El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

402
FXUS65 KPSR 250036
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
536 PM MST Wed Dec 24 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation 00Z Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect through this afternoon and a
  Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the
  western, higher elevation portion of Joshua Tree National Park.

- An unsettled weather pattern will carry us through the
  Christmas holiday and beyond, with gradually cooling
  temperatures and at least one more distinct period of increased
  rain chances in the short term, focused this evening into
  Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper level pattern remains fairly unchanged, with an
anomalously deep longwave trough off the West Coast and broad
downstream ridging encompassing much of the CONUS. This places
the Desert Southwest roughly between these two large-scale
features, under deep, moist southwesterly flow.

Robust northward moisture transport over the region coupled with
orographic influences and a transient, weak shortwave disturbance
now exiting to the northeast promoted scattered light showers
through much of the morning across the forecast area. So far, rain
totals have been quite low across the area, as was expected. Most
of the lower deserts have observed between a trace and up to
around 0.10", and some automated gauges around the Salton Sea, far
western Imperial County, and western Joshua Tree NP have observed
around 0.20". As we head through the rest of the afternoon,
guidance continues to advertise a break in rain chances, though
spotty light showers (producing generally <0.05" accumulations)
will remain possible, especially over the foothills and higher
terrain north and east of Phoenix.

The overall large-scale pattern will stagnate through Thursday,
but an IVT plume forced by a second disturbance and attendant jet
max rounding the eastern flank of the trough will bring renewed
rain chances across the area this evening through Thursday
morning, mostly focused along the northern and western CWA (but
not excluding South-Central AZ entirely). IVT values will be quite
impressive with this second disturbance, with NAEFS mean IVT
upwards of 500 kg/ms penetrating far inland over western Utah, far
southern Idaho, southeastern Nevada, and northwestern Arizona
tonight. These values represent the climatological record maximum
values for this time of year according to CFSR climatology. The
only detractor for our rain chances will be the fact that the area
of better forcing will remain far removed, ejecting north
northeastward and over the Great Basin tonight. Anticipate the
band of rain associated with this second disturbance to be heavily
rain shadowed by coastal mountains but to move into Southeast CA
this evening, bringing the highest rain totals to the more
prominent terrain of western JTNP (where a Flood Watch remains in
effect through 10 PM PST). The band will continue to break apart
at its southern extent, becoming more scattered as it moves into
the lower deserts and approaches South-Central AZ Thursday early
morning. Additional periods of isolated to scattered showers are
likely for the rest of Thursday with the main area of focus over
the foothills and higher terrain areas of central Arizona.

Temperatures today have warmed only slightly from their record
warm lows this morning, thanks in part to the continued presence
of thick cloud cover and spotty shower activity. Though forecast
highs are in the middle 70s for many lower desert locations, those
that do not see a break in the clouds before the afternoon is
over may struggle to get out of the 60s. Highs in the middle 70s
are forecast Thursday as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The deep Pacific trough is forecast to weaken quickly going into
Friday with the system breaking apart into two pieces, one quickly
ejecting northeastward into the Northern Rockies and another
drifting southward off the coast of California. Drier air is
expected to push into our region from the southwest Friday into
the weekend with PWATs eventually falling to below normal across
at least western portions of the region. What happens with the
leftover energy from the trough and its track is still quite
uncertain, but trends have been pulling it farther away from our
region. If this continues, we are likely to see a break in the
rain chances by the end of Friday and lasting through the weekend.
A cooler air mass should eventually settle in over our region by
Friday and last through the weekend with highs dropping into the
upper 60s to the lower 70s.

Model uncertainty increases a good deal by early next week as the
leftover trough energy may drift back closer to our region,
potentially bringing another round of moisture advection and rain
chances as early as Monday and lasting through the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0035Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

VCSH/SHRA and lowered CIGs will be the primary aviation weather
issues throughout the TAF period. The first wave of light shower
activity has already started to move out the the Phoenix Metro,
however CIGs for much of tonight will remain between 8-10k ft or
above. The next round of rain showers are forecast for tomorrow
morning, but confidence remains low in exact timing, and coverage
of the showers. During the expected morning activity CIGs will
fall to their lowest level through early afternoon, down as low
as 3-4k ft. CIGs then rise slightly and become more SCT later in
the afternoon. There is a low chance (10%) for additional pop-up
showers tomorrow afternoon and evening. Winds through the TAF
periods will predominantly favor the east with speeds mostly aob
10 kts and periods of variability. A mid to late afternoon wind
shift to the west is then expected tomorrow.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A few isolated showers are entering in the broad area of the
terminals as another band of showers is beginning to move in this
evening through midnight before moving off to the east. CIGs down
to around 5-7k ft are expected through tomorrow morning, with a
slight chance (30%) of dipping to 3k ft (MVFR) in the showers.
Surface visibility may also fall to MVFR in showers. Clouds then
become FEW to SCT by tomorrow afternoon. Winds will predominantly
favor the E-SE at KIPL through this afternoon followed by a period
of westerly winds with the showers. Winds at KBLH will shift
around to the south this afternoon and, at both terminals, with
enough clearing up of the skies, increase in speed to around 10-14
kts with gusts to around 20 kts tomorrow evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An unsettled weather pattern will result in gradually cooling
temperatures, increased humidities, and periodic chances for
light to moderate rain showers mainly through Thursday, though
slight rain chances return over the AZ high terrain Friday
evening into Saturday as another weather disturbance influences
the region. MinRHs will range between 40-60% areawide and stay
elevated into the weekend. Winds will mostly prevail out of the
south to southeast through Thursday, with speeds generally 5-15
mph, and locally stronger gusts upwards of 20 to 30 mph across
portions of Southwest AZ and Southeast CA today.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for CAZ560.

     Flood Watch until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ560.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whittock
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Ryan/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Kuhlman