El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

467
FXUS65 KPSR 032310
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
410 PM MST Fri Apr 3 2026

.UPDATE...00Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly above normal temperatures will persist today before warming
  closer to 10 degrees above normal over the weekend and early
  next week as high pressure builds over the region.

- Some gusty northerly winds will linger along the Lower Colorado River
  Valley through this afternoon.

- There is a chance of a few showers and storms Sunday and Monday
  across the eastern Arizona high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Latest water vapor satellite imagery and objective analysis
depict a potent upper-level shortwave trough traversing the
northern Plains while upper-level ridging is encroaching into the
Pacific Northwest. This pattern configuration is leading to a
strong surface high pressure across the Great Basin Region and
thus strong northerly winds along the Lower Colorado River Valley
area, where gusts in excess of 35-50 mph along with localized
dust channels were observed earlier this morning. The overall
winds will gradually diminish through the rest of the afternoon as
the pressure gradient relaxes. Afternoon high temperatures will
top out in the mid to upper 80s across the lower deserts, which
will be about 3-6 degrees above normal for early April.

Heading into the weekend, as the overall ridge axis sets up along
the interior western CONUS and upper-level height fields rise in
response, temperatures will be on warming trend. Afternoon highs
on Saturday will generally top out near 90 degrees before warming
even further into the middle 90s for Sunday. Undercutting the
ridge will be a weak shortwave trough moving in from the
subtropical Pacific on Sunday while at the same time, easterly
low-level flow will cause an increase in moisture across the
eastern third of AZ with model guidance indicating PWATs rising to
200% of normal. This will likely be enough to spark some showers
and isolated storms across the eastern third of AZ Sunday
afternoon/evening, mainly across the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains. However, some isolated convection cannot be ruled out
across eastern Gila County, where NBM PoPs range between 10-20%.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
Moisture introduced into the region Sunday will linger through
Monday as PWATs will continue to remain near 200% of normal. Thus,
there will likely be another round of afternoon convection,
focused mainly across far eastern AZ. Otherwise, with upper-level
ridging remaining situated over the region, temperatures through
the middle of the week will remain steady state with readings
generally in the 90s across the lower deserts. By late next week,
models are hinting at another troughing feature approaching the
region, which will likely cause a cooling trend with temperatures
retreating into the 80s for afternoon highs.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2310Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major aviation concerns are expected during the TAF period.
Winds will follow a familiar directional progression with the only
differences being an earlier than usual switch to an E`rly
component and directions favoring a more NE direction that what is
typically seen. However, terrain affects may shift winds back to
W`rly component overnight, mainly at KPHX and KIWA, though some
uncertainty remains regarding this atypical shift. Regardless,
E`rly winds will be favored once again Saturday morning, with
perhaps a brief wind of marginal breeziness during that timeframe.
Some gusts around 20 kts also cannot be ruled out for KSDL and
KDVT this evening. SCT to perhaps BKN skies will be common
throughout the forecast with bases remaining aoa 18k ft.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Strong winds will continue to subside through this evening with
only lingering gusts around 20-25 kts at KBLH being the main
aviation concerns over the next 24 hours. NW/WNW`rly directions
will be favored at each site through night before veering to the
N/NNE late Saturday morning. SCT to sometimes BKN bases aoa 18k ft
will be common over the region through most of the TAF period
before clearing takes place Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist
during the next several days. Afternoon MinRHs will fall to near
10% through Saturday before increasing slightly on Sunday and
Monday as moisture increases. The increase in moisture will result
in some shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly confined to the
eastern third of AZ. Some gusty northerly winds will linger
through this afternoon along the vicinity of the Lower Colorado
River Valley, resulting in some elevated fire weather concerns.
Lighter winds are expected on Saturday before easterly winds
increase Sunday morning, particularly across the higher terrain
areas of south-central AZ. Lighter winds return for early next
week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lojero
LONG TERM...Lojero/Ryan
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero