El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

090
FXUS65 KPSR 122331
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
431 PM MST Mon Jan 12 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions will prevail through the week as temperatures
  rise into an above normal range.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Large scale, high amplitude Rex blocking continues to dominate the
East Pacific and western Conus with an intensifying anti-cyclone
centered over northern California while weaker troughing resides
across northern Mexico. This pattern will maintain strong sfc high
pressure over the Great Basin with heightened northeast winds across
much of the forecast area, however the strongest gradient and
thermal influence has shifted into southern California resulting in
a weak Santa Ana event west of the forecast area. Over the next 48
hours, H5 heights in a 576-579dm range will rise closer to a 580-
583dm range forcing a warming trend with temperatures 6F-10F above
normal, yet still likely a few degrees short of daily records.

&&

.LONG TERM /Thursday through Sunday/...
Ensemble members are in good agreement that some form of the western
Conus blocking pattern (whether it be a Rex or omega block) will
hold through the weekend. During this time frame, strong high
pressure will be maintained with temperatures hovering above normal
throughout the week. The warmest temperatures are forecasted towards
the end of the week, coinciding with the high pressure near its
climatological max. Temperatures will be 7-10 degrees above mid of
January normals. Over the weekend, the high pressure across the
region may retrograde slightly into the NW coastline or northeast
Pacific, however ridging will still be present with only a few
degrees of potential cooling due to the relaxation of H5 heights.
Dry conditions will also continue through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2331Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation weather risks through Tuesday. E`rly wind gusts
are subsiding this evening and winds through the rest of the TAF
period will be notably lighter. East winds will still prevail for
much of Tuesday, with modest confidence of a late westerly wind
shift developing. Skies will clear tonight and remain clear
through Tuesday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather risks through Tuesday with near persistence
wind conditions. Both terminals will continue to favor a N/NW`rly
component during the late-morning and afternoon hours before
backing to westerly overnight and becoming calm at times. High
clouds will clear tonight and skies will remain clear through
Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and will
gradually warm through the workweek. Temperatures will go well above
normal by the middle of this coming week. MinRH values of 15-30%
and overnight recoveries of 40-70% will continue through this
coming week. Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue
today. The highest gusts will be across the eastern districts,
especially ridgetops, where gusts in excess of 40 mph are likely
through the early afternoon. Wind speeds will return to more
seasonable levels this evening and continue into next week. Winds
will maintain a northeasterly to easterly prevailing direction
today and possibly into early next week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Ryan/18
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Berislavich