El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

141
FXUS65 KPSR 260516
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1015 PM MST Sun Jan 25 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold mornings with seasonal afternoon temperatures are expected
through the first half of the week.

- Dry and tranquil weather conditions will prevail through the week
with a slow warming trend into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The atmosphere has dried considerably over the last 12-24 hours in
the wake of the shortwave trough which is now pushing through
northern TX. Surface RH values have decreased by up to 20-40% and
PWAT values are down to 0.1-0.2" on mesoanalysis. Cooler air has
also filtered into the region, with most areas experiencing lows
this morning in the 30s to mid 40s. Highs this afternoon will reach
the mid to upper 60s across the lower deserts, slightly below normal
for late January, with mostly sunny skies. Lighter winds tonight and
tomorrow morning, along with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies,
will lead to slightly cooler temperatures than this morning.
Isolated areas of frost may form Monday morning in parts of Pinal
County, where temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s.

Monday will feature some breeziness across southern AZ after
sunrise, in response to a strong surface high (1040mb) developing in
CO. Easterly wind gusts up to 15-25 mph are expected with gradual
relaxing of the winds through the afternoon. After another cold
morning, high temperatures will warm a couple degrees, back to
around seasonal levels, while under scattered high clouds.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through the rest of the workweek and next weekend, a progressive
pattern will take shape with successive ridges and troughs within a
subtropical westerly flow. Despite the troughs, prevailing positive
500mb height anomalies are forecast throughout the next week by
global ensembles. This will result in at least a slow warming trend
through the week, with lower desert high temperatures pushing middle
70s by the middle of the week and upper 70s by next weekend. A
trough mid to late week will bring an increase in mid and high
clouds and likely virga to the Desert Southwest, but that is about
it. Previous model runs had some light precipitation with this
trough, but that is all but gone now. Latest NBM has PoPs max out
around 5% with this trough. So, expect continued dry conditions, and
overall tranquil weather conditions, through the next 7 days at
least.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather concerns will exist through Monday night under
thickening cirrus decks. Confidence is fairly good that easterly
winds will prevail throughout the period with only modest
probabilities of minor variability around sunset Monday. There may
be a few gusts around 15kt late Monday morning, though having
minimal impact on operations.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather concerns will exist through Monday night under periods of
thick cirrus decks. Winds will generally favor a north component at
KBLH and NW at KIPL, however extended periods of nearly calm
conditions will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather conditions will prevail through at least the next week,
with daily MinRH values around 10-25% across all districts.
Overnight humidity recoveries will be around 35-55% in most
populated and agricultural areas. With the dry conditions, no
precipitation is expected. Elevated easterly winds winds are
expected the next few mornings across southern AZ districts, with
gusts up to 15-25 mph. Otherwise, expect light diurnally driven
winds. Temperatures will be near normal the next few days and then
warm above normal by the second half of the week into next weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Benedict
LONG TERM...Benedict
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict