El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

646
FXUS65 KPSR 071105
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
405 AM MST Sat Feb 7 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will continue into early next
  week, with lower desert highs reaching the lower to middle
  eighties, resulting in Minor Heat Risk across the lower deserts.

- A pattern change next week will cool temperatures somewhat and
  may eventually bring rain chances into the following weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging that has been over much of Western CONUS the past several
days is now to our east into the Plains. Meanwhile the cut off low
that developed earlier yesterday off the SW coast of CA continues
to move southeastwards and is expected to continue down the Baja
Coast through today and tomorrow. The cut off low will be too far
south to really affect H5 heights over our region, resulting in
afternoon high temperatures to remain 8F-14F degrees above normal
as readings top out in the low to mid 80s across the lower deserts.
Early morning low temperatures will also remain above normal with
most areas bottoming out in the mid 40s to mid 50s, with the potential
for near record warm lows to be achieved in Phoenix. With the very
warm afternoons in place, it is encouraged to stay hydrated and
take breaks as needed, especially for travelers who may not be
accustomed to these temperatures at this time of year as Minor
HeatRisk is in effect for the lower desert areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ensembles continue to show good agreement that the cut off low will
continue to dive down the Baja Coast through the weekend before
beginning its travel eastwards over Northern Mexico starting Monday.
While this cut off low moves another troughing feature can be seen
diving down the West Coast starting Tuesday and throughout the rest
of the week, brining an increase in upper level cloud coverage
across the CWA with it. By mid next week, temperatures are expected
to cool into the mid 70s across the lower desert areas as H5 heights
will lower as this system approaches the region. However, some
uncertainty remains in the strength of this trough, but does show
good agreement in being positively tilted with the bulk of the
associated PVA remaining remain to the north of the region, severely
limiting precipitation chances mid to late next week. It is not
until next weekend that another troughing feature looks to favor our
region in regards of precipitation chances, but it is too far in
advance to get a clear picture. Additional monitoring of how
ensembles trend will need to take place over the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under some passing high clouds can be
expected throughout the TAF period. Winds will follow light and
diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 7 kts along with extended
periods of variable to calm conditions.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under some passing high clouds can
be expected through the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will generally
be light and variable while at KBLH, winds will fluctuate between
the northwest to northeast. Wind speeds at both terminals will
remain light aob 5 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Well above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
into early next week. Afternoon MinRHs will range from 15-25%
areawide through Monday, with overnight recoveries generally in a
40-65% range. Winds will remain light, generally below 15 mph
through Monday, with a northerly fetch this weekend then becoming
southwesterly Monday afternoon. By mid next week a pattern change
is expected which will help cool temperatures several degrees but
remaining above normal. While rain chances late next week are slim
humidities are expected to increase slightly, and bring periods
of increased breeziness.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Whittock