El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

822
FXUS65 KPSR 250501
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1001 PM MST Tue Mar 24 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably hot conditions will continue to challenge daily
  temperature records through the rest of the week and weekend.

- The abnormally hot conditions may be dangerous, especially for
  any strenuous outdoor activities without proper hydration and
  frequent breaks in the shade, or air conditioning.

- Temperatures should finally begin to back away from record
  territory by the end of the weekend and start of next week as
  the high shifts east and cloud cover and shower chances
  increases.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging has re-amplified over the Southwest CONUS, with midday H5
heights around 588-590dam. While not as strong as last-week`s
record-strength high, these heights are still at record levels for
this time of year. This strong high pressure will persist through
the next few days, although the center of the high will shift a
little further southeast as the compact closed low, currently
west of Baja Peninsula, works around the northwest side of the
high, up through Las Vegas tomorrow into Thursday. Temperatures
this afternoon will be nearly identical to yesterday, with lower
desert highs reaching the upper 90s in most places, and then
highs will warm a few degrees into tomorrow and Thursday with the
shift to a southerly/southwesterly warm-air advection as the
closed low maneuvers by. Highs are expected to once again reach
100 degrees tomorrow and Thursday, in most lower desert
communities, which is still around 20 degrees above normal and at
daily record levels. Although also pushing record warmth, morning
lows will at least still feel cool as they bottom out in the 60s,
to as high as 70 degrees in Phoenix.

There will be an increase in breeziness across the region tomorrow
and Thursday afternoons and evenings, with a tightened pressure
gradient as the closed low passes by to the northwest. Significant
wind gusts are not expected, given the weak intensity of the low.
Wind gusts will mostly peak around 15-25 mph, with highest gusts
favoring mountain ridges and north and east-facing slopes.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
After the closed low/shortwave ejects through the Plains, ridging
will once again amplify across the Western CONUS, but the center
of the high is fortunately forecast to stay southeast of the
local area and H5 heights are not expected to rise. Despite this,
global ensemble guidance has 850mb temperatures peaking at the end
of this week. So, temperatures are expected to be highest at the
end of the week and latest NBM forecast has high temperatures
peaking on Friday, with values reaching 100-103 degrees.

An influx of moisture this weekend and a further displacement of
the high to the east to the Gulf States, will allow at least a
slow decline in temperatures, but high temperatures are forecast
to remain 15-20 degrees above normal through this weekend and push
record highs. In fact, current NBM forecast highs for Phoenix Sky
Harbor would tie or break daily record highs each day from now
until Monday. Having already eclipsed six consecutive daily
records, through yesterday, there is a good probability of
extending this streak to as much as 13 days before things are all
said and done. In addition to the current 6-day streak of record
highs, Phoenix has also tied or broken the daily record high on 4
other days this month. With all these records, and no signs of a
significant cooldown the rest of the month, Phoenix - and likely
most of the region - will set a new record March mean monthly
temperature. Phoenix is currently at a mean monthly temperature of
76.9 degrees, through yesterday, and the current record is 72.3
degrees in 2004. A mean monthly temperature of 76.7 or higher in
Phoenix would even rank in the top 5 hottest Aprils.

The mentioned influx of moisture this weekend will be tied to the
high pressure migrating eastward toward the Texas Gulf Coast,
imparting southerly flow over the region and tapping into sub-
tropical moisture in Mexico. There will also be a relatively
strong back-door cold front that will increase surface moisture
from the east, with a strong easterly wind Saturday morning across
southern AZ. Global ensemble mean guidance shows PWATs pushing up
to 200-250% of normal across south-central AZ to as high as 300%
of normal in southeast AZ. This moisture influx and overall pattern
will at a minimum, increase cloud cover over the region, which
will help limit some of the daytime solar radiation. This pattern
has some resemblances to a Fall monsoon transition and there will
be chances for rain showers and thunderstorms, mostly favoring
eastern and southeastern AZ based on latest guidance. The setup is
not the most ideal for the lower deserts of south-central AZ,
including Phoenix and the latest NBM has PoPs in Phoenix peak at
5-10% in the afternoons and evenings Sunday through Tuesday.
The overall synoptic forcing will likely be very limited, mainly
to daytime heating and orographic lift, with no indications in
current modeling of any jet support or PVA to help better the
chances for the lower deserts. GFS model soundings support inverted-V
profiles, with high DCAPE values, which may at least lead to
gusty outflow boundaries percolating across the region with any
convection.

Although it is at least a week out, there is high confidence that
troughing will develop along the West Coast early next week with
a leading trough moving across the Southwest sometime in the
Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe. This may provide better forcing,
along with any frontal boundary, for showers and storms, as well
as cool temperatures down further. There is still uncertainty this
far out with the depth of troughing across the Southwest and any
additional shortwave troughs, but temperatures may only cool to
normal or slightly above normal, which lines up with current CPC
8-14 day outlook. One thing the troughing will also bring is more
wind, which may pose fire weather risks across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under generally clear skies will
persist throughout the TAF period. Winds will continue to exhibit
the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 10 kts with light
and variable conditions likely, especially before the diurnal
switchover.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies will persist
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will remain out of the
southeast through Wednesday afternoon, shifting out of the west
during the evening hours. At KBLH, winds will generally fluctuate
between the south to southwest throughout the period. Overall
speeds will be aob 12 kts, with some elevated gusts during the
afternoon hours at KBLH and evening hours at KIPL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Record heat along with dry conditions will persist through at
least the start of this weekend. MinRHs through the workweek will
generally range between 5-10%, with MaxRHs generally between
20-40% through Friday night. Increasing moisture and "cooling"
temperatures will lead to a slight uptick in RHs this weekend
through early next week. Winds will tend to follow typical diurnal
tendencies. Although, there will be a marginal increase in
afternoon southwesterly breezes tomorrow and Thursday. Breezy to
locally windy conditions will likely develop Saturday morning
across southern AZ. While winds will likely be strongest over
mountain ridges and decrease after sunrise Saturday, as is
typical in these setups, easterly wind gusts still pushing over
25 mph late morning through the afternoon may lead to elevated
fire weather conditions. There are at least low chances for rain
showers and storms Sunday through Tuesday, favoring higher terrain
east of Phoenix and any convection that develops may generate
gusty outflow winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record highs through this week:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/24     96 in 2025     97 in 2025     96 in 2025
3/25     99 in 2025     99 in 1896     99 in 2025
3/26    100 in 1988     99 in 1988     98 in 1988
3/27     98 in 1986    100 in 1986     99 in 1988
3/28     95 in 2015     98 in 2015     98 in 2015
3/29     97 in 2015    100 in 1897     97 in 1969

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict/RW
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/RW
CLIMATE...RW/18