El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

079
FXUS65 KPSR 302016
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
115 PM MST Tue Dec 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An unsettled weather regime will result in a few rounds of light
rain showers from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night.

- Drier weather should return by the weekend with temperatures
hovering near to slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Sharp upper level ridging has become established over the SW Conus
ahead of an expansive cyclone spinning west of the Baja peninsula.
Deep southerly flow between these features is promoting robust
moisture advection above the H7 level reflected on satellite as a
thick blanket of clouds progressing into the Southwest, and
initiating the first vestiges of a top down saturation process.
Little more than virga would be anticipated through Wednesday
morning as dry air remains parked in the sfc-H7 layer, and ascent
mechanisms are essentially absent under the influence of the upper
level ridge. However, lower level moisture profiles will improve
throughout the day Wednesday as the aforementioned cyclonic
circulation begins opening and propagating towards the southern
California coast imparting notable ascent and a period of unsettled
weather.

Forecast PWATs will increase to around 250% of normal by Wednesday
morning before peaking around 300% of normal late Wednesday
afternoon/overnight. Models remain consistent in depicting strong
theta-e advection in a H8-H7 layer midday aiding in moistening the
boundary layer via deep, albeit only modest isentropic upglide
through a 300K-315K layer. This forced ascent will increase markedly
Wednesday afternoon with models showing a band of light rain
developing into southern Arizona and rapidly spreading north. Larger
uncertainty continues with respect to the haste at which saturation
becomes sufficient to produce measurable rainfall, however recent
guidance and historical precedent under stronger theta-e surges
suggests a rather abrupt conversion. Regardless, confidence is good
that scattered light showers will advance through south-central
Arizona Wednesday evening into the overnight with lesser confidence
of measurable rain in the western CWA. At this time, the
preponderance of model evidence indicates accumulation for most
locations 0.00-0.20" with isolated instances of slightly higher
amounts (likely concentrated in upslope areas).

While rich boundary layer moisture with mixing ratios around 8 g/kg
will remain abundant Thursday and certainly capable of supporting
persistent orographically forced showers over higher terrain
locations, a break in activity is likely across lower elevations
awaiting the main shortwave and vorticity forced ascent arriving
from southern California Thursday afternoon. Areal coverage of
showers THursday afternoon and evening may become limited as the
attendant shortwave rapidly weakens and lifts into northern Arizona
while midlevels begin drying, however anomalous low level moisture
will be available for any amount of lift. Similar to the initial
round of showers Wednesday, rainfall amounts should be rather light
with totals again under 0.25" for the majority of the forecast area.
Rain chances will quickly translate east into higher terrain areas
Thursday night as the vorticity center shifts into the four corners
and general subsidence begins bleeding into the bulk of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Upper level ridging and drier air aloft will quickly work into the
region by Friday, ending rain chances across the higher terrain by
Friday afternoon. Gradual drying is expected to continue through the
weekend as troughing remains positioned across the eastern Pacific
into the Western U.S. There will likely be another couple of
shortwaves moving through the trough through early next week, but
the first one should miss our region to the north. By the time the
second one potentially gets close to our region early next week,
moisture should be much more limited resulting in little if any
additional rain chances.

Despite the unsettled weather pattern late this week into next week,
temperatures are expected to stay quite mild. The NBM shows daily
highs mostly in the upper 60s to the lower 70s with overnight lows
staying at least 10 degrees above normal through Friday night.
Eventually by early next week, overnight lows will dip lower with
readings back into the 40s to lower 50s once some drier air moves
back into the area.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1750Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns will exist through Wednesday morning
under SCT-BKN mid and high cloud decks. Winds will maintain an east
component through the period, with speeds currently 10-15 kts (and
occasional higher gusts) at KPHX and 5-10 kts at the other
terminals. Speeds will gradually decrease heading through the
afternoon into the evening.

Wednesday by mid-late afternoon, anticipate SHRA and lower CIGs to
enter the airspace from the southwest. This shower activity will
likely cause an abrupt, temporary wind shift out of the southwest as
it approaches the terminals. CIGs should prevail around 050-070 by
00Z Thursday but are anticipated to continue lowering through the
evening hours. Low to moderate confidence in MVFR CIGs exists
Wednesday night into Thursday morning (up to 40-50% chance).


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation concerns are expected through Wednesday morning
under SCT-BKN mid and high cloud decks. Winds will generally vary
between north and west with speeds AOB 10 kts, becoming very light
with periods of variability overnight. By the end of the TAF period,
lower decks of clouds (070-100 at 18Z Wednesday) will begin to fill
in over the airspace and continue to lower heading into the
afternoon. A period with VCSH conditions may develop at both
terminals by the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Slightly above normal temperatures and dry conditions will give way
to a rapid increase in moisture Wednesday. Minimum humidity levels
in a 20-30% range at lower elevations, and somewhat higher in far
eastern districts today will increase closer to 25-40% Wednesday
before peaking at 50-70% for Thursday and Friday. Enhanced north to
northeast winds will be common again today, particularly across
ridge tops of eastern districts where gusts of 20-30 mph will be
possible through early afternoon. Speeds should relax by Wednesday
as clouds and humidity levels increase. Periods of showers are then
expected during the latter half of Wednesday through Thursday with
overall light rainfall amounts for much of the lower deserts to 0.25-
0.75" in higher terrain areas. Somewhat drier conditions will work
back into the region by the weekend, but humidities will remain
elevated as temperatures remain 5-8 degrees above normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman/18
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman