El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

255
FXUS65 KPSR 030952
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
252 AM MST Fri Apr 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures will persist through today
  before readings warm again this weekend returning to around 10
  degrees above normal.

- Increasingly gusty north winds will impact locations through the
  lower Colorado River valley this morning with localized blowing
  dust possible.

- There is a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms early next
  week across the eastern Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

Mid-level water vapor imagery shows weak troughing across the Desert
SW with quasi linear flow across the region, additionally, ridging
can be seen building in the Eastern Pacific. Even with broad
troughing over much of Western CONUS our CWA is still under slightly
positive H5 height anomalies with heights expecting to be near 574-
577 dam today and increasing to 576-579 dam by tomorrow afternoon.
This will lead to temperatures for today to be in the upper 80s
across the lower deserts and in the upper 70s in the higher terrain
areas. For Saturday, as heights aloft increase, afternoon highs will
be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the lower deserts and in the
upper 70s in the higher terrain areas, with some localized areas
over 80F. The aforementioned ridging in the Eastern Pacific will
lead to a tightening in the pressure gradient causing northerly
breezy to windy conditions along the Colorado River Valley. Current
model guidance suggests peak winds at the surface to be near 35-45
mph early this morning and lasting into the late morning hours
before weakening going into the afternoon hours. The highest wind
speeds are expected to be along the ridge tops.

By Sunday heights aloft continue to increase as the ridge moves
farther east and over the Desert SW. This will cause temperatures
across the lower desert to climb back into the mid 90s, and lower
80s in the higher terrain areas. However, a short wave trough looks
to progress across northwest Mexico and southern Arizona on Sunday.
Along with this shortwave PWAT anomalies during this time are
expected to rise to over 200% of normal in the eastern portion of
the higher terrain. The latest NBM has lower PoP chances down from
30-40% to now around a 15-20% chance, with QPF totals near 0.01".
Most of the forecasted QPF is further to the east, into Eastern
Arizona into Western New Mexico.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Wednesday/...

By Monday any moisture introduced to the region Sunday will begin to
trend back towards normal, but looks to remain slightly above
normal, generally around 100-130% of normal. This lingering moisture
will help facilitate some cloud coverage over the region throughout
the week. Temperatures throughout the week will be in the mid to
upper 90s across the lower deserts. These temperatures are in
response to ridging over the region throughout most of the workweek.
By late into the week into the weekend models are hinting at another
troughing feature approaching the region, which may help lower
temperatures back towards normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0525Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds will follow light and diurnal trends, though the typical
E`rly shift tonight/Friday morning will occur later than usual.
Confidence regarding wind directions decreases toward the end of
the forecast window as an earlier than usual E`rly shift may give
way to another W`rly shift. Given the nature of our typical
diurnal winds, TAFs currently reflect an E`rly direction during
this timeframe, with KPHX showing a VRB group later in the night
to reflect the uncertainty of multiple directional shifts. Clear
skies tonight will give way to increasing high cloud coverage by
Friday morning.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
The main aviation concern over the next 24 hours will be breezy to
windy conditions at both terminals. The strongest gusts are likely
to be focused at KBLH where readings will near 30 kt Friday
morning. Given these enhanced winds and the prevailing direction
being from the north, reduced VIS in blowing dust cannot be ruled
out, but confidence is too low to include mention BLDU in the TAF
at this time. At KIPL, peak gusts out of the N/NNE between 20-25
kt will be more common. Clear skies will give way to increasing
high base coverage by Friday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather returns to the region with temperatures hovering
slightly above normal through today. Minimum humidity levels are
expected to fall closer to 10% today. Tonight overnight
recoveries will deteriorate into a poor to fair 20-50% range.
Enhanced wind gusts 30-40 mph will be possible in western
districts early to late this morning creating elevated fire
weather conditions, while other areas will only see modest
afternoon breeziness. Lighter winds and temperatures rising to
well above normal are then anticipated for the weekend. Moisture
is expected to briefly increase across eastern Arizona this
weekend potentially bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the higher terrain on Sunday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Ryan/Kuhlman