El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

970
FXUS65 KPSR 282315
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 PM MST Wed May 28 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 00z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Temperatures heating up through Friday, highs peaking around
 100-106 across the lower deserts on Friday leading to areas of
 Moderate HeatRisk.

-An influx of tropical moisture over the weekend will bring an
 increase chance for showers and a few thunderstorms and below
 temperatures by Sunday for portions of Southwest and South
 Central Arizona.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An anomalous pattern evolving across the region the rest of this
week and into the upcoming weekend. Heights build over the pacific
northwest as cut-off low spins off the Baja California coast,
stalling before lifting northeast across the region late Sunday.

Ahead of system as the heights build over the top of the cut-off
low, temperatures will continue to climb through Friday, although
the trend has been not quite as hot. Highest temperatures in the
deserts look to be around 105 with just localized moderate
HeatRisk so no extreme heat headlines expected.

For the start of the weekend, upper low continues to remain cut
off west of the Baja allowing moisture to slowly lift north into
the region with PWATs slowly on the increase in upper level
southeast flow. Adding moisture will be a decaying tropical system
off the western Mexican coast. Upper low advertised to begin a
northeast movement and across AZ Sunday night. While Saturday
could see a few light showers and virga lift north into the region
on moisture advection, main surge of moisture and associated
dynamics hold off until Sunday. PWATs increase above an inch on
Sunday for an increase in showers. With the colder temperatures
aloft, lapse rates will steepen to increase the thunderstorm risk
as well late on Sunday. Still plenty of uncertainty on amounts,
but this does appear to be an unusual widespread rain chance for
Sunday. More widespread clouds and showers will keep temperatures
below normal.

As the low lifts northeast across the region, it will weaken and
become absorbed in overall troughing across the Rockies. This
troughing will result in a drier westerly component by late Monday
and throughout next week. Temperatures should be kept closer to
normal or maybe slight below normal through mid week with some
local afternoon breeziness.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2310Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns under SCT to BKN high clouds expected
throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will continue
to exhibit the typical diurnal tendencies with speeds aob 10 kts,
with some occasional gusts into the mid to upper teens through
early this evening and once again Thursday afternoon/early
evening. Periods of light variability likely, especially during the
diurnal transitions.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns under SCT to BKN high clouds expected
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, SE winds will switchover for a
period of time to the SW early this evening before switching back
out of the SE during the overnight period. At KBLH, winds will
fluctuate between the S-SW. Overall wind speeds at both terminals
will be aob 10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Seasonably dry conditions will continue over the next couple of
days as Min RHs range between 5-10%. Overnight Max RHs will
generally range between 20-30% with locally higher values across
the western districts. Winds will favor typical diurnal tendencies
with periodic afternoon gusts to around 15 mph. Temperatures will
be near to slightly above normal over the next couple of days
before peaking on Friday. An unsettled weather pattern then takes
shape for this upcoming weekend and will lead to cooler
temperatures and increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
by Sunday.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Frieders
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Frieders