El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

470
FXUS65 KPSR 121955
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1255 PM MST Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A slow moving weather system will bring cooler temperatures and
  breezy to locally windy conditions through Monday as well as
  late Monday rain chances.

- Weak high pressure will settle back into the region during the
  middle of the week leading to drier and slightly warmer
  conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Large scale troughing continues across much of Western CONUS with
the core of this system now currently on shore of northern
Califonria. On GOES water vapor imagery a large swath of moisture can
be seen streaming into the Desert SW from the SW. This has lead to
skies today being mostly cloudy and will help bring temperatures
into the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts. This current
system will remain well to our region`s north but has tightened the
pressure gradient over the Desert SW, continuing the breezy to windy
conditions for this afternoon into the evening hours. Similar to the
past few days winds are expected to remain below advisory levels,
with wind gusts between 15-20 mph for most of the region, while
across southeast California and the higher terrains, gusts between
30-40 mph will be common.

By this evening into Monday morning the current system will move
eastwards into the Great Basin area and weaken. Meanwhile, a third
disturbance will dive along the California coast, reaching southern
California by Monday afternoon. With this system breezy to windy
conditions will continue similar to today, and will bring PWAT
anomalies to near 200% of normal across most of southeastern
Arizona. Additionally, as the core of this system will be closer to
the Desert SW a decent amount of PV energy will over the region,
which can lead to scattered showers across the region. The main
chances for activity will be Monday afternoon through Monday
night/early morning, with PoPs between 10-15% over southeast
California and southwest Arizona, 20-30% within Phoenix, to as high
as 40-50% over portions of the high terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The weather disturbance will begin exit to the east during the
first half of Tuesday with any limited lingering rain chances
across far eastern Arizona. Drier air will begin to move in from
the west on Tuesday allowing for skies to become clear to mostly
clear. Temperatures will however continue to be below normal with
the upper 70s to lower 80s on Monday carrying over into Tuesday.

Weak upper level ridging is then expected to move through the
region on Wednesday helping to boost daytime highs back into the
mid 80s, or right around normal. The weather pattern for the rest
of the week should stay relatively quiet, but a mostly dry
Pacific trough is likely to track by just to our north late in
the week. Ensemble guidance is still a bit uncertain with this
system, but for now has it tracking across the Four Corners area.
It is quite unlikely it will result in any rain chances, but we
very well could get another day or two of breezy conditions
around Thursday or Friday. The NBM has also responded by dropping
highs on Friday back into the lower 80s, but this will not last
long as incoming ridging favored for next weekend should
eventually push readings back to above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1715Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concerns over the next 24 hrs will be another
period of gusty winds this afternoon and evening. Winds will
become dominate from the west with gusts up to 20-25 kts into the
early evening. Winds will drop below 10kts tonight and the wind
shift should be later than normal to the southeast, but
confidence is low to the extent of this diurnal shift tonight.
High clouds will be abundant through the period with some SCT
clouds as low as 9k feet. Virga and a few sprinkles will be
possible overnight and into Monday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concerns at both TAF sites will be gusty winds,
especially this afternoon and evening, with gusts 20-30 kts. Winds
will remain westerly at KIPL and south to southwesterly at KBLH
through the TAF period. SCT-BKN high clouds will continue to be
common through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An unsettled weather pattern will continue through the first part
of this week resulting in near to below normal temperatures and
slightly elevated humidities. MinRHs through Monday will mostly
average 20-25% with overnight recoveries of 40-70%. Winds will
somewhat follow diurnal patterns, but with more of a predominant
southwesterly direction and gusty afternoon and evening winds of
25-35 mph over much of the area. Chances for light showers will be
possible later Monday and Monday night, but CWR will remain below
10%. Weak high pressure will then settle back over the region
during the latter half of the week leading to drier conditions
and temperatures staying close to normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Frieders
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman