El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

803
FXUS65 KPSR 101744
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1044 AM MST Sun May 10 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Extreme Heat Warning will be in effect for the Phoenix Metro
  from late this morning through Tuesday and for portions of the
  western deserts today and Monday.

- Moderate HeatRisk will impact the majority of the area through
  the first half of the week with isolated major HeatRisk through
  Tuesday.

- Monday will be the hottest day with lower desert high
  temperatures as hot as 110 degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Current objective analysis shows a weak shortwave trough tracking
through the Four Corners area, while a reinforcing ridge of high
pressure is already nudging in behind the trough. As the ridge
moves directly overhead later today lasting through Monday,
temperatures will continue to heat up. Extreme Heat Warnings go
in effect late this morning for the Phoenix metro and across
western Imperial County with highs averaging 103-107 degrees
across the lower deserts. As heights aloft peak near
climatological records tonight into Monday, the air mass will heat
up even more with NBM forecast temperatures ticking up another
3 degrees or so, averaging 106-109 degrees. Monday`s readings
should fall just short of daily records and bring more widespread
Major HeatRisk. Additional Extreme Heat Warning areas for Monday
include much of the Lower CO River Valley, Yuma, and El Centro.
Expect continued clear skies through Monday and seasonably low RHs
reaching the single digits during the afternoon hours.

Model guidance continues to show a weak shortwave trough
developing west of Baja by Monday before tracking northward
Tuesday into Wednesday across California. This disturbance will
somewhat push the upper level ridge to our east, but the ridge
axis will remain close enough on Tuesday to keep near record high
temperatures in place across the eastern half of Arizona. Forecast
highs Tuesday for Phoenix do drop off a couple of degrees, but
most locations within Phoenix will still reach 105 degrees and the
Extreme Heat Warning will remain in place through early Tuesday
evening. Southeast California will be much closer to the passing
disturbance allowing for a more noticeable cooldown with highs
dropping to 102-105 degrees. Winds will also become quite breezy
Tuesday afternoon focused across the Lower CO River Valley. Gusts
of 25-30 mph and low RHs during the afternoon hours should promote
elevated fire weather conditions across the Lower CO River Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The latter half of the coming week will involve a larger Pacific
system moving into northern California on Wednesday displacing the
ridge over our region well to the east by Thursday. Wednesday
should be a bit of a transition day as heights really start to
lower, but daytime highs may react more to the influx of upper
level moisture and clouds. Forecast highs are still shown to top
100 degrees, but on average should be between 100-103 degrees
across the lower deserts. As the flow turns from the south on
Wednesday to more out of the west on Thursday, any moisture and
clouds will get pushed to the east out of the region. The Pacific
system is then favored to move east northeastward through
northern Nevada into Wyoming on Thursday, but it will also help to
further depress heights over our region lasting through Friday.
Models are now trending slightly cooler late this week with highs
potentially dipping into the mid to upper 90s on Friday. The
outlook for next weekend favors temperatures warming back up to
100 or just over 100 degrees as a brief ridge moves through the
region, while dry conditions and generally clear skies prevail.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1744Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds
will follow typical diurnal tendencies and speeds will generally
be aob 10 kts. However this afternoon/evening could see speeds
periodically above 10 kts with gusts near 20 kts. Skies will
remain mostly clear for the TAF period.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period. At KIPL,
winds will be SE`rly through the afternoon turning W`rly by this
evening for the over night hours. At KBLH, winds will be S/SW`rly
early this afternoon through the remainder of the period. Overall
wind speeds will be aob 10 kts. Skies will remain clear throughout
the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Hot and dry conditions will prevail through the first half of this
week with lower desert highs averaging 105 degrees. Minimum
humidity levels will mostly fall into the single digits each day
with only very minimal improvement across the eastern districts
going into midweek. Overnight recoveries will remain poor to fair
averaging 20-35%. Winds will be light and diurnal today, before
elevated easterly winds with gusts to around 25 mph impact the
eastern districts Monday morning. Tuesday will bring more of a
predominant southerly wind, particularly across the western
districts where afternoon gusts of 25-30 mph will be possible.
The combination of the hot temperatures, very low RHs, dry fuels,
and breezy conditions focused during the late afternoon hours
should result in elevated fire weather conditions for portions of
the area.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ530-
     532.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ537-540-
     542>544-546-548-550-551.

CA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ567-
     569-570.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ562-563-566.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Ryan
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman