El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

769
FXUS65 KPSR 270545
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1045 PM MST Sun Apr 26 2026

.UPDATE...06Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering low pressure will result in continued breezy to windy
  conditions and below normal temperatures today.

- Temperatures will warm early next week, rising to slightly
  above normal starting midweek. Hotter temperatures with lower
  desert highs well into the nineties look possible by next
  weekend.

- A potential weather system during the latter portion of the
  upcoming week will increase rainfall chances parts of the
  region, with the best chances currently focused over the
  Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Current objective analysis reveals troughing encompassing much of
the Intermountain West with a vort max hugging the Arizona-Utah
border. This system, after already producing 40-50 mph winds for
SE CA and a few sprinkles/light showers for parts of AZ, will
continue to influence the Desert Southwest for at least one more
day, with the main weather impact being a continuation of enhanced
winds. Once we start to convectively mix down higher momentum
winds, widespread gusts 20-30 mph can be expected, with the top
end of that range favoring the high terrain of South-Central AZ
and the typical wind prone area of Imperial and Riverside
Counties. Locally higher gusts should be focused over higher ridge
top areas and the very southwestern corner of Imperial County.
The latter of those locations will still see elevated potential
for gusts approaching 50 mph through this evening, therefore, a
Wind Advisory remains in effect until 11 p.m. PDT tonight. One
other piece of the forecast today that cannot be overlooked is our
regional high temperatures this afternoon as the associated
cooler air with the above-mentioned disturbance helps to keep
readings in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees. We talk about
warmer-than-typical temperatures quite a bit, so it is nice to
say that our afternoon values should be between 5-10 degrees
below- normal for late April.

Heading into the front half of the upcoming workweek, our forecast
area will find itself in a bit of a transition zone as subtropical
high pressure begins to nudge at the broader negative height anomaly
field. As we flip the pattern, the thermal profile will take some
time to respond, so temperatures on Monday will only be a few
degrees warmer than what is expected this afternoon, with readings
in the upper 70s to lower 80s. With the interaction of these two
different weather regimes, the regional pressure gradient will
remain relatively tight, but not nearly as much as this weekend.
Marginal breeziness with gusts 15-25 mph should be the extend of
what is seen. The amplifying ridge will slice the stretched out
troughing in two, becoming more entrenched across the Desert
Southwest by Tuesday. In response, a more noticeable temperature
increase will take place, jumping closer to normal with
widespread middle 80s for lower desert locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY/...
Earlier in the week a piece of vorticity will come off the main
trough moving through Western CONUS and form a closed low in the
Pacific Ocean well off the coast of central CA. By the middle to end
of the week the closed low will progress eastward and eventually
move on shore during the later half of the workweek. As the low
approaches our region, models show it becoming an open wave and
getting wrapped into a shortwave trough moving through the Great
Basin region. While models have come into better agreement on the
timing of this system, looking like a Thursday event, they still
disagree on the exact strength and placement of this system. The
GEFS favors a slightly stronger and further south system whereas the
ECMWF ensemble favors a slightly weaker and more northern system.
If the GEFS were to come to fruition then that would lead to
better precipitation chances and cooler temperatures for our
region. Thursday has the largest temperature spread of this coming
week and is currently a 9 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentiles. Either way, it does look like temperatures will cool
and PWATs will increase on Thursday. The latest NBM/WPC PoPs are
around 10-20% across south-central AZ and 20-40% across the higher
terrain and foothills in eastern AZ.

Heading into the weekend the models are in pretty good agreement
on the overall synoptic pattern. The aforementioned low pressure
system will quickly exit the region on Friday with a low amplitude
ridge moving in behind it and building over our region. With
ridging building in heights aloft will be on the rise. H5 heights
look to go from 570-575 dm on Friday to 576-579 dm on Sunday.
Additionally with high pressure overhead skies will be mostly
clear. The ample sunshine and building high pressure will allow
for temperatures to warm well above normal next weekend. Highs are
currently forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s (mid to upper
80s) across the lower deserts (higher terrain).

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0540Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Aviation concerns will remain low through the forecast period,
aside from breezy conditions again Monday afternoon. Winds are
expected to continue out of the W-SW through the majority of the
overnight period before shifting out of the ESE at KIWA by 09Z and
KPHX around 12Z Monday. Winds will gradually veer out of the SW
on Monday with at least a 3-4 hr period of light southerly
crosswinds anticipated. By Monday afternoon, expect gusts to
return at all terminals, reaching up to 15-20 kts at times. Clear
skies will prevail over the region.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: T
Aviation concerns will remain low across SE California aside from
continued gusty winds through Monday afternoon. Winds are expected
to remain S-SW at KBLH and W at KIPL through the entire forecast
period. Gusts up to 25-30 kts will continue for several hours at
KIPL, but are expected to relax late tonight. Speeds should remain
aob 8 kts at KBLH overnight. Winds will increase at both terminals
late tomorrow morning into the afternoon with gusts up to 20-25
kts becoming common. Clear skies are expected to continue over the
entire region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weather system will move through the region today leading to
another day of increased winds. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are
expected across most locations, with gusts as high as 30-50 mph
across portions of SE CA. Wind gusts across SE CA will gradually
decrease through the day, but gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are still
expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. This system
will allow for minRHs to be in the 20-30% range before decreasing
back into a 5-20% range during the first half of the week (Tuesday
is currently forecasted to have the lowest RHs). Overnight
recoveries will be in the 40-70% range tonight, but lower to
30-60% tomorrow and 20-40% on Tuesday night. Winds will return to
more seasonable breezy afternoon conditions during the first half
of the week and are expected to fall short of creating widespread
elevated fire weather concerns. Another weather system looks to
move through the region during the later half of the workweek
leading to increased RH and slight chances for rain, however CWR
remains very low at this time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM..RW
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich