El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

414
FXUS65 KPSR 310555
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1055 PM MST Mon Mar 30 2026

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will gradually cool through the middle of the
  week, but only from record breaking levels to a more typical
  above normal threshold.

- Isolated showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will be
  possible through Wednesday, primarily focused over higher
  terrain of south-central Arizona.

- Temperatures will warm again by early next week potentially
  approaching record highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
A complex flow pattern exists over the SW Conus early this
afternoon with a broad trough/quasi-zonal jet emanating from the
East Pacific containing several low amplitude shortwaves aimed
towards the forecast area. One such wave was lifting through
northern Arizona today while the southern Arizona pattern becomes
even more complicated by the presence of nearly stationary MCV`s
over northeast Sonora. Shallow 7-8 g/kg mixing ratios continue to
hover over much of the CWA with 12Z PWATs likely nearing 1.00", or
near a late March climatological maximum. While deep layer
westerly flow will thin boundary moisture closer to 6 g/kg this
afternoon, forecast BUFR soundings suggest MLCape ~500 J/kg with
minimal CinH. However with ascent mechanisms becoming absent
across the CWA this afternoon, there appears to be little impetus
towards deep convection, and recent HREF output depicts very
limited activity in and around the forecast area. While some gusty
winds could be generated by any convective elements given DCape
nearing 1500 J/kg, strengthening deep westerly winds through the
lower troposphere should disrupt any organized outflow boundaries
fairly rapidly.

Jet energy with additional embedded shortwaves will enter the
region Tuesday and Wednesday providing the next modest chances of
accumulating rainfall. Copious amounts of mid/upper level moisture
will stream into the Southwest starting tomorrow with extended
periods of thick cloud cover. While periods of ample synoptic
scale lift will be present across the area during this time frame,
paltry low level moisture with mixing ratios falling below 5 g/kg
will limit the ability for saturated midlevel ascent to
materialize into rain reaching the surface. Instead, widespread
virga should be common with only a few isolated showers surviving,
and better chances for accumulation focused over higher terrain
areas given a smaller sub-cloud dry layer. The best chance for
accumulating showers still appears to arrive late Tuesday night
through Wednesday morning. NBM POP output seems to be exhibiting
an overzealousness in both raw magnitude and expanse, and have
trimmed back values in both respects. Otherwise, prolonged periods
of thick clouds could easily narrow the diurnal temperature
spread and retard afternoon highs below the mandated NBM forecast
such that readings Tuesday may struggle to reach 90F, and middle
80s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weather pattern will shift once again later this week with
upper level troughing setting up across the central U.S. and a
ridging building off the West Coast before eventually sliding into
our region by the weekend. Dry west northwesterly flow takes over
across the Desert Southwest starting Thursday with moisture
levels lowering and temperatures initially staying fairly stable
as a weather system passes by to our north. NBM forecast highs
remain in the mid to upper 80s for Thursday and Friday, but this
will not last long as the ridge will be entering our region by
Saturday. Fortunately, guidance favors the ridge already weakening
as it moves into our region, but it will be enough to push
daytime highs back into the low to mid 90s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Easterly winds overnight and through the morning will stay
somewhat elevated at KPHX and KIWA at speeds of 5-10 kt. But winds
at KSDL and KDVT will remain light and variable. By late this
morning/early this afternoon winds will go south/southwesterly
with speed sup around 10 kt. Then winds will pick up out of the
west by 21Z with gusts upwards of 20-25 kt continuing into the
overnight hours. Shower and storm chances Tuesday afternoon will
be low (<10%), and thus excluded from TAFs, but development near
the metro area cannot be ruled out. A cold front will move through
during the overnight/morning hours on Wednesday. A broken line of
light showers is possible (<10%), but most activity may fall as
virga. Due to the low chances this has also been excluded from the
TAFs. Mid and high clouds will continue to pass over the area,
with convective cloud bases as low as 9-10K ft AGL in the
afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Westerly winds at KIPL and southwesterly winds at KBLH aob 10 kt
will become light and variable around 09Z. Winds will then
redevelop a westerly component (southwesterly at KBLH) by the
mid- to-late morning hours. Wind gusts upwards of 20-25 kts are
once again expected during the afternoon and evening hours. SCT to
BKN mid and high clouds will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture levels have improved helping to boost humidities and MinRHs
to around 20%. The better moisture has also helped to bring back low-
end rain chances with a few isolated thunderstorms still possible
today across the eastern districts. Isolated rain chances should
continue for the eastern districts through Wednesday, but
thunderstorm chances will mostly end after today. Outside of any
convective induced winds, expect typical spring afternoon upslope
gusts 20-25 mph. The near record breaking temperatures will cool
slightly by Tuesday and more so starting Wednesday. Rain chances
will completely come to an by Thursday as gradual drying and warming
occurs. Daytime breeziness will also continue through Friday with
fire weather conditions worsening as MinRHs drop to below 15%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman