El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

188
FXUS65 KPSR 120600
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1100 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot temperatures will persist through the next
  several days with widespread Moderate Heat Risk.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will remain confined to
  southeast Arizona today, with the potential for distant outflows
  to move through south-central Arizona this evening with gusty
  winds and areas of blowing dust.

- Deeper moisture will increase the chances for more widespread
  shower and thunderstorm activity on Sunday with elevated
  rainfall chances continuing through all of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Current objective analysis reveals that the the sub-tropical high
has continued to migrate its way northward and is now centered near
the Four Corners region. This progression has flipped the flow
across the region from northerly/northwesterly to the
east/southeast, allowing for much better moisture flux across the
Desert Southwest. Though parts of Arizona have occasionally seen
rain since June, with frequency increasing over the past week or so,
the pattern that is setting up is the first time this summer we have
seen a more traditional monsoon setup.

For today, even though moisture will be better compared to the past
few days, shower and thunderstorm coverage will remain primarily
where is has been since the front half of this past work week, along
parts of the Rim, over the White Mountains, and across southeast
Arizona. However, given the easterly wind component, better
thermodynamics, and sufficient shear to support convective
lifespans, storms are expected to move off higher terrain areas
toward the lower deserts. However, the vast majority of desert
activity will remain mostly in the confines of the Tucson CWA. A
low end chance (~20%) does exist to see a quick shower or storm
over our portion of Pinal County, so it would not be surprising
for locations such as Florence, Coolidge, and even Casa Grande to
experience some convective activity. The greater and more far
reaching impact will be from a potential outflow pushed out by the
activity over southeastern AZ and moving up through Pinal and
Maricopa Counties. Main impacts with this feature would be gusty
winds near or in excess of 35 mph, and areas of dense blowing dust
that could drop visibility to 1 mile and below at times. If you
plan to travel along the I-8 and I-10 corridors this evening, be
prepared for potentially hazardous driving conditions. Due to the
strong signal of a robust outflow and its associated dust impacts,
a Blowing Dusty Advisory has been posted for Pinal and southern
Maricopa Counties. Even though most of the Phoenix metro is not
included in this advisory, reduced visibility still may observed
depending on how strong the boundary becomes.

This evenings activity will help set the stage for further, and
more widespread convection for Sunday, thanks to the introduction
of better boundary layer moisture. This, combined with ample
moisture getting pumped in thanks to the southeasterly flow of
the high will result in very favorable environment to see greater
coverage of showers thunderstorms over the typical mountainous
areas, but also the lower deserts. Given the nature of the
monsoon, not everywhere in the lower elevations will see rainfall,
but current PoPs indicate some of the best chances (30-40% for
the deserts east of the Colorado River, 50-70% for foothill and
higher terrain locations of eastern AZ) we have seen so far this
summer. Convective initiation for western Maricopa, La Paz, and
Yuma Counties will be heavily dependent on colliding outflows, but
hi-res data points toward this outcome, this is likely why rain
chances continue for these areas, even after the sun goes down and
instability starts to decrease. Main impacts will be heavy
downpours, strong winds greater than 35 mph, and another round of
blowing dust for some locations. It isn`t out of the realm of
possibility that some storms even become strong to severe. HREF
neighborhood probabilities indicate 10- 30% chance of winds
exceeding 58 mph, and the Storm Prediction Center concurs as they
have highlighted the I-10 corridor with a slight chance (15%) of
storms generating severe level winds. Small hail can`t be ruled
either out with the strongest cells as model soundings indicate
the presence of CAPE within the hail growth zone.

Even though atmospheric heights this weekend will not dramatically
different from what see saw this past week when temperatures will
consistently hitting between 110-115 degrees, afternoon highs today
and Sunday will be a few degrees lower, likely a result of the
increasing moisture. Readings will run near to slightly above normal
with lower desert locations hovering between 104-111 degrees.
However, the humidity giveth, humidity taketh away as that extra
moisture will counteract any temperature decreases by making it feel
hotter than was is observed. Moderate HeatRisk will remain
widespread across the region, so heat precautions should continue to
be exercised if plans take you outside.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/...
Very good agreement continues amongst the guidance in the overall
pattern setup as the upper high will position itself over the
northern Plains and Upper Midwest area through midweek before
repositioning itself across the central Rockies by the latter
half of the week. This overall pattern setup will maintain
easterly flow in place across the Desert Southwest, helping with
moisture transport. Latest EPS and GEFS continue to show PWATs
staying above 1.5" through all of next week along with low-level
mixing ratios remaining above 10-12 g/kg. Therefore, conditions
will continue to remain conducive for daily thunderstorm activity
with daily variations in the overall coverage. Heading towards the
latter half of the week, forecast uncertainty increases as there
continues to be some indication from the guidance of an easterly
wave/inverted trough potentially approaching the area. However,
models are all over the place in terms of the timing and track of
this feature. However, if the easterly wave/inverted trough
scenario comes to fruition, it will likely enhance convective
activity and thus this will be something that will have to be
monitored during the next several days.

Temperatures through the first half of the week will generally
remain steady state at near to slightly above normal with highs
generally between 106-110 degrees, resulting in the continuation of
widespread Moderate HeatRisk. The latest NBM shows temperatures
cooling to below normal levels, potentially into the low 100s for
afternoon highs across the lower deserts, by the end of the week
most likely due to increasing cloud cover and the potential for more
widespread rainfall, especially if the easterly wave/inverted trough
scenario pans out.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0600Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Lingering haze and reduced vsby, and a strong NE`rly outflow
tomorrow night will be the main aviation concerns this TAF
package. The S/SW outflow is continuing to move northward through
the Metro with pockets of reduced VIS (down to 3-4SM), BLDU, and
HZ. Outflow is weakening as it moves northward and VIS is only
expected to drop to around 6SM with HZ at KSDL respectively. Some
wind gusts up around 20kt are expected with the outflow. VIS is
improving at KPHX and KIWA and should be back to above 6SM during
06Z hour. By 08-09Z winds are expected to go SE`rly with wind
speeds up around 7-10 kt. A period of light and variable winds is
then expected tomorrow morning at most terminals prior to the
westerly shift by the late morning hours, with winds generally aob
10 kt. SCT-BKN mid and high level cloud bases will remain through
out the period.

Sunday night: Confidence remains high that tomorrow night a
complex of showers and storms will be moving off the Mogollon Rim
towards the Phoenix Metro. However, confidence remains low on how
much of this activity will survive into the lower deserts.
But, we are expecting some isolated to scattered shower and storm
activity across the Phoenix Metro. These storms are expected to
arrive around 00-01Z tomorrow night and have been introduced into
all the TAFs. As this complex of storms moves into the Metro,
winds will abruptly shift out of the NE. With NE`rly winds, no
reductions in VIS from BLDU/HZ are anticipated. However, wind
gusts up around 30 kt are possible as the outflow initially moves
through, then wind gusts are expected to drop into a 20-25 kt
range. VCTS has also been introduced into the TAF with SHRA/TSRA
being left out for now due to the confidence being lower with how
much of the activity will survive into the lower deserts.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Main aviation concern through this TAF period will be another
period of reduced visibilities with HZ at KBLH tomorrow morning. A
strong complex of storms is over Sonora Mexico and is expected to
push another strong outflow northwestward towards KBLH. Similar to
the past couple of nights winds will remain out of the south with
speeds in the 12-17 kt range expected as the boundary moves
through. Visibility is expected to drop to around 5SM with HZ
during the 11-13Z timeframe. Outside this outflow winds will be
southerly the whole period. Some occasional gusts in the upper
teens to around 20 kt are possible again tomorrow afternoon. At
KIPL, similar to the past couple of nights, no reduction in VIS is
expected tomorrow morning. While the outflow may reach the
terminal, it would likely only increase wind speeds to around
10-15kt for a couple hours. Otherwise, winds are expected to
remain out of the SE through the whole period. SCT-BKN high level
cloud bases will remain through out the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably hot temperatures will prevail through the next several
days as readings will be near to slightly above normal. Isolated
thunderstorm activity is expected today, mainly across the far
eastern districts. More widespread monsoonal activity is likely
starting Sunday and continuing through all of next week along
with elevated probabilities of wetting rains. Afternoon humidity
levels today will bottom out between 15-25%. Starting on Sunday
and persisting through much of next week, afternoon humidity
levels will increase even further and bottom out above 20-30% as
moisture levels increase, and thus alleviating much of the fire
weather concerns. Outside of any potential outflows/thunderstorm
winds, winds should favor diurnal trends with the typical
afternoon breeziness around 20-25 mph.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Lojero
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero