El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

901
FXUS65 KPSR 292015
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
115 PM MST Wed Oct 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail through at least
early next week with temperatures remaining above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Early afternoon objective analysis indicates quasi-stationary high
amplitude ridging covering much of the western Conus as a downstream
blocking regime strengthens. This strong anti-cyclonic influence
over the intermountain west has forced pronounced sfc pressure rises
resulting in an enhanced pressure gradient over the forecast area,
further tightened by nocturnal thermal differences. However,
shortwave energy cresting the western Conus ridge today will act to
dampen the overall magnitude, and thereby lessen the tendency
towards pressure rises and a gusty wind threat. Correspondingly, H5
heights currently hovering around 588dm will retreat closer to a 582-
585dm range in the next 24 hours forcing subtle cooling the next few
days. With very narrow guidance spread, confidence is excellent that
temperatures will still remain 3F-6F above the daily normals under
clear skies and light winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Throughout the day Saturday, high pressure will start to build back
into the Desert SW, and remain in place over the region through the
first half of next week. With this high pressure, H5 heights will
rise back into a 588-591 dm range, and in turn will result in
temperatures once again warming a couple degrees. Afternoon high
temperatures are forecasted to be in the upper 80s to low 90s across
the lower deserts and in the low to mid 80s across the higher
terrain. These temperatures are still around 5-8 degrees above the
daily normals for the beginning of November, but remain 4-7 degrees
below the daily records. With high pressure building back in, dry
and tranquil weather conditions will continue through at least the
middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The primary aviation concern during the TAF period will be gusty
east winds into early this afternoon under clear skies. Winds will
maintain an easterly component through Thursday morning, with gusts
between 15-25 kts (on the higher side of that range at KPHX) until
20-21Z today. Winds will gradually relax and return to their typical
drainage directions this evening. A temporary increase in E/SE winds
will once again be possible Thursday morning a few hours after
sunrise, but lighter than that of today.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are anticipated through Thursday
morning under clear skies. Winds will remain under 10 kts, with
directions favoring north through this afternoon and generally
backing out of the NW/W this evening. Winds will become variable to
nearly calm by Thursday morning at both terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will fluctuate a few degrees over the next 7 days, but
remain around 5-8 degrees above normal for this time of year. MinRHs
will be around 10-15% for the lower deserts to around 20% for the
higher terrain areas through the week, with good overnight recovery.
Wind gusts of 20-35 mph are expected across the Lower Colorado River
Valley, SW AZ, and south-central AZ this morning. The higher terrain
in the eastern district will see gusts up to 45 mph, with the
highest ridgetops seeing gusts up near 50 mph possible. Winds will
then taper off through Wednesday afternoon and evening. With winds
returning to their typical diurnal tendencies and minimal afternoon
gustiness on Thursday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich