El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

065
FXUS65 KPSR 282006
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
106 PM MST Wed Jan 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming will continue through the remainder of the week
  with temperatures reaching near 80 degrees by the weekend .

- Low pressure will slide through the Intermountain West,
  generating breezy conditions for high terrain areas and the
  Lower Colorado River Valley

- High pressure will be the dominant feature over the region
  through at least the beginning of next week, resulting in
  persistent dry weather.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Afternoon 500mb analysis reveals a minor disruption in the longwave
ridging pattern over the western CONUS as an embedded disturbance
traverses the Intermountain West. A second, much broader, but weak,
area of low pressure currently sits over the Eastern Pacific and is
throwing some lofted moisture over the Desert Southwest,
resulting in a constant stream of high-level cirrus and stratus.
Other than the cloud cover, these waves will have minimal impact
on conditions today as the dominant area of high pressure remains
the main weather influence. Heights aloft will continue to trend
upwards as will regional temperatures in response. Lower desert
highs this afternoon will hover in the lower to middle 70s.

The previously-mentioned continental trough will quickly migrate
eastward over the Plains during the next 24 hours. As it passes to
the north and east, our regional pressure gradient will tighten,
helping to generate breezy to locally windy conditions Thursday. The
strongest winds will be focused over higher terrain areas to the
east of the Phoenix metro and parts of the Lower Colorado River
Valley where gusts upwards of 30-35 mph appear likely. Advisory
level gusts cannot be completely ruled out, but should be limited
to the highest ridge tops. Therefore, no wind products will be
issued at this time.

For the back half of the week, the broader ridging regime will be
clear of any other minor disturbances and will become fully
reestablished over the western CONUS. After a brief pause in day-to-
day temperature increases, regional values will resume their uptrend
for the end of the workweek. Middle 70s will be common Thursday
afternoon before upper 70s, and even a few spots reaching 80
degrees, enter the picture for Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model guidance is in excellent agreement that the overall ridge
axis over the west coast will move eastward over the weekend, with
500 mb height fields rising above 580dm across the region. This
will translate to afternoon high temperatures both Saturday and
Sunday flirting with 80 degrees across most of the lower desert
communities, which would be a good 8-10 degrees above normal.
Heading into early next week, the ridge axis will shift eastward
and be replaced by a shortwave trough. This overall change will
likely result in slightly cooler temperatures as afternoon highs
retreat into the mid to upper 70s along with dry and tranquil
continuing.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1740Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Light diurnally driven winds will persist through Thursday under
SCT to BKN cirrus decks. Wind speeds will mostly stay below 7 kts,
with extended periods of light variability and calm conditions.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather concerns will exist through Thursday under occasionally
thick cirrus decks, which will clear Thursday morning. Winds will
generally oscillate between a west and north component with
speeds under 12kt. Extended periods of near calm conditions will
be common, especially in the early morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will prevail through the
next several days. Afternoon MinRHs through the end of the week
with range between 10-20%, rising slightly to between 15-25% over
the weekend. Overnight recoveries will range between 25-60%. Other
than some enhanced breeziness through early this afternoon across
the higher ridge tops of south-central AZ, winds everywhere else
will remain generally light and diurnal. Another round of
additional breeziness is expected Thursday and Friday across the
Lower Colorado River Valley and the higher terrain areas east of
Phoenix with periodic gusts in excess of 20-25 mph, with lighter
wind speeds elsewhere.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero