El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

656
FXUS65 KPSR 291054
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
354 AM MST Mon Jun 29 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy to locally windy conditions paired with very dry
  conditions and very dry fuels will lead to elevated fire
  weather conditions, particularly across the AZ higher terrain.

- Below normal temperatures will continue through the majority of
  the workweek.

- More tranquil weather conditions and a slow warming trend will
  arrive during the latter half of this week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A deep Pacific trough has established itself over western CONUS,
as seen on upper-level water vapor satellite imagery early this
morning. Multiple pieces of vorticity can be seen within this
Pacific trough, with a closed low centered in northern Montana,
with multiple shortwave troughs moving around this closed low.
Additionally another shortwave trough is centered over northern CA
early this morning, which will come into play for our area a
little bit later this week. With the Pacific trough now
established over our area and the pressure gradient slightly more
relaxed wind speeds will stabilize more so today and tomorrow
with breezy to locally windy conditions expected across the
region, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Windy
conditions are again expected across the far SW corner of Imperial
County with southwesterly wind speeds of 20-30 mph and gusts
upwards of 45-55 mph, with the highest winds expected during the
evening and overnight hours. Therefor, a Wind Advisory is in
effect from 5pm PDT tonight through 8am PDT Tuesday morning for
the SW corner of Imperial County. Additionally, wind gusts of
25-35 mph, with localized higher gusts possible, are expected
across the higher terrain to the east of Phoenix during the
afternoon and evening hours today and tomorrow. These breezy to
windy conditions paired with the very dry conditions (minRH of 6-
15%) and very dry fuels will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions potentially causing easier fire starts and the
potential of uncontrollable spread of new or existing fires.

With the Pacific trough established over our region H5 heights are
anomalously low for this time of the year and are in between the
3rd and 10th percentiles of climatology. H5 heights early this
morning are around 584 dm and are forecasted to lower even more
over the next couple of days. As the aforementioned shortwave
trough over northern CA pushes southeastward into our area, H5
heights are expected to drop to around 579-583 dm Tuesday and
Wednesday. As a result the below normal temperatures will continue
across the region and in fact drop even more on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to be in the
95-103 degree range today across the lower deserts and in the
90-100 degree range across the higher terrain. Tuesday and
Wednesday will see the "coolest" temperatures of the week with
afternoon high temperatures forecasted to be in the 90-101 degree
range across the lower deserts and in the 88-98 degree range
across the higher terrain areas. These forecasted high
temperatures are around 4-10 degrees below normal for this time of
year. Morning lows will also be well below normal for this time
of year and are forecasted to be in the 60s and 70s across the
region. These morning lows are forecasted to be around 7 to 13
degrees below normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensemble model guidance remains in good agreement on the overall
synoptic pattern starting to shift by the latter half of this week.
They show high pressure slowly starting to push back into the Desert
Southwest from the east and the Pacific trough lifting
north/northeastward. As a result, H5 heights aloft will start to
increase leading to a gradual warming trend. The latest NBM has
temperatures returning to near to slightly below normal by the end
of the workweek. The high pressure will continue to push into our
region next weekend with H5 heights aloft continuing to rise. The
NBM has afternoon high temperatures going back above normal by
the end of the weekend, with highs in the 105-110 degree range.

With high pressure slowly building back into our region more
tranquil weather conditions are expected with only some minor
afternoon breezy conditions expected with the highest winds across
the Lower CO River Valley and the higher terrain north and east of
Phoenix. Very dry conditions will also remain in place and thus
there will be no rainfall chances through this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1045Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will
follow typical diurnal tendencies with a period of southerly
before the afternoon westerly shift. Gusts are still expected this
afternoon, however lighter than the past several days, with peak
gusts near 20 kts at all terminals (KIWA slightly higher ~22-23
kts). Otherwise, skies will remain clear throughout the TAF
period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will be
fairly relaxed through the morning and afternoon before increasing
by ~00Z tonight. That being said, KIPL can expect gusts between
20-25 kts, and KBLH gusts between 15-20 kts. KIPL will maintain a
W-NW component throughout the TAF period, while KBLH will be VRB
through the morning, then teetering between SW and SE for the
remainder of the TAF period, although, favoring the SW. Skies will
remain clear throughout the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire danger will continue through Tuesday due to low
humidity, very warm temperatures, breezy southwest winds during
the afternoons/early evenings, and very receptive dry fuels.
Afternoon minimum humidities between 6-15% through Tuesday will
drop to a 5-10% range beginning Wednesday. Poor to fair overnight
recoveries between 25-45% through Wednesday night will decrease
into a 15-30% range Thursday night. Wind gusts of 20-35 mph and
locally stronger are expected the next couple of afternoons and
evenings. These windy and very dry conditions will combine with
the very dry fuels to create a risk of extreme fire behavior.
Winds will gradually start to diminish throughout the workweek.
Temperatures will remain below normal through the majority of the
upcoming workweek, with lower desert highs around 100F through
midweek.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Tuesday for
     CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Whittock/Berislavich