El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS65 KPSR 080932
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
232 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot temperatures will continue through the rest of this week
  resulting in areas of major Heat Risk and Extreme Heat Warnings
  through Thursday across lower desert locations.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will also continue over
  higher terrain areas of eastern Arizona today and to a lesser
  degree for Thursday and Friday.

- The weather pattern will become very favorable for moisture
  import and more widespread thunderstorm activity by early next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
A modestly strong high pressure ridge continues to impact the
region bringing hot temperatures and areas of Major HeatRisk. The
ridge is becoming more elongated with a new ridge center forecast
to form off the coast of southern California later today. Despite
this subtle shift, H5 heights over the Desert Southwest will
remain stable between 593-596dm through most of Thursday. Forecast
highs peak today and/or Thursday across the region, ranging from
110-114 degrees across the south-central Arizona lower deserts to
112-117 degrees across southeast California and far southwest
Arizona. Overnight lows will also be very uncomfortable as low
level moisture has increased enough to prevent efficient nocturnal
cooling. Lows over the next couple of nights will range from
around 80 degrees over the cooler rural lower desert areas to as
warm as the lower 90s in central Phoenix. Extreme Heat Warnings
remain in effect for the bulk of the area through Thursday
evening.

Moisture within the region has improved since last week, but it
mostly lies on the eastern fringes of the ridge as dry air
continues to advect northeastward through southern California
into the western 2/3rds of Arizona. Moisture profiles across the
area are expected to remain stable today, but then somewhat
decrease Thursday into Friday. Today`s daytime convection should
be very similar to what occurred yesterday with most of the
scattered showers and storms remaining east of the Globe area, but
another modest outflow is likely to form and attempt to push into
eastern portions of the Phoenix area. Decreasing shower and storm
coverage is then expected for Thursday as moisture decreases
slightly and the upper level pattern becomes less favorable for
deeper convection.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/...
The weather pattern will undergo a noticeable shift Friday and
through the weekend as the high pressure ridge quickly tracks
northeastward, with the center reaching Utah Saturday. The ridge
is then forecast to expand, strengthen, and become the main driver
of strong moisture advection back into the Desert Southwest going
into next week.

Friday should be another mostly dry day with hot temperatures
still being the main concern across the area. Forecast highs are
shown dipping a couple of degrees, but lower desert highs are
still likely to top 110 degrees with small pockets of Major
HeatRisk remaining, mainly across southeast California. Very
limited convective potential on Friday should be confined to
southeast Arizona with less than 10% PoPs across our CWA.

As the high center finally shifts to our north into Saturday, it
should first open up eastern and southern Arizona to an easterly
moisture fetch. Moisture is still likely to be fairly limited on
Saturday with afternoon convection currently favored more across
southeast Arizona, but once the steering flow shifts out of the
east moisture advection and storm chances are expected to spread
westward through the rest of Arizona starting Sunday. Although
forecast uncertainty remains fairly high going into next week,
ensembles generally agree we will enter a period of active monsoon
weather. The subtropical high is favored to stay positioned over
the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies for much of next week
which will allow for fairly persistent moist easterly flow into
the Desert Southwest. Ensemble member forecast PWATs show a wide
spread, but also a meaningful average increase likely pushing
past 1.3-1.4" starting Sunday. Forecast PoPs increase into a
20-40% range starting Sunday and generally stay there through the
first half of next week. Any notable easterly waves moving
through the flow will surely help drive our convective potential,
but pinpointing those this far out is a dubious proposition.
Outside of the expected increase in monsoon storm activity,
temperatures should slip further toward seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0900Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

Gusty outflow winds this evening from distant storms will be the
main aviation weather issue throughout the TAF period. Through this
afternoon, the overall wind pattern will follow the typical diurnal
tendencies with light easterly to variable winds early this morning
shifting out of the west by the mid/late morning hours with some
occasional afternoon gusts in the upper teens to around 20 kts.
Thereafter, thunderstorm activity materializing well to the east and
southeast of Phoenix is likely to send an outflow boundary from the
south and east early this evening with potential peak gusts between
20-25 kts. Winds should diminish a few hours after the outflow
passage with easterly winds prevailing through the overnight hours.
FEW mid to high level clouds will persist through the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No major aviation weather concerns under clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, southeasterly winds will prevail
throughout most of the period with the exception of a temporary
shift out of the west early this evening. At KBLH, winds will
generally fluctuate between the south-southeast to south-southwest
with occasional afternoon gusts between 20-25 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Gusty and erratic thunderstorm winds with isolated lightning over
the far eastern districts the next few afternoons will be the main
fire weather concern. Outside of any potential outflows, winds
should favor light and diurnal trends with typical afternoon
breeziness around 20 mph. Afternoon RH values between 10-15% will be
common across the region. Overnight recoveries will offer only
limited to modest relief as MaxRH values range generally between 20-
45%. Temperatures are expected to run well above normal through the
middle of the week, with the lowest elevations reaching between 110-
115 degrees. A decrease in monsoon activity is likely late week,
before picking up again and becoming more widespread by early next
week. Moisture levels and humidities should also improve
considerably by early next week, alleviating much of the fire
weather concerns.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ530>534-
     536>551-553>555-559-560-562.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ562-564>570.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman