El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS65 KPSR 251946
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1246 PM MST Sat Apr 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mostly dry weather system moving through the region over the
  weekend will bring breezy to windy conditions, near to below
  normal temperatures, and perhaps a few showers over higher
  terrain areas.

- Temperatures will warm early next week, rising to slightly
  above normal starting midweek. Hotter temperatures with lower
  desert highs well into the nineties look possible by next
  weekend.

- A potential weather system late next week may bring chances for
  showers to the area, but widespread rainfall is not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow is currently stretched out across much of
Southwestern and South- Central CONUS, while a positively tilted
trough linger just off the California Coast. Considerable mid and
upper-level moisture advection over the Desert Southwest, provided
by the Eastern Pacific disturbance, has provided our forecast
area plentiful cloud cover this morning, but the at least some
thinning/clearing should take place through the remainder of
today. These cloud will suppress insolation which should provide
the region slightly "cooler" temperatures compared to yesterdays
highs, with readings this afternoon mainly in the middle 80s for
the lower deserts. An associated jet aloft, resulting from an
enhanced regional pressure gradient, will start to see some of its
higher momentum winds reach the surface this afternoon and
evening once convective mixing can initiate. The highest gusts
will be focused over SOutheast California where peak readings
should reach upwards of 25-30 mph. The cloud cover will have some
say in how much mixing occurs, but with skies clearing from west
to east, those western locations can expect those higher gusts.
Locations east of The Colorado River will see more limited gusts
thanks to shallower momentum transfer, but gusts 20-25 mph, with
locally higher values in Gila County, should be common.

Heading into this evening, the jet will strengthen and interact with
the Peninsular Ranges that split the Southern California Coast from
the desert, generating even stronger winds. BUFR soundings for
Imperial, CA indicate winds just above the surface will approach
50kt by around sunset. This is likely thanks to the channeling of
winds through an increasing stable layer of the atmosphere over the
mountains to the west, accelerating what will already be enhanced
winds down the terrain toward the desert floor. We lose the mixing,
but this terrain interactions will likely provide many locations,
from and area stretching from Joshua Tree NP down through most of
Imperial County, with gusts exceeding 40+ mph. It would not be
surprising too see isolated gusts 50+ mph as mountain rotors will
also be in play. In response, a Wind Advisory has been posted for
tonight for the area mentioned above.

As the trough moves on shore, it will drag a decaying cold front
along with it which will interact with some mid-level moisture that
could set off some shower activity for parts of the Arizona high
terrain early Sunday. However, limited forcing and a dry boundary
layer will inhibit most, if not all, rainfall activity for our
forecast area. Its not impossible that some communities near the
border of Maricopa and Yavapai Counties see a light shower, but the
best chances will remain over the Flagstaff CWA. Most of us will
miss out on the rain, but some very comfortable temperatures will
be observed behind the frontal boundary, with highs Sunday in the
upper 70s to right around 80 degrees, a good 5-10 degrees below
normal for this time of year.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Once the weekend system exits on Sunday, it will leave behind a
drier air mass which will slowly modify and warm Monday into
Tuesday. Skies will remain clear to mostly clear through Tuesday
with high temperatures warming back into the low 80s Monday and
the upper 80s Tuesday. Model uncertainty is still an issue for
later next week as another Pacific weather system is forecast to
develop well west of southern California early in the week before
moving through or near our region at some point during the latter
half of the week. The latest model guidance does indicate a
slightly later timing of the system, now favored more on Thursday
instead of Wednesday. There is also a good deal of uncertainty
with the strength and the amount of moisture that will be
available, but the potential rain chances definitely look better
than this weekend`s system. The latest NBM/WPC PoPs have risen
across south-central Arizona to 20-30%, while the rest of the
lower deserts are more in a 10-15% range.

Temperatures are still likely to warm above 90 degrees during the
latter half of the week, but the uncertainty with the weather
system is providing a wider range of potential highs for Thursday
and Friday. For now, highs for much of the lower deserts should
top out somewhere in the upper 80s to the lower 90s through Friday
before warming up even more next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1800Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concerns through the forecast period will be
periods of gusty SW-W winds and the potential for hazy conditions
and slantwise visibility restrictions from lofted dust, primarily
on Sunday. Winds out of the S-SSE currently will continue to veer
out of the SW-W over the next few hours, with gusts up to around
20 kts becoming common this afternoon into the early evening.
Gusts should subside between 01-03Z this evening, and confidence
is good that winds will maintain a prevailing westerly component
overnight. However, there is some evidence for a period of gusty
winds overnight and some erratic directions, though impacts should
be minimal as the predominant wind direction remains SW`rly. Gusts
will pick back up mid-late Sunday morning, with speeds peaking
during the afternoon around 20-25 kts, slightly stronger than what
is expected today. CIGs AOA 15 kft AGL will clear this evening,
leaving FEW-SCT midlevel decks. Confidence is moderate that CIGs
between 080-120 will move across the Phoenix airspace overnight
into early Sunday morning followed by mostly clear skies.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong, gusty SW-W winds and associated impacts will be the
primary aviation concern during the next 24 hours under mid to
high level CIGs. Winds are expected to be stronger at KIPL,
remaining westerly through the entire period, with gusts peaking
around 30-35 kts this evening. This may bring a period with some
hazy conditions from lofted/localized blowing dust, potentially
reducing visibilities below 10SM. Confidence is too low to include
sub-VFR visibilities in the TAF at this time. Confidence in the
wind forecast decreases tonight into early Sunday morning, though
extended periods of gusty SW-W winds are likely to continue
through the overnight hours. At KBLH, winds will also peak this
evening with gusts around 30-35 kts, but confidence is better that
gusts will eventually subside overnight. Sustained speeds around
10-15 kts will then prevail through mid morning Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An approaching weather system will bring increased winds today,
while lingering through Sunday. Wind gusts will peak late this
afternoon and through the evening, commonly reaching 20-25 mph in
many locations to as high as 35-50 mph across portions of
southeast California. Winds Sunday will peak in the afternoon with
gusts between 20-30 mph. Expect MinRHs this afternoon 15-20%
before increasing further Sunday to 20-30%. Overnight recoveries
will continue to improve, rising to 40-60% tonight before
dropping off again early next week. A mostly dry weather system
passing through the region tonight may bring some high terrain
showers, but CWR is less than 10%. Seasonably breezy afternoon
winds and drying conditions are forecast for early next week, but
winds will fall short of creating widespread elevated fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Sunday for
     CAZ560-563>568.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM..RW
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman