El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

197
FXUS65 KPSR 031012
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
312 AM MST Tue Feb 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will be seen today and Wednesday
  with highs reaching near 15 degrees above normal.

- Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds are expected Wednesday
  and Thursday with occasional wind gusts between 20 and 30 mph.

- Above normal temperatures and overall dry weather should prevail
  through the weekend before a pattern change next week brings
  much cooler temperatures and precipitation chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Skies have cleared out with another round of dry air shifting into
the region from the north as strong high pressure sets up to our
north. Today and Wednesday will see heights rise across the
region as the ridge strengthens to record strength across portions
of the Pacific Northwest and the Northern Rockies. H5 heights
across the Desert Southwest are forecast to rise to between
581-583dm tonight into Wednesday reaching well into the 90th
percentile of climatology. After the slight cooling we had on
Monday, temperatures will quickly rebound today with afternoon
highs topping out in the lower 80s across the lower deserts.

As the ridge develops to our north over the next couple of days, a
weak cut-off low will also take shape to our southwest. This
disturbance will not impact our region today, but by Wednesday it
will help to tighten the pressure gradient across the region
leading to breezy easterly winds across much of southern and
central Arizona and northerly winds across southeast California.
The combination of the high heights from the ridge and downslope
warming from the easterly winds into the lower deserts should push
highs another 2-3 degrees warmer. We may see several locations
reach 85 degrees on Wednesday with the NBM showing a 25%
probability for Phoenix hitting 86 degrees (daily record) and
around 10% chance as high as 88 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY/...
The cut-off low to our southwest should begin to move toward our
region later Wednesday before opening up and moving in on
Thursday. An upstream Pacific trough will also help to eject the
ridge to the east starting Thursday. This shift will quickly lower
heights across the Desert Southwest while also adding some high
cloudiness from southwest to northeast on Thursday. However, the
warm air mass in place will be hard to dislodge as daytime highs
are only expected to dip back into the upper 70s starting
Thursday.

Model guidance shows broad upper level troughing remaining over
the region through at least Friday with decent potential of the
upstream Pacific trough and the former cut-off low merging into a
new cut-off low (or at least a closed low) somewhere near or over
our region this weekend. Guidance is still heavily favoring a
continuation of the dry pattern despite the potential of the cut-
off low. However, some members show the low strengthening enough
this weekend to actually pull some meaningful moisture northward
resulting in some rain chances by late Sunday. Although this does
seem like a possibility, chances are still quite low for any rain
chances this weekend or even into early next week. Models are
still trying to show another one or two upstream Pacific troughs
moving toward or even into our region at some point next week, but
the timing keeps getting pushed back. The latest shows any decent
rain chances now mostly pushed back until the middle of next
week. Until this happens temperatures will remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1010Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns are expected throughout the TAF period.
Winds will be mostly light and diurnal in the Phoenix terminals for
the first portion of the TAF package. By late this evening into the
overnight hours KPHX and KIWA will be the typical E`rly direction
while KSDL and KDVT are expected to be out of the NE. Out west, KIPL
will go N`rly by 19Z then returning back W`rly for the overnight
hours, meanwhile, KBLH will maintain NNW winds throughout the TAF
period. Wind speeds across all terminals will be aob 10kts and skies
will be clear.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist
through midweek. Humidities will drop lower today with MinRHs
mostly between 10-15%, with similar readings for Wednesday.
Overnight recoveries will remain poor to fair, generally in a
35-55% range. Winds will begin to increase today across southeast
California and the Arizona higher terrain before becoming breezy
areawide starting Wednesday. Gusty easterly winds to as high as
25-30 mph will be possible across the eastern districts for
Wednesday and Thursday. The western districts will see more of a
north northeasterly component with gusts staying below 25 mph.
Improving humidities and lighter winds are expected Friday into
the weekend.

&&

.CLIMATE...Phoenix, AZ Daily Record High Temperatures.

2/3  86 (2025)
2/4  86 (2025)
2/5  87 (1963)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict