El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

514
FXUS65 KPSR 072255
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
355 PM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will continue into early next
  week, with lower desert highs reaching the lower to middle
  eighties, resulting in areas of Minor Heat Risk.

- A pattern change next week will cool temperatures somewhat and
  may eventually bring rain chances to eastern portions of the
  forecast area by late week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current midlevel water vapor imagery and objective analysis show
a broad area of positive height anomalies associated with West-
Central CONUS ridging, and a potent longwave trough over the
East/Northeastern CONUS. Undercutting the broad West-Central
CONUS ridge, 500 mb RAP analysis places the center of a closed
upper low off the west coast of Baja California, continuing its
south southeastward trajectory early this weekend. Over the next
few days, the overall pattern will progress such that the potent
trough over the Northeastern CONUS moves off into the Atlantic,
with ridging building in its wake over the Central/Eastern CONUS.
Meanwhile, a series of shortwave troughs impact primarily the
Pacific Northwest and the closed upper low remains distant to our
south, settling off the west coast of the Southern Baja by Sunday
before ejecting eastward into Northern Mexico late Monday-
Tuesday.

Locally, conditions will remain unseasonably warm through early
this upcoming work week, as positive height anomalies (H5 heights
in a 575-580 dam range) remain entrenched over the forecast area.
Mid and high level moisture transport coupled with divergent flow
ahead of the closed low may result in scattered virga/light
showers, and perhaps even some isolated t-storms over portions of
Southeastern AZ today, but this should remain outside of the CWA.
Subsidence and temperatures aloft increase Sunday-Monday as a more
potent shortwave impacting the Pacific Northwest pumps up heights
downstream and sends a transient ridge axis over the region.
NAEFS mean 850 mb temperatures peak around 15C-16C, in excess of
the 90th percentile of CFSR climatology, resulting in surface
temperatures a few degrees warmer Sunday-Monday compared to
today. As such, widespread afternoon highs in the lower 80s can be
expected across the lower deserts, with some of the warmest spots
even reaching the middle 80s, around 12F-14F above daily normals.
Morning lows will also be unusually warm; in fact, the latest NBM
gives a 50% probability that the low temperature Sunday will tie
or break the record warm value of 57F (set in 1976) at Phoenix Sky
Harbor Airport.

Afternoon highs in the 80s translates to Minor HeatRisk, meaning
those extremely sensitive to heat may experience heat-related
health impacts, especially without adequate hydration. Folks
attending outdoor events this weekend should continue to stay
hydrated and take breaks in the shade.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ensembles remain in good agreement that another troughing feature
will dive down the West Coast starting Tuesday and remain to the
west of the region through the middle of the week, bringing an
increase in mostly high clouds and gradually lowering heights
aloft. Meanwhile, a piece of shortwave energy looks to break from
the center of negative height anomalies along the West Coast and
move over the Great Basin, bringing meager precipitation chances
to the Northern AZ high country Tuesday-Wednesday. Temperatures
will cool during the middle of the week in response to this
developing unsettled pattern, with lower desert highs generally
falling into the middle 70s (still above normal for the time of
year.)

Upper level forcing and better quality moisture do not align to
bring rain chances to the forecast area until late in the week,
when most ensembles agree the lingering trough axis to our west
will finally eject eastward. This will bear watching over the next
few days, but confidence is still low on this initial system
bringing much precipitation due to its short residence time,
warming aloft (indicating weakening), and positively tilted axis
as it moves onshore. Confidence is increasing, however, on a more
potent trough deepening over the Eastern Pacific next weekend and
impacting the region early the following week. This might be our
best chance at more widespread, appreciable precipitation totals,
however details are still unclear this far out.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2255Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major weather issues will exist through Sunday afternoon under
occasional mid/high cloud decks. Winds will follow typical
diurnal trends for Central Arizona terminals while N/NW`rly winds
will be favored for Southeast California sites. Prolonged periods
of VRB to calm conditions will be common across the region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue into
early next week. Afternoon MinRHs will range from 15-25% areawide
through Monday, with overnight recoveries generally in a 35-65%
range. Winds will remain light, generally below 15 mph through
Monday, with a northerly fetch. By the middle of the upcoming work
week, a pattern change is expected which will help cool
temperatures several degrees (though they will remain above
normal), increase humidities slightly, and bring occasionally
breezy conditions. Late in the week, a weather system will pass
through the region, providing 15-30% chances for wetting rain
over higher terrain areas of the eastern districts.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whittock
LONG TERM...Whittock/Ryan
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Ryan