El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

008
FXUS65 KPSR 081157
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
457 AM MST Wed Apr 8 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure aloft will result in dry conditions and above normal
  temperatures through the end of this week

- An approaching weather system will result in increased cloud cover,
  breezy conditions, and cooling temperatures by this weekend

- Scattered light shower activity will also be possible late
  Saturday into early Sunday, mainly over the AZ high terrain

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Friday/...
Latest GOES-18 mid-lvl water vapor imagery depicts an amplified
ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Great Basin.
The ridge axis is projected to slide ewd over the 4-Corners region
by this afternoon. In turn, 500 mb hghts are expected to climb to
around 576-578 over the forecast area. Hghts of this magnitude
are not particularly unusual for this time of year, however
thermal profiles in the lower atmosphere are still rather warm
with 850 mb temperatures approaching 20-22C. This will equate to
sfc highs reaching the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts
which is a good 10+ degrees above normal for early April. A few
locations along and near the Lower Colorado River Valley may even
approach 100 degrees this afternoon. Dry and tranquil conditions
will continue into tonight with low temperatures settling into the
low to mid 60s across the lower deserts and mid 50s in the
foothills and mountains.

On Thursday and Friday, the ridge axis is expected to shift ewd into
the Southern Plains while a trough of low pressure approaches the
West Coast. As this occurs, our region will remain between both
features which will result in increasing southwesterly flow over the
forecast area. Deterministic guidance shows 500mb hghts falling
from 576-578 dm on Thursday to 573-576 dm on Friday which will
result in lower desert temperatures cooling slightly from the mid
to upper 90s on Thursday to the upper 80s and lower 90s on Friday.
Due to the increasing 500 mb hght gradient, there will be
increased breeziness both days, especially across SE California
and SW Arizona where gusts could reach 20-30 mph at times.

&&

.LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
There still remains a decent amount of uncertainty amongst
ensemble members regarding the track and strength of the weather
system this weekend once it moves onshore. A majority of the GEFS
and ENS clusters are now showing a much weaker and faster moving
trough that will lift into the Great Basin region after it moves
onshore. The result of this northern shift in the models is now
being reflected in the NBM PoP and QPF fields which have both been
significantly reduced in the latest run. Although PoPs remain
around 40-50% across the AZ high terrain late Saturday into
Sunday, chances across the lower deserts are now only around
20-25% at most. The main impacts with this system will likely be
gusty winds due to an increased 500- 700 mb hght gradient setting
up over the region. Winds will gust around 20-30 mph both Saturday
and Sunday afternoon, with locally higher gusts around 30-35 mph
in SE California. The arrival of negative 500 mb hght anomalies
and thicker cloud cover will allow temperatures to decrease to
around seasonal norms this weekend. Highs will fall back into the
80s (upper 60s to mid 70s) across the lower deserts (higher
terrain) on Saturday and cooling to near to even slightly below
normal region-wide on Sunday.

Ensemble members and deterministic guidance continues to show a
follow-on system arriving early next week with a deeper trough
progressing through the Intermountain West. This trough will
reinforce negative hght anomalies over the entire forecast area
and promote near to below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday,
with afternoon highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s (lower 70s)
across the lower deserts (higher terrain). At this time, the best
moisture and lift associated with this system will be focused well
north of our region, and thus any rain chances will remain
relegated to the higher terrain of N AZ.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1155Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather issues will exist through the TAF period under
mostly clear skies. Winds will continue to follow their typical
diurnal/nocturnal variations with usual timing of wind shifts and
speeds generally under 12kt. Extended periods of light
variability is also expected during the overnight and morning
hours. KIPL could have some occasional sun downer wind gusts into
the upper teens this evening and into the overnight hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and well above normal temperatures will persist
through the end of this week. MinRHs will range from 10-15%
today and Thursday before increasing above 15% starting on
Friday. Overnight recovery will generally range from poor to fair
across the region through the rest of this week. Winds will
be around 10 mph or less today, but are expected to increase
across the western districts Thursday and Friday. A weather system
will move into the region this weekend, resulting in breezy to
locally windy conditions, cooler temperatures, and much improved
moisture. Scattered showers will be possible mainly over the
higher terrain of southcentral AZ, but CWR will remain low <30%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Berislavich
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno