El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

412
FXUS65 KPSR 021059
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
359 AM MST Thu Jul 2 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to warm through the rest of the week
  and into the first part of next week, reaching above normal
  levels by around Monday.

- As the heat builds, it will lead to increasing coverage of
  Moderate Heat Risk and highs eventually reaching 110 degrees
  next week.

- Dry conditions will prevail through at least the weekend before
  isolated storm chances return over the Arizona high terrain
  during the first part of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad upper level troughing remains positioned over the Western
U.S., but it continues to weaken while also beginning to shift
northward away from the Desert Southwest. A very strong upper
level ridge is also centered over the Southeastern U.S. and this
is expected to expand westward into Friday, quickly raising
heights over our region. H5 heights are forecast to rise from the
current 582-586dm to 589-593dm by Friday afternoon, but
temperatures will lag the rising heights by roughly a day. Highs
today will top 100 degrees across the bulk of the lower deserts
with the warmest locations reaching 102-104 degrees. Hotter
temperatures will be realized on Friday with forecast highs more
in a 104-107 degree range, but some higher clouds are expected to
begin moving in from the southwest. The low and mid levels will
however remain very dry going into the weekend with surface dew
points averaging 25-35 degrees and afternoon humidities still
dipping below 10%.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The not so bad temperatures to start off July will unfortunately
not last any longer as the subtropical high is expected to
gradually become more of a dominant feature starting this weekend.
Models have been struggling a bit with the incoming cloud cover
from a decaying tropical system well to our southwest and how much
it could impact temperatures this weekend. Forecast temperatures
for this weekend have been trending lower over the past couple of
days, likely somewhat due to the expected higher clouds but also
due to the ridge not strengthening any further. A decent amount of
semi-thick higher cloud cover on Saturday will easily keep
daytime highs within the normal range, but that may change going
into Sunday as the clouds should be decreasing. Forecast highs
Sunday still fall short of 110 degrees in most spots, but readings
are likely to reach between 107-109 degrees overall.

We will also have to begin to contend with increasing boundary
layer moisture and higher dew points making it feel more
uncomfortable as early as Sunday, but the higher humidities will
be more noticeable going into the middle of next week. Ensembles
have begun to shift where the center of the subtropical high is
most likely to set up early next week with it more likely shifting
directly over southern and central Arizona instead of to our
northeast. This should not last long however, as the high is then
favored to shift farther westward, potentially even settling off
the coast of California by next Wednesday. The exact positioning
of the high will not stop it from getting hotter as H5 heights are
heavily favored to rise more into a 592-595dm range starting
Monday and likely staying there through at least Tuesday and
possibly Wednesday before lowering slightly again. Temperatures
and humidities are expected to rise at the same time early next
week with daytime highs peaking on Tuesday and/or Wednesday
between 110-114 degrees across the lower deserts. This will lead
to a widespread Moderate HeatRisk with potentially even some
localized Major HeatRisk. Overnight temperatures will react to the
increasing moisture and higher daytime temperatures with lows
rising into the 80s nearly everywhere and potentially to near 90
degrees for portions of the Phoenix area by Tuesday.

Even with the increase in moisture during the first part of next
week, we are not expecting much convective potential. Lower level
moisture will still be very marginal with afternoon surface dew
points still mostly in the mid to upper 40s. The marginal moisture
will also have to contend with a high center directly over or
close to our area creating a decent amount of subsidence. We
may get some isolated Arizona high terrain showers or storms
starting Monday or Tuesday, but PoPs are barely reaching 10-15%.
For the latter half of next week, guidance is hinting at a further
increase in moisture, but nothing too drastic. It may be enough
to increase shower and storm coverage somewhat over higher terrain
areas, but for now storm chances for the lower deserts still look
to mostly remain below 10%.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period.
Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies with a brief period
of southerly winds late this morning before the afternoon westerly
shift. Winds will mostly be aob 10 kts, however, the possibility
of gusts in the mid teens may be possible this afternoon. Otherwise,
skies will remain mostly clear, with FEW high clouds moving into
the area near the end of the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period. At
KIPL, westerly winds shift out of the south to southeast by 14Z
and continue into the afternoon hours before shifting back out of
the west during the early evening hours. At KBLH, winds will
generally fluctuate out of the south to southwest. Overall wind
speeds will remain under 12 kts with some limited afternoon and
early evening gusts in the mid to upper teens. Skies will remain
mostly clear, with FEW high clouds moving into the area near the
end of the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will gradually move into the region over the next
few days allowing winds to return to normal patterns with only the
typical afternoon upslope/upvalley 15-20 mph gusts. Temperatures
will warm up further, rising into the normal range starting
Friday. Afternoon minimum humidities will continue to range
between 5-10% through at least Saturday with overnight recoveries
only reaching 15-30%. Despite the decrease in winds, seasonably
elevated fire danger will persist through the weekend due to very
dry conditions and very dry and receptive fuels. Moisture is
likely to begin to increase over the region during the first half
of next week allowing minimum humidities to improve to 10-15%, but
temperatures will also heat up further with lower desert highs
likely reaching 110 degrees.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman