El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

543
FXUS65 KPSR 102335
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
435 PM MST Tue Mar 10 2026

.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will warm well above normal late this week through
  the weekend, in the nineties for many lower desert locations,
  resulting in widespread Minor Heat Risk.

- Temperatures are expected to warm further next week, likely
  reaching the triple digits across the lower deserts and breaking
  daily and potentially monthly high temperature records.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A fairly persistent area of light showers E/SE of the Phoenix
area has subsided and moved out of the CWA early this afternoon as
a well- defined cutoff low progresses eastward over Chihuahua. As
flow aloft has turned northerly on the backside of this cutoff
low, midlevel moisture is already scouring out, with only
lingering low level moisture leading to cumulus development across
portions of South- Central AZ. Confidence remains excellent that
midlevel heights will now build along the West Coast over the next
few days, with mean H5 heights eventually reaching a 585-589 dam
range. This will result in rapid warming into the 80s (5F-10F
above daily normals) Wednesday and then lower to middle 90s by
Thursday (around 15F above daily normals).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast confidence remains excellent through the weekend with
resounding ensemble agreement depicting stagnant longwave features
settling over the Conus. With trough amplification over the
eastern Conus, strong East Pacific ridging will envelop the
Southwest with H5 heights oscillating between 582-588dm. Ensemble
guidance spread remains extremely narrow and reflects anomalous
tropospheric height/thermal measures near the maximum of mid March
climatology. High temperatures 20F above normal will become
common by the end of the week resulting in widespread minor
HeatRisk while also setting daily records (see Climate section).
It`s becoming inevitable that some the warmer, lower desert
communities will experience the first 100F of the season early
next week as the NBM 50th percentiles now covers this threshold.
Virtually all ensemble members indicate even warmer weather
materializing by the middle of next week as H5 heights likely
eclipse 590dm. The ensemble guidance envelop is solidly above the
100F threshold for all lower desert communities portending a
prolonged period of record setting, and potentially unprecedented
warmth.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2335Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns are anticipated through the forecast
period. Elevated westerly flow with intermittent gusts into the
teens will continue over the next couple hours. Winds will
diminish below 8 kts after sunset and shift out of the E-SE late
tonight with periods of calm conditions at times. FEW to SCT
altocumulus with bases around 7-8 kft will dissipate this evening
and lead way to clear skies through Wednesday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns under mostly clear skies can be expected
across SE California. At KIPL, winds will generally be light and
variable with a period of S-SE winds likely this evening through
the overnight period. At KBLH, winds will generally be out of the
south. Speeds are expected to remain aob 10 kts at both sites.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather with unusually warm temperatures and low humidities will
return during the latter half of the week with record setting warmth
likely by the weekend. Minimum humidity levels in a 25-50% range
this afternoon will deteriorate significantly closer to a 7-15%
range late in the week. Correspondingly, good to excellent overnight
recovery of 60-90% will retreat into a 15-40% poor to fair category.
Winds will be fairly light with only modest afternoon upslope
gustiness limiting a greater fire weather danger.

&&

CLIMATE...

Daily record highs later this week/early next week:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/12     94 in 1900    100 in 1916     95 in 2017
3/13     92 in 2017     95 in 2017     95 in 2017
3/14     95 in 2013     96 in 2017     97 in 2017
3/15     92 in 2013     98 in 1934    100 in 1934
3/16     99 in 2007     99 in 2007    100 in 2007
3/17     99 in 2007    101 in 2007    101 in 2007
3/18     95 in 2017     96 in 2017     95 in 2007

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whittock
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...18
CLIMATE...18