El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

739
FXUS65 KPSR 252357
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
457 PM MST Thu Dec 25 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation 00Z Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances diminish through the rest of the day, with chances
  for isolated light showers lingering mostly over the high
  terrain north and east of Phoenix.

- Another disturbance will bring chances for light rain mainly
  focused over the Arizona high terrain Friday night into
  Saturday.

- Temperatures will cool to near normal over the weekend then
  return to slightly above normal during the first half of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rain totals over the last 48 hours have ended up quite similar to
the forecast amounts from earlier this week, with lower deserts
generally ranging from a trace to a few tenths of an inch and
foothills/higher terrain areas north of Phoenix on the order of
0.25- 0.50". Unsurprisingly, rainfall over western JTNP
underperformed, but the Lost Horse RAWS received a respectable
0.66". An exception to the aforementioned lower desert totals
would be portions of far southeast CA and western La Paz County
along and near the Colorado River, where a final, moderate
intensity rain band tracked as the IVT plume progressed last
night, bringing their totals up to 0.40- 0.70". The combination
of wetting rains, clearing skies early in the morning and calm
winds led to the development of dense fog within the lower
Colorado River Valley and a few adjacent valleys in SE CA.

The forecast area is not completely done with rain chances in the
short term. The upper level pattern currently paints a similar
picture to that of yesterday, with a large trough centered off the
NorCal Coast, broad downstream ridging centered over the TX/LA
Gulf Coast, and deep southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest.
The shortwave disturbance responsible for near record levels of
IVT penetrating the Interior West is seen in current water vapor
imagery ejecting eastward over the Rockies this afternoon. With
its departure, the midlevels of the atmosphere have rapidly dried,
evident in PHX ACARS soundings early this afternoon, particularly
above ~725 mb. However, low level moisture remains, and so
isolated light showers or weak convective showers (though profiles
are not ideal, 50-100 J/kg MUCAPE exists) cannot be completely
ruled out over South-Central AZ, mostly favoring areas where
upslope ascent is occurring under southwesterly flow.

The upper level pattern will shift over the next 48-72 hours,
overall progressing eastward, but ensembles are in decent
agreement that a PV anomaly will detach from the base of the
trough currently off the west coast and retrograde offshore, well
to the southwest of the region by Sunday. As this transition
occurs, the Pacific trough will move onshore and acquire a
positive tilt as it approaches the forecast area Friday night into
Saturday. The passage of the trough will promote another round of
rain chances, though moisture will be more scarce with this
system and higher to the east/south of the area, and so the high
terrain east of Phoenix will be most favored for any rain chances
across South-Central AZ. The passage of this trough will also
usher in noticeably cooler air this weekend with lower desert
highs mostly dropping into the upper 60s, or within a couple
degrees of normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Model guidance has shifted away from any rain chances early next
week as much drier air is likely to filter into the region from
the north Sunday into Monday. We should also see some ridging over
the region early next week, but guidance continues to change the
positioning of a potential cut- off low off the coast of Baja. If
the ridge fully takes over across our region, we are likely to see
a boost in temperatures by around Tuesday with highs potentially
pushing near 75 degrees by Wednesday. Although guidance continues
to overall suggest the cut- off low will become a factor for our
region again at some point later next, forecast confidence remains
quite low. NBM PoPs seem too high for next Wednesday and Thursday
given the uncertainty, so we have trimmed PoPs by 30% across the
entire area. If the cut- off low does move back close to our
region or even into our region later next week, it at least looks
promising for some meaningful moisture return with PWATs again
forecast to reach near 1", or around 250% of normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1823Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Light winds, aob 10 kts, and VFR conditions will prevail through
the TAF period. SCT to BKN clouds around 5-6k ft will persist and
will become FEW this evening. A few lower clouds, down to 2k ft,
may develop Friday morning in the dawn hours, but are not expected
to pose any impacts to terminals. E`rly to NE`rly winds will
persist through the evening, then followed by more typical
diurnal trends by early tomorrow afternoon. A few spotty weak
showers cannot be ruled out through the afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No significant weather impacts are expected through the next 24
hours. Mostly clear skies currently will give way to SCT to BKN
high clouds by this evening. Winds at KIPL will maintain a
westerly direction with speeds around 5-10 kts and KBLH will favor
a southerly to southwesterly direction with similar speeds.
Localized fog along the Colorado River near KBLH is less likely
Friday morning, but cannot be ruled out.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An unsettled weather pattern will result in temperatures cooling
to within a few degrees of normal by Saturday, elevated
humidities, and additional chances for light rain over the high
terrain of the eastern districts Friday night into Saturday.
MinRHs will remain around 40-60% areawide through Saturday. A dry
cold front will likely pass over the region from the north Sunday
into early next week, causing breezy north winds across the AZ
high terrain and in the vicinity of the lower Colorado River
Valley. Until then, anticipate winds to remain fairly light
areawide, generally under 15 mph. The front will bring a drier air
mass over the region, decreasing humidities Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whittock
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Ryan/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock