and higher
terrain areas just east of Phoenix. This activity is expected to
persist throughout the morning hours across these areas. A few
scattered showers may also develop across the Phoenix metro
throughout the morning hours as well. For the most part, rainfall
amounts should remain on the light side, with most of the Phoenix
area seeing little to no accumulations while amounts of upwards
of 0.25", locally higher in the most persistent bands, are likely
across the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix. Activity will
come to an end across most of the region by this afternoon as
drier air gradually filters in.

With cold core of the low approaching the area heading into this
afternoon, high temperatures today will be well-below normal as
readings struggle to reach 80 degrees, in what will likely be the
coolest day for the next 6 months. With some jet energy lingering
overhead, breezy conditions will also continue today with
afternoon/early evening gusts ranging between 15-30 mph, with the
strongest gusts expected across Imperial County.

The main energy from the low will exit to the northeast on Wednesday
and will be absorbed by another larger scale trough that will
encompass most of the central and eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, a
trailing piece of energy is expected to become cutoff from the main
jet stream and form a new upper-level low across northern Sonora as
a ridge of high pressure builds across the west coast. This feature
will continue to gradually progress eastward through northern Sonora
through Thursday with no sensible weather impacts expected for our
region. As 500 mb height fields steadily rise with the building
ridge over the west coast, temperatures will be on a rapid warming
trend, warming into the middle 80s on Wednesday to middle 90s on
Thursday across the lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
The main story heading into the long term period will be a
prolonged heat episode that will materialize as triple digit
highs will be in place for several days. As the aforementioned
ridge continues to gradually build across the western CONUS,
temperatures will continue to gradually warm with lower desert
highs reaching the low 100s as early as Friday with widespread
highs in the low to mid 100s continuing through the weekend.
Heading into early next week, ensembles show the ridge intensifying
a bit more as 500 mb height fields near 590dm. This will result
in additional warming, with the latest NBM showing widespread
lower desert highs in the mid to upper 100s. With temperatures
heating up into the triple digits by the end of the week and
beyond, widespread Moderate HeatRisk will be in place across most
of the area. Thus, any vulnerable communities and those
participating in outdoor activities will need to take the
necessary heat precautions to avoid any heat-related illnesses.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1105Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Primary aviation impact today will be reduced CIGs during the
morning hours, gusty afternoon winds, and the off chance of a brief
thunderstorm. SCT to BKN CIGs as low as 5-6K ft AGL are anticipated
this morning, with improving coverage this afternoon and eventual
clearing skies late this evening. A few spotty SHRA may develop this
morning, with a low chance (<10%) for TSRA late morning to noon.
Shower chances in the Phoenix area diminish heading into the
afternoon. A W-SW wind is favored through the day, with afternoon
and evening gusts up to 20 kts. A late easterly shift is expected at
KPHX tonight.

Dependent on smoke generation by the wildfire in Buckeye, W-SW winds
today may pull more smoke into central portions of Phoenix and could
impact slantwise visibility, especially this evening.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
West to southwest winds will be favored at both terminals through
this evening, with gusts up to 20-25 kts for most of the day at
KIPL and during the afternoon and evening at KBLH. A few gusts may
reach 30 kts at KIPL early this morning and later this evening.
FEW to SCT cumulus clouds based around 7-8K ft AGL are expected
through the day and will clear this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Below normal temperatures will prevail today and Wednesday across
the region as readings across the lower deserts will top out in
the upper 70s today and middle 80s Wednesday. Scattered shower
activity will continue through this morning, particularly across
the higher terrain areas east of Phoenix. Total rainfall amounts
will generally average under 0.25" across most areas, with
locally higher amounts in the more persistent rain bands. Breezy
conditions will continue for today with afternoon/early evening
gusts peaking at 15-30 mph. MinRHs for this afternoon will remain
elevated with values bottoming out between 20-40%. Lighter winds
as well as much warmer temperatures and lower humidities are then
forecast for the latter half of the week and beyond as high
pressure builds back into our region.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero