El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

573
FXUS65 KPSR 272013
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
113 PM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Regional temperatures will continue their gradual warming trend
  through the week, with highs likely reaching near 80 degrees by
  the weekend.

- Persistent high pressure will translate to dry and tranquil
  conditions through at least the first few days of February.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Current objective analysis reveals high amplitude ridging
centered over the Great Basin and up through the Canadian Rockies,
promoting quiet conditions for a good portion of the western
CONUS. As for the Desert Southwest, dry weather with warming
temperatures will be main story through the next few days. Global
models do point towards a Pacific trough moving onshore before
eventually diving through the Intermountain West during mid-week.
While the trajectory of this system will be too far to north to
bring any significant changes, the tightening of the regional
pressure gradient will likely generate breezy conditions,
particularly around the Lower Colorado River Valley and high
terrain east of the Phoenix metro. This wave will also suppress
500mb height rises during the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe,
likely causing a brief pause in day-to-day temperature increases,
especially for areas east of the Colorado River that will be in
closer proximity to the low. The thermal pause will be brief as
this disturbance ejects to the Plains by Thursday allowing for the
resumption of increasing heights aloft. Temperatures this
afternoon for the lower deserts will be near normal in the upper
60s to lower 70s, increasing to the lower and middle 70s by
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper-lvl pattern will not change much through the end of
the workweek as our forecast area remains between ridging over
the West Coast and troughing over the midwest. A series of
shortwave troughs will progress through the Intermountain West
late this week. However, these shortwaves will have little to no
affect on our weather aside from bringing breezy conditions to the
Lower Colorado River Valley Thursday and Friday. As ridging aloft
continues to build over the West Coast, temperatures will warm a
couple degrees each consecutive day with highs across the lower
deserts pushing into the mid 70s by the end of the week.

Ensemble members remain in agreement that the ridge of high
pressure over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward,
resulting in 500 mb hghts rising to around 580-582 dam over the
Desert Southwest Saturday and Sunday. This will result in a return
of well above normal temperatures (8 to 10 degrees above normal).
Latest NBM deterministic guidance shows highs reaching well into
the upper 70s and even a few 80 degree readings across the lower
deserts this weekend. It does look like the ridge will finally
shift east of our region early next week and be replaced with
shortwave troughing. As this occurs, we could see temperatures dip
by a few degrees Monday and Tuesday. For now the forecast will
remain dry through at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light and diurnal with speeds aob 7 kts
along with extended periods of variable to calm conditions. Clear
skies will prevail through this afternoon before high cirrus decks
move in by this evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period.
Winds will generally exhibit a west to north component with speeds
aob 7 kts along with extended periods of variable to calm
conditions. Clear skies will give way to increasing high cirrus
decks by late this afternoon/early this evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will prevail through the
remainder of this week and into this weekend. Afternoon minimum
humidity values will range from 10-25% across all districts with
overnight recoveries ranging from fair to poor around 35-55%.
Elevated easterly winds winds are expected again this morning
across the higher terrain areas of southcentral AZ where gusts up
to 20-25 mph will be possible. Winds will become lighter this
afternoon and follow typical diurnal patterns. There could be some
breeziness across the Lower Colorado River Valley Thursday and
Friday, otherwise wind speeds should remain less than 15 mph.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Lojero/Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno