El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

287
FXUS65 KPSR 041105
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
405 AM MST Sun Jan 4 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fairly quiet weather conditions with above normal temperatures
will prevail early this week.

- An unsettled weather pattern may arrive during the middle of the
week with slightly increased precipitation chances and cooler
temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Monday/...
Deep East Pacific troughing advancing towards the West Coast was
displacing longwave ridging into the plains and imparting an
increased cyclonic flow over the SW Conus. This has resulted in
abundant high cloud cover tapped from the subtropics and maintenance
of seasonally high H5 heights. The majority of shortwave energy has
lifted north of the region, though a low amplitude, sheared wave
ejecting from the trough base will pull a decaying front inland
early Monday morning. Moisture will almost entirely be trapped on
the windward side of the coastal range, and only a few decaying
showers surviving into SE California, as well as marginal orographic
ascent below a midtropospheric inversion into south-central Arizona
would be expected. Most guidance suggests little to no accumulations
from any isolated showers while temperatures hover a few degrees
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/...
Shortwave energy dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska will detach
from the northern stream flow and drift off the southern California
coast midweek. Trends in ensemble membership continue in a direction
towards a deeper, slower moving, and further south propagating
vorticity lobe. Despite a few CMC members still showing a more
progressive, open wave, the overwhelming majority yield excellent
confidence in this discrete PV anomaly actually almost missing the
forecast area with the cold core passage likely focused more into
northern Mexico. Interaction between this PV anomaly and northern
stream PV digging towards the central Rockies/plains may be crucial
in determining whether sufficient moisture and ascent can align over
the forecast area and support scattered light showers.

NBM POPs/QPF have appropriately retreated given the trend among
ensembles, however have trimmed back values further in time and
space where typical model biases appear. Based on the evolving
pattern, would not be surprised if POPs Wednesday continued to
deteriorate with a greater focus on shortwave energy intensifying
into the region in NW flow. This common La Nina-like pattern
evolution of shortwave consolidation and maturation over the Midwest
periodically will begin as a Great Basin wave/cold core supporting
mountain showers into lower elevations over Arizona. This still
represents a low POP/low QPF scenario with increasing odds much of
the forecast area experiences no rainfall whatsoever. Regardless, as
the cold core and lower midlevel heights leak into the region during
the latter half of the week, temperatures should respond by
retreating closer to the seasonal normal before resuming a warming
trend over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1105Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Chance for lower VFR cigs and unusual wind shifts Monday morning are
the main forecast challenges this TAF period. Confidence is good
that light east winds will prevail into the mid/late afternoon under
high cirrus decks before attempting the typical westerly switch.
Cloud decks possibly as low as a 040-060 level may move into the PHX
airspace this evening with better odds of BKN decks at KSDL/KDVT. A
brief period of cigs is possible at KPHX after 06Z while winds may
be highly variable with the passage of a decaying cold front
resulting in only low to moderate forecast confidence.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Gusty W/SW winds this afternoon and early evening will be the main
weather issue with some isolated shallow FG and lower end VFR cigs
this morning yielding to high cirrus decks later in the day.
Forecast confidence is good that SW winds will begin strengthening
later this morning with frequent gusts developing through the
afternoon. A few passing midlevel cloud decks may redevelop
overnight, but impacts on operations should be neglible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture levels will remain elevated through much of the week with
minimum afternoon humidity values only falling into a 40-60% range,
then potentially somewhat drier by the weekend. This will follow
excellent overnight recovery greater than 75%. Very light winds with
speeds generally under 10 mph will be common with directions
following typical diurnal/nocturnal trends. A dry weather pattern
through the first part of next week may become slightly more
unsettled during the middle of the week, however chances for wetting
rainfall appear very limited.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...18