El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

344
FXUS65 KPSR 061701
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1000 AM MST Wed May 6 2026

.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A pronounced warming and drying trend will occur over the next
several days pushing temperatures above normal starting Thursday.

- Hot temperatures will develop over the region by the weekend with
lower desert highs topping 100 degrees as early as Friday before
peaking at just over 105 degrees early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weather system that brought much cooler air into the region
along with some isolated rainfall is slowing exiting to the
southeast. Drier air has already started to work its way into the
area from the north and this will keep skies clear to mostly clear
at least in the short-term. A high amplitude upper level ridge is
also edging into the Pacific Northwest and much of California. This
feature is forecast to slowly move into our region from the
northwest starting Thursday. The cool air mass currently in place
will begin to modify already today with highs reaching into the mid
to upper 80s, but more so starting Thursday as the high pressure
ridge starts to influence the region. The rapidly rising heights
starting Thursday is expected to push readings to as warm as the
upper 90s across the Lower CO River Valley and southeast California
to 92-95 degrees in the Phoenix area.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A noticeable shift in the weather pattern late this week and lasting
through at least the first part of next week will lead to any
weather systems tracking across southern Canada into the North-
central and Northeastern U.S. Upper level ridging will also slowly
take over across much of the Western U.S. and eventually into the
Southern Plains by early next week. The first ridge that will move
into our region late this week is expected to weaken somewhat, but
another even stronger ridge is favored to build in from the west
over the weekend and last through at least the first part of next
week. H5 heights are seen rising to between 582-585dm this weekend
before likely peaking between 588-591dm next Monday. Forecast
uncertainty increases a bit going into the middle of next week as
there are some discrepancies with a weak cut-off low that may
develop west of Baja. However, for now this feature may end up being
too weak to have much influence over our region later next week.

Forecast temperatures continue to rise over the weekend into early
next week with highs easily topping 100 degrees by Saturday and
potentially even reaching or topping 105 degrees as early as Sunday.
Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected over the weekend as
afternoon temperatures climb to above 100 degrees. The hottest
temperatures should fall on Monday and/or Tuesday with the latest
NBM indicating some western lower deserts reaching 110 degrees to
105-107 degrees in the Phoenix area. This very well could result in
Major HeatRisk across portions of the area for Monday and Tuesday,
so Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings may eventually be needed. Skies are
likely to stay fairly clear through at least Monday, but some higher
clouds may finally make their way into the region by next Tuesday or
Wednesday depending on what happens with the potential cut-off upper
level low. Models do mostly favor the ridge breaking down during the
latter half of next week likely leading to a cooling trend. Despite
this, above normal temperatures should persist as highs look to stay
close to 100 degrees late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1700Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather impacts will exist through Thursday afternoon under
clear skies. Confidence is good that west winds will be well
established by late morning, then persisting through late
evening/overnight. Depending on smoke generation from a wildfire
well west of the metro, slantwise visibility may become an issue
near sunset, but confidence and chance of impacts are low.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No weather concerns will exist through Thursday afternoon under
clear skies. Light W/SW winds will be preferred at KIPL while a
nocturnal northerly drift is favored at KBLH. Extended periods of
light and variable winds will be common.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A rapid warming trend over the next several days will push readings
to above normal by Thursday and to well above normal starting this
weekend. Humidities will also quickly lower over the next couple of
days with MinRHs reaching 15-25% today to around 10% starting
Thursday. However, despite the drier and warmer conditions, winds
will be fairly light with only periodic upslope gusts in the mid
teens through Thursday. Breeziness should pick up more Friday into
the weekend with gusts to around 20 mph expected. Although
conditions for critical fire weather will not be met, single digit
MinRHs and well above normal temperatures by this weekend may
produce some areas of elevated fire danger.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman