El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

465
FXUS65 KPSR 012010
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
110 PM MST Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures will persist through Friday
with gradual drying across the region.

- Temperatures will warm again by early next week with readings
returning to around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
A vigorous, compact shortwave was propagating across the four
corners early this afternoon dragging a weakening cold front through
the region. Both ascent mechanisms and a deep moisture pool have
already exited the forecast area, however lingering cyclonic flow
with troughing still evident over the Great Basin will prevent
stronger subsidence and drying from entering the region for the next
48 hours. While midlevel height falls associated with this shortwave
haven`t been particularly robust, they have been sufficient to
allow temperatures to retreat somewhat closer to the seasonal normal
(albeit, still remaining several degrees above normal). Models are
in very good agreement that H5 heights will generally hover in a 570-
576dm range through Friday, and narrow numerical guidance spread
yields excellent forecast confidence of nearly steady temperatures
3F-6F above normal. Otherwise, some enhanced gusty sundowner winds
are likely in parts of SE California this evening, though height
falls, fropa, and positioning of the jet core are mistimed and
misaligned for more intense speeds and impacts. At this time,
advisory level wind speeds appear too temporally and spatially
limited to justify any headlines.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
A quiet weather pattern is expected through the weekend and at least
the first part of next week. A modest ridge will move into the
region over the weekend quickly boosting temperatures as highs top
out around 90 degrees Saturday and into the low to mid 90s on
Sunday. This ridge will somewhat stick around into early next week,
but it will likely be undercut by a very weak shortwave on Monday
before another Pacific trough potentially moves into the Western
U.S. on Wednesday. Dry conditions are likely to prevail the entire
time with the only chances (5-10%) for any showers across the far
eastern Arizona high terrain. NBM forecast temperatures look quite
stable for the first half of next week with highs hovering around 95
degrees, or roughly 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1705Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF
period. Westerly winds can be expected through this evening with
occasional afternoon/early evening gusts reaching 20-25 kts. Speeds
will subside under 10 kts later this evening. Winds will then shift
out of the east during the overnight period. FEW-SCT cloud decks aoa
8 kft will prevail into this afternoon before skies become clear by
this evening.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation weather concern will be some gusty westerly winds
through this evening. At KIPL, westerly winds will persist
throughout the period with gusts this afternoon peaking at 20-25
kts, with the potential of even higher gusts near 30 kts for a
period early this evening. Speeds will gradually subside during the
overnight period. At KBLH, winds will generally fluctuate between
the south to southwest with some afternoon gusts near 20 kts, before
subsiding by this evening. Mostly clear skies will persist through
this evening before some high cirrus cloud decks move in during the
overnight period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak cold front pushing through the area this morning will bring
scattered light showers with little measurable rainfall. Breezy
westerly winds will also affect the area today with gusts as high as
25-35 mph with the frontal passage and again this afternoon across
southeast California and the Arizona high terrain. MinRHs today will
mostly be between 20-30% before drier air gradually moves in
lowering MinRHs to 15-25% Thursday and 10-15% starting Friday.
Afternoon breezy conditions will be possible on both Thursday and
Friday focused more across the western districts. Lighter winds,
temperatures rising to well above normal, and low humidities are
then anticipated for the weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman