El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

401
FXUS65 KPSR 312346
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
446 PM MST Sat Jan 31 2026

.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions, well above normal temperatures, and occasional
  passing high clouds are expected through the next 7 days.

- Periods of breezy winds will develop across the area with the
  most widespread breeziness later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current midlevel water vapor imagery and objective analysis show
a continuation of the large scale pattern, characterized by East
Pacific troughing, downstream ridging over the western US, and
longwave troughing further downstream over much of the Eastern
CONUS. Overall, this hemispheric pattern looks to persist through
the next week. However, ensembles show changes in the North
Pacific Jet that will begin to perturb the downstream split jet
regime this upcoming work week, sending a few shortwave
disturbances over/near the region that will bring periods of
mostly high clouds. Specifically, the North Pacific Jet has begun
to show signs of retreating into the Western Pacific, eventually
entering a more retracted phase during the upcoming work week.

Most relevant to the local weather for the remainder of this
weekend is the midlevel anticyclone centered over SoCal early this
afternoon and the associated positive height anomalies, allowing
for well above normal temperatures. Ensembles are in excellent
agreement that the anticyclone will slide eastward across the area
Sunday, though mean H5 heights are shown peaking today, with
values around 584 dam. Widespread highs in the upper 70s to near
80F will be common this afternoon across the lower deserts.
Afternoon highs are likely to warm by another few degrees Sunday,
potentially challenging the record high in Phoenix for the date
(see Climate section.) Meanwhile, surface high pressure over the
Southern Plains will allow for continued easterly breeziness over
portions of Southern AZ into Sunday, particularly over the higher
terrain and ridgetops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY/...
Model guidance continues to trend warmer with less chances for
any weather systems impacting the Desert Southwest next week. The
upper level ridge this weekend will weaken and push to the east by
Monday with very broad upper level troughing briefly moving in
from the southwest. This will help to lower heights slightly and
in turn bring daytime highs back down into the upper 70s for the
lower deserts on Monday. Guidance also shows a slug of upper level
moisture moving across the region Sunday night through Monday
night bringing a decent amount of mostly thin high clouds.

By Tuesday, an even stronger upper level ridge is expected to
nudge northeastward into the Western U.S., while a piece of
lingering upper level energy to our south and southwest forms a
cut-off low by Wednesday morning. As a result, another Rex block
will take shape Wednesday into Thursday with the center of the
ridge strengthening further and slowly drifting from northern
California through Nevada. The position and the strength of the
ridge will result in another round of downslope warming and drying
for much of our region. The latest NBM forecast highs for
Tuesday-Thursday are once again warmer than yesterday`s runs with
readings between 78-82 degrees Tuesday, 80-84 degrees Wednesday,
before dropping back to 77-81 degrees starting Thursday.

Ensembles show good consensus with the ridge now dominating
through at least midweek before allowing the blocking pattern to
somewhat break down Friday into next Saturday. The cut-off low
that forms early in the week should eventually come back into or
near our region by Friday, but it is heavily favored to be an open
wave by that point with not enough energy or moisture to bring
any rain chances. After the midweek blocking pattern breaks down,
ensembles do start to show potential for another (weaker) Rex
block and cut-off low for next weekend. Initial forecast thinking
and trends over the past few model runs show this next
disturbance is also likely to bypass our region to the south.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2345Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. Winds will follow similar trends from
24 hours ago with a brief W-NW shift anticipated this evening,
followed by a return of easterly flow late tonight. Easterly winds
will become elevated again late Sunday morning with a few gusts
into the teens possible at KIWA and KPHX. Winds should remain
easterly through Sunday evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under generally clear skies can be
expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will fluctuate between
westerly and northerly at both SE California terminals tonight and
again Sunday afternoon. Speeds should remain aob 7 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather conditions will prevail through next week, with MinRH
values in the 10-20% range most afternoons. There will be a
subtle moisture increase late this weekend into Monday, but MinRH
values only increase to 20-25% at best. Overnight recoveries will
remain poor to fair with humidities mostly between 30-55%. Gusty
easterly winds will mainly affect ridgetop areas over the eastern
districts this weekend with light winds on Monday. The weather
pattern will again support breezy daytime conditions mid to late
next week. Temperatures will warm further this weekend with lower
desert highs likely topping 80 degrees in many locations.

&&

.CLIMATE...Phoenix, AZ Daily Record High Temperatures.

2/1  83 (2003)
2/2  82 (2025)
2/3  86 (2025)
2/4  86 (2025)
2/5  87 (1963)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whittock
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Benedict/Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict