El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

848
FXUS65 KPSR 271107
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
407 AM MST Mon Apr 27 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm back into the normal range starting
  Tuesday, likely staying there for the rest of the workweek.
  Hotter temperatures with lower desert highs into the nineties
  look possible by the weekend.

- A weather system is likely to bring rain chances to portions of
  the region on or around Thursday, but the timing and potential
  rainfall amounts are still quite uncertain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Tranquil weather conditions will continue early this week under
quasi-zonal dry westerly flow. Large scale upper level troughing
will persist across much of the Western U.S., but with no
organized shortwaves moving within the trough. The post cold
frontal air mass that only brought upper 70s for highs on Sunday
will be slow to modify today with highs still only topping out in
the upper 70s to maybe a few spots reaching the lower 80s under
sunny skies.

A bump in upper level heights is expected for Tuesday as a
Pacific low deepens well west of southern California allowing
highs to warm into the mid 80s, or just within the normal range.
This height pattern should carryover into Wednesday while the low
picks up eastward motion toward northern Baja. The biggest change
into Wednesday should be the increase in high clouds as moisture
associated with a sub-tropical jet shifts northward into the
southeastern 1/3rd Arizona. Temperatures should also nudge upward
another 2 or 3 degrees with highs more into the upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday may be shaping up to be an interesting weather day across
portions of Arizona if the Pacific weather system passes close
enough or even across southern Arizona. Model uncertainty is still
somewhat high with the GEFS indicating a slightly stronger system
with more moisture getting pulled northward into our area compared
to the EPS. Timing differences are also there with the EPS being
around 12 hours behind the GEFS and MSC, but for now sometime
Thursday looks to be the best chance for any rain chances. The
track of the low will also come into play as guidance shows the
low center moving along the Arizona/Mexico border. Any shift
toward the south would be detrimental for rain chances, while a
shift more into Arizona would be more ideal.

Upper level moisture will advect into the region from the south
southwest on Wednesday, with moisture gradually lowering with time
as the disturbance nears our area on Thursday. Ensembles do
mostly agree on PWATs increasing on Thursday to around 0.60-0.75",
or 150-175% of normal with some members exceeding 1.00".
Initially, some very high-based showers should become possible by
Thursday morning from Phoenix and areas the east and southeast,
but very dry air in the low levels is likely to prohibit any
measurable rainfall. It should not be until the afternoon/evening
hours when moisture improves enough within the low and mid levels
and forcing reaches its peak for showers and potentially some
thunderstorms to affect the area. So far moisture within the lower
levels looks quite meager, but it would not be surprising to have
enough moisture and instability in the mid-levels for some
convective activity to occur. Some ensemble members are picking up
on the convective potential indicating a potential of localized
QPF amounts of a half an inch or more. Additionally, any
thunderstorms that may develop could bring strong gusty winds with
the potential for blowing dust. PoPs remain somewhat low due to
the uncertainty with 10-20% across the western lower deserts,
25-40% over the south-central Arizona lower deserts to as high as
44-55% over the eastern Arizona high terrain.

Temperatures should dip again into or just below the normal range
on Thursday due to the weather system skirting by to our south,
but the slight cool down is likely to be short-lived. Once the
system moves east southeast of the region by around Friday, upper
level ridging should begin to filter in from the west. Whether the
warmer temperatures move in already on Friday or wait until
Saturday is still uncertain, but at the very least the lower
deserts should reach into the low to mid 90s by Saturday. The 90s
for highs are forecast to persist into Sunday and possibly into
next Monday, but NBM guidance shows another slight cool down may
occur early next week bringing temperatures back into the normal
range.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1107Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Aviation concerns will remain low through the forecast period,
aside from some breezy conditions again this afternoon. Winds are
expected to follow their overall typical diurnal tendency with a
later shift back to easterly during the overnight hours tonight.
Winds will gradually veer out of the SW on this morning with a
couple hour period of light southerly crosswinds possible. By this
afternoon, expect gusts to return at all terminals, reaching up to
15-20 kts at times. Winds will taper off this evening with speeds
returning to aob 10 kt. Clear skies will prevail over the region.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: T
Aviation concerns will remain low across SE California aside from
gusty winds from late this morning through this evening. Winds
are expected to remain S-SW at KBLH and W at KIPL through the
entire forecast period. Speeds have relaxed slightly at KIPL, but
remain around 10-15 kt. Speeds should remain aob 8 kts at KBLH
through most of the morning. Winds will increase at both
terminals later this morning and continue through the afternoon
and into the evening with gusts up to 20-25 kts becoming common.
Winds will then relax during the overnight hours. Clear skies are
expected to continue over the entire region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drying conditions along with a slight warm up are expected through
Tuesday. Look for MinRHs to fall to 15-20% this afternoon and
10-15% on Tuesday, while overnight recoveries transition from good
to poor to fair (25-40%) by Tuesday night. Winds will be on the
light side following diurnal patterns with only some occasional
upslope breeziness during the afternoon hours. Another weather
system is then forecast to move through the region during the
later half of the workweek leading to increased RH and chances
for rain and possibly some isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM..Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Berislavich/Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman