El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

825
FXUS65 KPSR 311745
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1045 AM MST Tue Mar 31 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will continue to cool through Wednesday, dropping to
within a few degrees of normal and mostly stay steady through
Friday.

- Isolated showers will be possible through Wednesday, primarily
focused over higher terrain of south-central Arizona.

- Temperatures will warm again over the weekend into next week
reaching low to mid nineties for highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
The weather pattern has become more zonal over the past couple of
days with periods of increased moisture allowing for some mostly
isolated showers and thunderstorms. However, drier air in the mid
levels spreading through much of the area today and more limited
instability due to more high clouds will limit rain chances with any
shower activity likely confined to higher terrain areas north and
east of Phoenix. The increased clouds will also keep temperatures
from reaching much past 90 degrees across the lower deserts.

By tonight, a shortwave trough will be entering the region from the
west bringing a modest cold front with it and some weak upper level
forcing. However, just like today moisture will be quite limited
with the only added moisture from the system being focused along and
just ahead of the cold front. Guidance seems to still be struggling
with the potential rain chances tonight and early Wednesday with
most suggesting some sort of a broken line of light showers moving
through the area. Given that low level mixing ratios will at most be
6 g/kg, most areas are not expected to receive any measurable
rainfall. The best potential for rainfall should exist over the high
terrain north and northeast of Phoenix with most of the lower
deserts only seeing some sprinkles to maybe 0.01". Based on the
timing, the best chance for any light rain within the Phoenix area
looks to be between 3-7am Wednesday. The first part of Wednesday
will also be quite cloudy, but clearing behind the front later in
the morning will result in mostly sunny skies during the afternoon
hours. Cooler air will usher into the area behind the cold front
early Wednesday keeping daytime highs mostly in the mid 80s for the
lower deserts. Winds will also become quite breezy to even locally
windy Wednesday afternoon with gusts reaching as high as 30-35 mph
across portions of southeast California.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Once the shortwave trough exits our region later Wednesday into
Thursday, the region will fall under dry northwesterly flow leading
to a gradual decrease in moisture across the region for the rest of
the week and mostly clear skies. A Pacific trough passing well to
our north on Thursday and Friday will help to keep the more mild
temperatures in place as highs are expected to stay mostly in the
mid to upper 80s. After this trough pushes into the Central Plains
later Friday, upper level ridging building off the West Coast will
start to filter into the Western U.S, moving fully over our region
by Sunday. This next ridge will at least not be nearly as strong as
what we have experienced over the past two weeks, but it will at
least push daytime highs back above 90 degrees by Sunday. The latest
NBM shows dry 90+ degree weather in place through at least the first
half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1745Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Periods of gusty winds and lowering cigs will be the main weather
issues through Wednesday afternoon. Confidence is very good that
east winds will become W/SW early afternoon with gusts 20-25kt
mid/late afternoon through the evening. Gusts may abate mid/late
evening, but the general trend is towards occasional gusts
persisting and directions veering to more NW into the overnight.
Thick mid/high cigs will steadily lower overnight and could briefly
touch 6K ft AGL around sunrise with virga/light SHRA, however odds
are too low to include in this TAF package. A brief period of east
winds should return Wednesday mid morning with clearing skies just
ahead of fropa.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Periods of gusty winds will be the primary weather issue through
Wednesday afternoon as thick mid/high cigs only slowly clear late in
the period. Confidence is good that winds will become W/SW early
this afternoon, then obtain 20-25kt gusts by mid/late afternoon.
Winds should begin to decouple overnight and lose gustiness, however
timing of this evolution is more uncertain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Modest moisture levels through Wednesday will continue to bring
chances for isolated showers focused mostly over the AZ high
terrain. Humidities will remain slightly elevated with MinRHs
between 15-25%. Afternoon wind speeds will increase slightly today
into Wednesday with gusts 20-25 mph becoming common. Rain chances
will completely come to an by Thursday as gradual drying and warming
occurs. Daytime breeziness will also continue through Friday with
fire weather conditions worsening as MinRHs drop to below 15%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman