El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

184
FXUS65 KPSR 232053
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
153 PM MST Mon Feb 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably strong high pressure over the Desert Southwest will
  lead to well-above normal temperatures this week, with afternoon
  highs across the lower deserts pushing into the upper 80s to
  lower 90s by mid-week.

- Daily record highs and warm lows may be tied or broken in
  Phoenix, Yuma, and El Centro from Thursday through Monday.

- Dry, tranquil weather with zero rain chances are expected
  through this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper-lvl pattern consists of a broad ridge of high pressure
which now encompasses the entire western half of the CONUS. 500 mb
hghts have risen to between 584-586 dam over our forecast area, or
near the 98th percentile of climatology for late February. Despite a
thin layer of high cirrus clouds currently progressing through the
region, temperatures have quickly warmed into the upper 70s and
lower 80s and are expected to top out in the mid 80s across the
deserts of SE California, SW Arizona, and SC Arizona. The relatively
strong sfc pressure gradient which brought breezy conditions to the
foothills and higher terrain yesterday has finally relaxed and wind
speeds will be much lighter through the rest of today and overnight.
Dry and tranquil conditions will continue into tonight with
temperatures settling into the low to mid 50s across the lower
deserts and a few locations dipping into the mid to upper 40s.

The only sensible change in weather conditions on tuesday will be a
noticeable increase in mid-to-high lvl clouds streaming into the
region ahead of a strong AR event in N California and the PacNW.
These clouds will do little to moderate temperatures however.
Continued warming aloft and increase in mid-lvl hghts/thickness will
cause highs to tick up by a couple more degrees on Tuesday. Highs
Tuesday afternoon will close in on the 90 degree mark across the
Imperial Valley of SE California and more solidly into the mid 80s
across the SC Arizona lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Little will change with the weather pattern during the latter
half of the week and through the weekend, but temperatures are
forecast to warm further and likely reach or top 90 degrees for a
good portion of the lower deserts by the weekend. NBM forecast
highs are shown rising to near 90 degrees in the Phoenix area by
Thursday with most of the southeast California and southwest lower
deserts flirting with the lower 90s. Guidance indicates H8
temperatures warming even further by the weekend, potentially
reaching near record territory for this time of year for southwest
portions of the Desert Southwest. Barring any thicker high clouds,
which is not very likely, daytime highs should top 90 degrees
across a majority of the lower deserts by Saturday. Daily record
highs will be in jeopardy for at least Phoenix by Thursday as
well as the all-time warmest day in the month of February, which
is 92 degrees. The NBM shows a 50-60% probability of reaching 93
degrees or warmer in Phoenix on any day from Friday-Sunday.

Widespread Minor HeatRisk will develop by Wednesday, even
affecting some higher terrain areas late week and through the
weekend. Overnight lows in the 60-65 degree range will also become
fairly common later this week. Although model uncertainty
increases into next week, the ridge is favored to begin to break
down and/or shift more to our southeast at some point early next
week. This should start to bring temperatures down some, but only
back into the 80s. There will be no chances for precipitation for
our area through at least next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period. Winds
will follow familiar diurnal trends with slightly later than usual
turn to the W this afternoon/evening. FEW-SCT high cirrus will be
present over the region through Tuesday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours under
FEW-SCT high cirrus clouds. Winds will be favored generally out
of the W/NW at each terminals with speeds aob 7 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Warm and dry conditions will prevail with temperatures pushing well
above normal through the rest of this week. Afternoon highs will
warm by a few degrees each day, reaching the lower 90s late week for
much of the lower deserts. MinRH values will range from 10-20% and
overnight recoveries improving to only 35-50% each day. Winds will
overall be light and follow diurnal tendencies, with some
occasional upslope breeziness in the afternoon and early evening.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily High Temperature Records.

       Phoenix      Yuma      El Centro
      ---------   ---------   ---------
2/25  92 (1921)   95 (1986)   94 (1986)
2/26  91 (1986)   96 (1986)   95 (1986)
2/27  92 (1986)   95 (1986)   96 (1986)
2/28  89 (1986)   97 (1986)   92 (1986)
3/1   89 (2016)   93 (1986)   91 (2016)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno
CLIMATE...Benedict