El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

771
FXUS65 KPSR 211949
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1249 PM MST Tue Apr 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Departing high pressure will keep temperatures across the region
  around 4 to 8 degrees above daily normals today.

- A weather system will traverse the Great Basin, resulting in
  gusty winds across portions Southeast California and the Lower
  Colorado River Basin this afternoon.

- Temperatures will cool back to near normal in the wake of the
  passing weather system with continued breezy conditions for the
  remainder of the week and into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Current objective analysis reveals the Desert Southwest in a
transition zone as departing high pressure flanks us to the east
and an approaching closed low inches closer to the Pacific Coast.
Our forecast areas will find itself influenced by each of these
weather regimes this afternoon as the ridge helps keeps
temperatures relatively elevated while the western disturbance
generates breezy to locally windy conditions. Lower desert highs
will remain 4-8 degrees or so above-normal for this time of year,
which translates to a continuation of afternoon highs in the 90s
for the lower deserts. As the latter feature pushes eastward, our
regional pressure gradient will tighten up, which will, as
mentioned above, usher in the return of enhanced winds for parts
of the region, especially out in SE California and the Lower
Colorado River Valley. Wind Advisories have been posted for
Western Joshua Tree NP and SW corner of Imperial County due to
the high confidence of winds exceeding 40 mph. Advisory level
gusts will be possible over other parts of SE California, but
should be confined to higher ridge top areas. Peak gusts for lower
elevation areas should generally range around 30-35 mph. These
strong winds will also up the potential for areas of
blowing/lofted dust which could result in hazardous travel along
stretches of I-8 and I-10. Elsewhere, breezy conditions will
exist, but readings should be closer to 20-25 mph.

The previously mentioned low will eventually work its way onshore
early Wednesday, weakening as it does and transitioning to an open
wave trough. The base of the disturbance will pass well to our
north, but will have at least some influence on regional conditions
for at least one more day. One noticeable change from the day prior
will be the relatively cooler temperatures as highs for lower
desert areas will be mostly in the middle to upper 80s, much
closer to normal for mid to late April. This system will also
provide one more round of breezy conditions for parts of the
region, but this time the focus shifts more towards the high
terrain of eastern Arizona, where gusts will peak around 25 mph,
with gusts closer to 30 mph for the highest ridgetops. The typical
wind prone areas of SE California will see some residual gusts as
well, but they will not be nearly as strong as today.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble members and deterministic guidance continues to indicate
quasi-zonal flow returning to the Desert Southwest Thursday and
Friday which will result in temperatures remaining near to
slightly above normal. A compressed 500 mb hght gradient will
prevail over the Desert Southwest resulting in continued breezy to
locally windy conditions through the end of this week with
afternoon gusts reaching 20-30 mph. A progressive pattern will
continue into this weekend as a series of mostly dry weather
systems passes north of the region. The strongest shortwave looks
to arrive on Sunday which will cool temperatures to around 3 to 5
degrees below normal across the region. Both the mean of the GEFS
and EPS show negative hght anomalies persisting over the Desert
Southwest well into next week which will keep temperatures at
least near normal to slightly below normal to finish off the month.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1734Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No major aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period.
mostly diurnal trends with a brief period of southerly winds
before the anticipated westerly shift for the afternoon hours.
Gusty winds this afternoon will be common with gusts between 20-25
kts, relaxing by late this evening where the overnight wind
speeds will be aob 10kts. A late shift to easterly is expected by
sunrise tomorrow. Skies will be mostly clear with the exception
of FEW passing high clouds through out the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong, gusty winds late this afternoon/evening will be the
primary weather concern as thicker high cirrus decks gradually
clear through out the period. Confidence remains high that
westerly winds at KIPL will remain in place while
southerly/southwesterly winds will be preferred at KBLH. Gusts
20-25kt will materialize this afternoon with gusts likely
strengthening above 30kt at KIPL during the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A progressive pattern with multiple dry weather systems passing
north of the region will result in breezy conditions and periods
of elevated fire weather throughout this week. Relative humidity
is not expected to fluctuate much, bottoming out around 8-15%
each afternoon. Overnight recoveries will remain poor to fair over
the next several nights. The strongest winds will reside in SE
California this afternoon and evening where gusts up to 25-35 mph
(locally higher) will be possible. These stronger winds coupled
with very dry conditions (RH as low as 10%) will result in a brief
period of near critical fire weather conditions this afternoon.
Widespread breezy conditions with gusts around 20-30 mph will
continue each afternoon through the remainder of this week,
resulting in persistent elevated fire weather.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ560.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM..RW
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno