El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

174
FXUS65 KPSR 190520
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1020 PM MST Wed Feb 18 2026

.UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick moving system Thursday night into Friday will reinforce
cooler temperatures with additional chances for light showers across
central Arizona.

- Drier weather with much warmer temperatures will return to the
region early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Early afternoon objective analysis and WV imagery depicts a well
defined shortwave and vorticity center propagating along the UT/AZ
border with an intense zonal jet streak just north of the CWA. This
is part of a larger longwave troughing pattern covering the western
Conus with another strong shortwave along the Pacific NW coast
poised to dive into the mean trough base Friday before the
translation of stronger jet energy towards the eastern side of the
trough shifts the entire negative height anomaly into the plains.
The current orientation of the jet streak over central Arizona is
creating a tremendous midtropospheric inversion across the CWA, but
also enhancing wind speeds into the lower levels with 40-50kt H8-H7
winds along a cold front associated with an enhanced pressure
gradient. Mechanical mixing will partially tap this higher momentum
airmass through mid afternoon before the gradient quickly relaxes
behind the cold front, but not before some areas of blowing dust are
realized across parts of SE California and far SW Arizona.

The aforementioned inversion will act to cap saturated ascent across
the vast majority of the CWA with only a shallow, narrow layer along
the frontal boundary. As such, orographic lift may become the
primary impetus available to support organized showers and
measurable precipitation through this evening before drier air
infiltrates lower levels. While snowfall will be common across the
Mogollon Rim north of the jet core and snow levels falling close to
4500ft, lack of moisture within the dendrite growth layer over
southern Gila County will largely preclude any accumulation with
only spotty snow grains and column favored. Otherwise, northern AZ
shortwave energy will rapidly progress into the central Rockies
tonight leaving flat, zonal flow and weak subsidence over the SW
Conus Thursday. With H5 height depressed into a 558-562dm range,
confidence is very good that temperatures continue to hover 5F-10F
below normal.

The final shortwave in the series associated with the western trough
will propagate through northern Arizona Thursday night and Friday
with an abrupt Conus pattern shift thereafter. The track of this
vorticty center will nearly mirror the current system, albeit
possibly slightly displaced south and not as thermodynamically
hostile across lower elevations. Nevertheless, being somewhat
mistimed during the overnight and early morning along with only a
brief period of saturation along another frontal boundary, rainfall
chances and potential amounts will be quite limited and likely
focused over foothills and mountains of central Arizona. A deeper
moisture profile and snow levels around 4000ft may support some
light accumulations over southern Gila County, however forecast
soundings still suggest dry air above the H7 layer and dendrite
formation may become somewhat ineffective significantly limiting
amounts. Otherwise, confidence is excellent that temperatures Friday
will follow a near persistence forecast, however clearing skies,
light winds, and a cool, dry post-fronal airmass should result in
chilly conditions by Saturday morning with readings likely the
coolest experienced in well over a month.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/...
Much quieter weather will move in starting Saturday as upper level
ridging overtakes the region after the Friday system exits to the
east. The cold air mass will mostly stay around for Saturday as
highs only warm back to around 70 degrees, but the warming trend
will pick up speed going into early next week. Guidance shows H5
heights rising enough to breach the 90th percentile of climatology
Monday into Tuesday before gradually lowering through the middle of
next week. The latest NBM forecast highs show lower desert readings
easily topping 80 degrees starting Monday with some potential for
the warmest locations to reach 85 degrees during the first half of
next week. However, there will likely also be a decent amount of
higher level clouds next week as an atmospheric river is expected to
just miss our region to the northwest. Higher clouds spilling into
the ridge may at times limit daytime highs depending on the
thickness of the clouds.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0520Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concern tonight into Thursday morning will be
low confidence surrounding prevailing wind directions at times.
W`rly winds should prevail prior to sunrise before becoming more
VRB and potential turning to the E/SE. However, it is not out of
the question that W winds persist through the night. By the early
afternoon hours, a SW`rly component will become established
quickly, even gusting in the upper-teens to near 20 kts at times.
Besides some passing high cirrus tonight, FEW lower bases around
6-8k ft will be observed throughout much of the forecast.

Toward the end of the forecast window, more persistent breeziness
along with iso SHRA activity will accompany another frontal
passage. CIGs starting around 04-06Z will begin to lower toward 4k
ft, with even the slight potential (~30%) of seeing MVFR
conditions being met.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Breezy to windy conditions will once again be the main aviation
concern during the next 24 hours. Winds have relaxed this evening
and should remain generally light through sunrise. Sustained
speeds at KIPL might be relatively elevated at times between 8-12
kts. Gusts will quickly return by late morning, reaching upwards
of 25-30 kts at each terminal. Periods of mostly clear skies will
be joined by some windows of passing high cirrus and lower bases
around 4-6k ft.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wind speeds will increase again today, particularly across western
districts with gusts 30-40 mph common. A few showers will be
possible in foothill and mountain locations mainly this afternoon,
however instances of wetting rainfall will be isolated before
clearing Thursday with weaker winds. Minimum humidity values will
range widely between 25-60% this afternoon, then tighten to 25-45%
Thursday. This will follow good to excellent overnight recovery of
60-100%. Drying and warming conditions are expected for the weekend
with MinRHs dropping into the teens for the lower deserts and
temperatures rising to above normal.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman