El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

766
FXUS65 KPSR 140729
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1229 AM MST Sat Mar 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong high pressure will keep temperatures well above normal
  through this weekend and the start of the upcoming week.

- Further strengthening of the high will result in an
  unprecedented heat wave for March with widespread triple digits
  expected by Wednesday, and readings near 105 degrees by
  Thursday, shattering daily records by as much as 10 degrees.

- An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for Wednesday morning for
  Southeast California, then expanding Thursday morning into
  southern Arizona.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Current objective analysis reveals a generally quiet pattern for the
southern tier of the CONUS with quasi-zonal flow stretching from
coast to coast. Focusing on the Desert Southwest, high pressure
has settled in over the region, setting up continued warmer than
normal conditions that were observed to finish out this past work
week. Lower elevation high temperatures for this weekend and into
the start of next week will range in the lower to middle 90s, a
good 10-15 degrees above-normal for the middle of March.
Forecasted temperatures during this stretch have actually
decreased a few degrees from where they were about 24 hours ago. A
glancing trough will dive across the Eastern Rockies, tamping
down the ridge enough to keep temps flat to even a few degrees
cooler compared observations on Friday.

The above-mentioned trough will not scrape by without impacting more
than just temperatures. The tightening of the regional pressure
gradient, especially on Sunday, will lead to breezy to locally windy
conditions. The strongest gusts look to be focused around the Lower
Colorado River Valley where readings 25-30 mph appear likely.
Locally higher gusts greater than 35 mph cannot be ruled but should
be confined to higher ridge top areas and locations within the river
valley where channeling can occur. Even as the shortwave pushes
further east, the gradient will remain strong enough to create some
residual breeziness for these areas Monday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
The area of high pressure suppressed and shoved westward by the
transient disturbance will rebound and eventually migrate off the
Eastern Pacific by Tuesday. As it moves, regional H5 heights will
rise markedly, reaching near 588-590dm. However, global
deterministic guidance takes things further showing heights aloft
peaking near 594-596dm by Thursday. For reference, sounding
climatology data for Las Vegas, Flagstaff, and Tucson all show
record H5 heights for March are around 590dm and April 591dm,
593dm, and 592dm respectively. With that being said, this high
will be near to slightly stronger than any ridge this region has
seen in recorded history, not only for March, but for April as
well.

This anomalously strong high will translate to record temperatures,
not just at the surface, but throughout much of the atmosphere as
well. H7-H5 temperatures will reach all-time records for this time
of year by Tuesday, with H8 readings joining the fray by
Wednesday. These climatological records will not last one day
either as forecasts show these abnormal values extending through
the end of the work week and even into next weekend. At the
surface, lower desert highs by Tuesday will be in the upper 90s
to near 100 degrees with values climbing to around 105 degrees for
much of the lower deserts by Thursday. If these temperatures are
realized, those readings would be 25 to almost 30 degrees above
normal.

It should not come as much of a surprise that numerous records are
likely to be broken at some point next week with Tuesday likely
being the first day when all-time daily MaxTs begin to fall.
However, with the lack of movement from the ridge overhead,
consecutive days with new record temperatures appear likely. What is
also very unusual about how hot this pattern will be is how much
high temperatures could potentially best previous records. For
instance, the current forecasted high temperature for Phoenix for
Friday is 106 degrees. While it is typical to see records beaten
by a few degrees at most, this forecast high may beat Fridays
record of 96 by 10 degrees. Monthly records are also at risk of
falling during this upcoming heat wave. The all-time March records
for Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro are 100, 102, and 101 degrees
respectively. All of those values could be tied or eclipsed as
early as Wednesday.

The record setting potential doesn`t end there. The earliest 100
degree day recorded in Phoenix is March 26, which was observed back
in 1988, and is actually the only other time since records began
when triple digits were achieved in the month of March for the city.
It appears that a new earliest instance of 100 degree will be set as
it is a matter of when, not if, it will happen. Current forecasts
suggest that will occur on Wednesday the 18th, 8 days ahead of the
previous record. Fortunately, the earliest triple digit readings for
Yuma and El Centro are March 12th and 15th respectively, so those
records are very much safe for at least another year (and hopefully
much longer). Nonetheless, the average first 100 degree readings for
these locations is late April, so we will be almost a month and half
ahead of schedule.

Moderate HeatRisk will develop in response to the upcoming abnormal
heat, with even some localized areas of Major HeatRisk not out of
the question. Therefore, an Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for
the Lower Colorado River Valley and westward starting Wednesday,
which will expand to include much of Southern Arizona by Thursday.
&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0515Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No weather concerns will exist through Saturday night under periods
of high cirrus decks. Trends in wind speeds and timing of
directional shifts will be similar to the past 24 hours, though
speeds Saturday afternoon in the Phoenix metro should be somewhat
stronger than the past few days with modest gusts. Extended periods
of light and variable winds will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will result in temperatures 10-15 degrees above
normal through this weekend before increasing to 25-30 degrees
above normal by the middle portion of next week. Abnormally hot
and very dry conditions will translate to MinRH near or just below
10% with poor overnight recovery as MaxRHs will only be expected
to to run near 20-40%. Increasing breeziness will be observed
through this weekend, mainly over the Arizona high terrain and the
Lower Colorado River Valley, with the strongest gusts (25-35 mph)
focused over the latter area. The breezy conditions, combined with
low RH values will result in elevated to isolated areas of
critical fire weather conditions. However, with the limited scope
of enhanced winds, no fire weather products are needed at this
time.

&&

CLIMATE...

Daily record highs through next weekend:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/14     95 in 2013     96 in 2017     97 in 2017
3/15     92 in 2013     98 in 1934    100 in 1934
3/16     99 in 2007     99 in 2007    100 in 2007
3/17     99 in 2007    101 in 2007    101 in 2007
3/18     95 in 2017     96 in 2017     95 in 2007
3/19     96 in 2017     98 in 2017     96 in 2017
3/20     96 in 2017     99 in 2004     98 in 2004
3/21     97 in 2004    102 in 2004    100 in 2004
3/22     94 in 1990     98 in 2004     96 in 2004

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Sunday evening
     for AZZ530.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Thursday morning through Sunday evening
     for AZZ531>544-546-548>551-553>555-559.

CA...Extreme Heat Watch from Wednesday morning through Sunday evening
     for CAZ561>570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...RW
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RW
CLIMATE...18/Kuhlman