El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

627
FXUS65 KPSR 272343
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
443 PM MST Fri Feb 27 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably strong high pressure will remain in place into the weekend
  with dry conditions and afternoon highs near 20 degrees above
  normal.

- Multiple daily record highs and overnight lows are likely to be tied
  or broken in Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro through the weekend.

- Cooler temperatures, although remaining above normal, along with
  continued dry conditions can be expected next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
An unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure remains in place
across the Desert Southwest, with 500 mb height fields in excess of
585dm along with 850 mb temperatures near 20C currently. Both of
these measures are near record maximums for late February. Heading
into the weekend, the ridging pattern will remain in place although
weaken slightly. Even though the upper-level height fields will
lower, 850 mb temperatures will continue to remain close to 20C,
thus resulting in little to no changes in surface temperatures.
Afternoon high temperatures through the weekend will top out in
the low to mid 90s across most of the lower desert communities,
with some areas across the western deserts approaching the upper
90s. Temperatures of these magnitudes will most certainly
challenge daily record highs as well as challenge the all-time
warmest February temperature for all of the three major climates
sites (Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro). In addition, daily record
warm lows will also be possible across all three climate sites as
overnight lows are expected to only bottom out in the low to mid
60s. Even though the HeatRisk level will be in the minor
category, given how early in the year this heat is occurring and
the increased number of visitors that are more typically
acclimated to colder climates this time of the year, it is
important to take the necessary heat precautions if planning
outdoor activities during the warmest portion of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
The first in a series of shortwaves will enter the western Conus
during the first half of next week, though height falls will be
somewhat gradual to arrive with sfc-H8 temperatures responding even
slower. The trend among operational and ensemble members is now
towards a more progressive and open wave propagating through
northern Arizona introducing only modest and temporary height falls
across the CWA. However, this evolution may be sufficient to incur
gusty, downsloping sundowner winds in the typical wind prone areas
of far SW Imperial County Monday evening. Otherwise, thermal
profiles will only be depressed slightly with this more northern
shortwave track, and guidance suggests temperatures only retreating
to around 10F-15F above normal. This progression also reinforces the
idea of poor moisture availability, and it would be surprising if
any location in the state received precipitation. However, it still
appears this wave will carve out a void in the midlevel flow pattern
encouraging trailing shortwave energy to establish mean negative
height anomalies over the Great Basin, and eventually increased
precipitation chances, albeit beyond the temporal scope of this
forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2340Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds will follow familiar diurnal trends will speeds generally
less than 8 kt. FEW to SCT high clouds will will become BKN
tomorrow afternoon.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns will exist through the next 24
hours. Winds at both terminals will be out of the W/NW. Speeds at
KIPL will aob 7 kt. Whereas at KBLH, wind speeds will generally be
aob 10 kt, with some occasional gusts into the mid teens possible
during the afternoon and early evening hours. FEW to SCT high
clouds will will become BKN tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry weather will continue through the middle of next week
as well-above normal temperatures cool slightly as the weather
pattern begins to shift. Minimum afternoon humidity levels will
fall into the teens across the lower elevations with some areas
nearing single digits Sunday and Monday. Humidity levels will only
be somewhat higher in foothills and mountains. This will follow
mostly fair to good overnight recovery of 30-60% though some areas
of poor recovery under 20% will exist early next week. Wind
speeds will largely remain under 15 mph with modest afternoon
upslope gusts 15- 25 mph becoming common. The strongest gusts
would be expected Monday and Thursday afternoon. Overall
conditions will be favorable for early spring prescribed burning
operations.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily High Temperature Records:

       Phoenix      Yuma      El Centro
      ---------   ---------   ---------
2/27  92 (1986)   95 (1986)   96 (1986)
2/28  89 (1986)   97 (1986)   92 (1986)
3/1   89 (2016)   93 (1986)   91 (2016)
3/2   90 (2016)   94 (1910)   92 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...18
CLIMATE...Benedict