El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

694
FXUS65 KPSR 030721
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1221 AM MST Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures with areas of moderate
  HeatRisk will prevail throughout the week before retreating
  closer to normal over the weekend.

- Other than a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm in
  eastern Arizona during the next few afternoons, dry conditions
  under mostly sunny skies will prevail through the weekend.

- Locally breezy conditions will develop late in the week and
  this weekend, particularly across the lower Colorado River
  Valley and higher terrain communities.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Current objective analysis reveals a fairly complex pattern over
CONUS with an omega block beginning to break down over the northern
tier of the county, while a weak Pacific low meanders close to the
Baja Peninsula. The latter of these features will continue on
southeastward progression, eventually settling over Chihuahua,
Mexico by the end of the workweek. During this progression, our
regional height field will not change much, hovering around 586-
587dam through Friday, slightly above normal for the start of June.
This will translate to surface temperatures also running a few
degrees (4-6F) above normal with lower desert highs running between
103-109 degress through Friday. Although not completely abnormal,
these temperatures will still result in widepsread Moderate
HeatRisk, posing a risk to those sensitive to the heat and others
who may not have ways of sufficiently cooling or hydrating
themselves.

The only noticeable deviation from hot and calm conditions through
the next few days will come in the form of some very isolated
showers and thunderstorms over far eastern Gila County this
afternoon and again Thursday, and some breezy conditions developing
around the Lower Colorado River Valley and higher terrain areas.
toward the end of the workweek. The slighty increased rainfall
potential is the result of some modest moisture advection working
its way westward from convective activity that spawned over central
and eastern New Mexico. PWAT anomalies may actually push north of
150-200% as far west as eastern Maricopa and Pinal Counties, but
given that June is climatologically our driest month, it does not
take much moisture to inflate those values. The best moisture will
be focused over the White Mountains, along with other enhanced
terrain features in Graham and Greenlee Counties. However, it is not
out of the question that convection over these area pushes an
outflow toward our area of Gila County and sparks some isolated
showers or thunderstorms, though chances are slim around 10-20%. As
for the winds, models have an eastern Pacific ridge interacting with
the previously mentioned northern Mexico low, subtly enhancing our
regional pressure gradient. By Thursday, gusts 20-25 mph will be
most common for areas mentioned above, increase to 25-30 mph by
Friday. With RH values running around 10% and below, even this
marginal breeziness will result in elevated fire danger.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As we head into the weekend, esembles point towards another trough
moving over western portions of the CONUS, which will eventually
become more amplified and stretch from British Columbia down the
California Coast. However, uncertainity remains regarding the
strength and positions of this potential disturbance. The increasing
tempeature spread through the weekend and into the start of next
week between the NBM 25th and 75th precentile refelcts this
uncertainity. Nonetheless, even with the cooler air associated with
this potential system, it appears widespread triple digits are here
to stay. Regardless of which esemble solution comes to fruition, the
contiuation of breezy, to perhaps locally windy, conditions appears
likely. The main question will be how strong gusts may become, which
will be depedent on how tight the regional pressure gradient
becomes. With little moisture flux, any breeziness will keep the
fire weather risk elevated at least through Sunday.

Forecast confidence does not improve for the start of next week as
model clusters show a wide variety of outomes, with some showing
continued troughing, while others favor the return of high pressure.
The return of ridging across the western CONUS appear to be most li
likely outcome at this time, but how amplified this feature becomes,
its placement, and if we remain under some influence of a lingering
area of low pressure remains uncertain at this time. One thing that
does appear certain though, other than our high terrain rain chances
today and Thursday, dry conditions are likely to prevail over the
next week at least for most of the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected through the forecast period.
Winds will follow typical diurnal trends with speeds remaining 8
kts or less. Skies will remain mostly clear through Wednesday
morning with a few passing cirrus and distant high terrain CU
developing by the afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected at the SE California terminals
through Wednesday afternoon. Winds will fluctuate between westerly
and southeasterly at KIPL and remain predominant southerly at
KBLH. Speeds should remain generally aob 10 kts at both terminals.
Skies will remain mostly clear with the exception of a few
passing high cirrus on Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The threat for a isolated dry thunderstorms over southern Gila
County today and Thursday is the main fire weather hazard over the
next few days. Winds will follow typical diurnal tendencies with
typical afternoon upslope breeziness the next couple of afternoons.
Gusts begin to pick up Friday and into the weekend, mainly across
the Lower Colorado River Valley and high terrain areas of the
eastern districts. With daily MinRHs hovering close to 5-10%, even
marginal breezes will result in periods of elevated fire weather
conditions. Isolated instances of near critical to critical
conditions cannot be ruled out. Overnight recovery will offer very
little in terms of relief as MaxRHs run between only 15-45% for
most areas. Breezy, to locally windy, conditions are likely to
continue into the weekend, potentially lingering into the start
of next week, resulting in a prolonged period of daily
occurrences of elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
starting on Friday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...RW