El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

278
FXUS65 KPSR 230725
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1225 AM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure over the Desert Southwest will lead to well-above
  normal temperatures this week, with afternoon highs across the
  lower deserts pushing into the upper 80s to lower 90s mid and
  late week.

- Dry, tranquil weather with zero rain chances are expected
  through all week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Strong upper level ridging quickly moved into the region over the
weekend pushing H5 heights to between 582-584dm, or into the 97th
percentile of climatology. As a result, warming aloft has been
swift with decent mixing on Sunday pushing daytime highs to around
80 degrees. The ridge is forecast to stay put and maintain its
strength, likely for the rest of the week. H8 temperatures will
warm further today into Tuesday before briefly stabilizing
through mid-week. Temperatures today are expected to top out in
the lower 80s to around 85 degrees across the lower deserts under
sunny skies.

As the warming aloft continues to mix more into the boundary
layer, daytime highs are likely to reach closer to the 90 degree
mark across the southeastern California lower deserts on Tuesday
and more into the mid 80s across the south-central Arizona lower
deserts. A strong AR reaching northern California on Tuesday
should result in some higher clouds spilling into the ridge and
into the Desert Southwest starting Tuesday. At this point, these
high clouds do not look to really hinder temperatures, at least on
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little will change with the weather pattern during the latter
half of the week and through the weekend, but temperatures are
forecast to warm further and likely reach or top 90 degrees for a
good portion of the lower deserts by the weekend. NBM forecast
highs are shown rising to near 90 degrees in the Phoenix area by
Thursday with most of the southeast California and southwest lower
deserts flirting with the lower 90s. Guidance indicates H8
temperatures warming even further by the weekend, potentially
reaching near record territory for this time of year for southwest
portions of the Desert Southwest. Barring any thicker high clouds,
which is not very likely, daytime highs should top 90 degrees
across a majority of the lower deserts by Saturday. Daily record
highs will be in jeopardy for at least Phoenix by Thursday as
well as the all-time warmest day in the month of February, which
is 92 degrees. The NBM shows a 50-60% probability of reaching 93
degrees or warmer in Phoenix on any day from Friday-Sunday.

Widespread Minor HeatRisk will develop by Wednesday, even
affecting some higher terrain areas late week and through the
weekend. Overnight lows in the 60-65 degree range will also become
fairly common later this week. Although model uncertainty
increases into next week, the ridge is favored to begin to break
down and/or shift more to our southeast at some point early next
week. This should start to bring temperatures down some, but only
back into the 80s. There will be no chances for precipitation for
our area through at least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0525Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies initially
with FEW-SCT high clouds arriving tomorrow afternoon. Winds return
to their diurnal trends with a late switch to westerly tomorrow
(23-01Z). Wind speeds will be light, aob 7 kt, with some periods
of light and variable winds.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns under mostly clear skies initially
with FEW-SCT high clouds arriving tomorrow morning. Winds will
generally be out of the west to northwest with speeds generally
aob 7 kt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will persist each day, with temperatures
continuing to warm throughout the entire week. Afternoon high
temperatures will warm a few degrees each day reaching the lower
90s late week for much of the lower deserts. MinRH values will
be around 10-20% and overnight recoveries will be around 35-50%
each day. Winds will overall be light, but with some occasional
breeziness and gusts to around 20 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily High Temperature Records.

       Phoenix      Yuma      El Centro
      ---------   ---------   ---------
2/25  92 (1921)   95 (1986)   94 (1986)
2/26  91 (1986)   96 (1986)   95 (1986)
2/27  92 (1986)   95 (1986)   96 (1986)
2/28  89 (1986)   97 (1986)   92 (1986)
3/1   89 (2016)   93 (1986)   91 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict