El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

621
FXUS65 KPSR 062011
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
111 PM MST Mon Jul 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot temperatures are expected through this week, resulting
  in widespread Moderate Heat Risk and areas of Major Heat Risk
  Tuesday through Thursday.

- Due to the expected Major Heat Risk, an Extreme Heat Warning
  has been posted for the lower deserts of south-central and
  southwest Arizona, and southeast California, through the middle
  of the week.

- Outside of an isolated chance of a shower or thunderstorm over
  higher terrain areas of eastern Arizona, dry conditions will
  prevail for the majority of our forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
Afternoon upper-air analysis reveals that sub-tropical high pressure
now stretches from the Central Plains down through the Desert
Southwest as this feature continues its track to be come the
dominant weather regime over our corner of the CONUS. However, the
high has yet to settle in a favorable position to support the
advection of enough moisture to set off widespread showers and
storms across Arizona. So with atmospheric heights trending upwards
and plentiful sunshine, the hottest stretch of the year so far is
likely to be seen through this week. For today, lower desert highs
will reach between 108-113 degrees, resulting in widespread Moderate
and localized areas of Major HeatRisk. Tuesday is when an Extreme
Heat Warning will go into effect as coverage of Major HeatRisk
expands due to widespread afternoon temperatures ranging between 110-
115 degrees and, lows only falling into the 80s. Around the Phoenix
metro tonight, some spots may barely dip below 90 degrees, offering
very little relief from the day time temperatures.

Near to slightly above normal moisture values, with PWATs hovering
between 0.7-1.2", are in place across our forecast area and the
remainder of Arizona. Although not overly impressive, it will be
just enough to help spark some isolated showers and thunderstorms
around the White Mountains and other prominent terrain features of
southeastern AZ. A stray shower or storm cannot be completely ruled
out for far eastern Gila County, but the vast majority of the
activity should be confined to the Tucson and Flagstaff CWAs.
Similar activity is expected for Tuesday, with maybe some rainfall
advancing slightly further to the west, but once again, most
locations within our coverage area will remain dry. If convection
can sprout far enough into Gila County, maybe even into far eastern
Pinal County as well, then perhaps we could see an outflow descend
into lower desert areas Tuesday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Hot and overall dry conditions are expected for the latter half of
the week with the subtropical high center redeveloping to just off
the coast of southern California, but with little change in H5
heights for our region. The shift in the ridge is expected to bring
drier air temporarily into at least western portions of our area,
but not much change for south-central and eastern Arizona. An even
more inhospitable upper level pattern should limit daytime
convection further starting Wednesday with PoPs lowering closer to
10% over the Arizona high terrain by Thursday.

Extreme heat will continue to be the main forecast concern through
the rest of the week with the peak of the heat likely occurring on
Wednesday with highs reaching 112-116 degrees. Once the ridge center
becomes more established to our west Thursday it begins to weaken,
temperatures are expected to very slowly drop. Friday`s temperatures
are still very close to Major HeatRisk, especially over the western
deserts where highs near 115 degrees are likely to linger through
Friday.

Model guidance is still favoring the subtropical ridge to quickly
shift back to the northeast over the coming weekend, potentially
reaching northern Colorado and Wyoming by Sunday. If and once this
occurs, it will turn our winds out of the east southeast as early as
Friday night, beginning the process of moisture advection into the
region. Uncertainty in how quickly ample monsoon moisture will move
into our area is still a issue as it could happen as early as late
Saturday into Sunday, but more likely late Sunday into Monday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances are expected to increase from east
to west as the moisture spreads into the region with the best
chances of reaching the lower deserts at some point early next week.
We will also be watching for any easterly disturbances that will
manage to move across northern Mexico into or near the Desert
Southwest. Any of these potential features are likely to enhance
storm chances next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather issues will exist through Tuesday afternoon under a
few mid/high cloud decks. Confidence is excellent that wind
behavior will be nearly identical to the past 24 hours including
limited afternoon westerly gusts, and a later than usual overnight
shift back to easterly.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Occasionally gusty winds will be the only weather issue through
Tuesday afternoon under clear skies. Confidence is good that
variable wind directions this morning will quickly become S/SE in
the afternoon before veering more SW in the evening. A few gusts
near 20kt will be possible mid afternoon through the evening before
decoupling overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hotter conditions, but a slight improvement in moisture is expected
for the first half of this week. Lower desert highs will warm to 110
degrees starting today before peaking at around 115 degrees midweek.
Minimum afternoon humidities of 10-15% are anticipated each day with
overnight recoveries of 25-40%. Winds will follow diurnal
upslope/downvalley patterns with modest upslope afternoon breeziness
mostly staying below 20 mph, which will continue to result in
periods of elevated fire danger. A gradual increase in moisture this
week should eventually lead to some isolated storm chances across
the eastern Arizona high terrain, but any chances for wetting rains
in South-Central AZ is more likely to hold off until next weekend.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Thursday for
     AZZ530>534-536>551-553>555-559-560-562.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Thursday for
     CAZ562-564>570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman