El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS65 KPSR 280550
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1050 PM MST Fri Mar 27 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A backdoor surface front will progress through central Arizona
  late tonight, resulting in strong easterly winds with gusts
  approaching 40 to 50 mph across the foothills and high terrain
  areas east of Phoenix.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will continue to challenge daily
  records through this weekend.

- The late morning through early afternoon hours may be dangerous,
  especially for any strenuous outdoor activities without proper
  hydration and frequent breaks in the shade, or air conditioning.

- The dominant ridge of high pressure should finally begin to
  break down and push east of the region by Sunday, promoting a
  cooling trend heading into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure which has brought
record breaking heat to our region is still the predominant
feature over the Desert Southwest today. Despite an ewd shift in
the ridge axis, the western periphery of the ridge is still robust
over AZ as 500 mb hghts remain between 584-586 dam. This will
result in another afternoon of record breaking highs in the upper
90s to lower 100s across the lower deserts of AZ and southeast CA.
So far Phoenix has seen 12 record highs that were tied or broken
this month and we could see at least 3-4 more record highs through
this weekend.

Heading into tonight, a particularly strong surface high (1037-
1040mb) moving through the Southern Plains will push a backdoor
front through eastern and central AZ. The front will likely reach
the eastern portions of the Phoenix Metro by midnight. Gusty post-
frontal winds up to 30-35 mph will be possible across the lower
deserts and even as high as 45-50 mph in the adjacent foothills
and high terrain of E Maricopa and S Gila Counties. A Wind
Advisory has been issued for much of the high terrain east of
Phoenix from 11 PM MST tonight to 11 AM MST Saturday. The Wind
Advisory also includes portions of the lower deserts including N
Pinal County where blowing dust channels could cause reductions in
visibilities below 3 miles at times. The sfc gradient will
gradually slacken through Saturday afternoon, allowing winds
to quickly diminish.

In addition to the gusty winds Saturday, there will be an initial
push of boundary layer moisture into the region from the east and
south in the morning, however dew points are only expected to climb
into the mid 30s. Unfortunately, the backdoor front will have little
affect on temperatures Saturday afternoon as highs are still
expected to reach the mid to upper 90s across southcentral AZ and
the lower 100s along and W of the Lower Colorado River Valley.
Therefore daily records will likely be reached again in Phoenix,
Yuma, and El Centro.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Heading into Sunday a better push of moisture into the region is
expected as high pressure shifts further east to the Gulf States and
southerly to southwesterly flow taps into some subtropical moisture
from the south. Ensemble members continue to show PWATs increasing
to around 200-250% of normal across AZ by late Sunday into Monday.
The increased cloud cover in combination with the high shifted
further east will result in further cooling temperatures. The caveat
of coming out of a wave of historical heat is that even a little bit
of cooling will still result in near record temperatures. Afternoon
high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 90s across
the lower deserts both on Sunday and Monday and may still tie or
break daily record highs.

The influx of moisture late this weekend and early next week will
also result in some low-end shower and thunderstorm chances, with
best chances across the AZ high terrain to the north and east of the
Phoenix Metro. NBM PoPs remain quite low for the lower deserts of
central and southwest AZ, generally under 10%, despite the abundance
of moisture. With the unseasonably hot temperatures, the lower
troposphere and PBL will still be pretty dry. So, showers that do
develop may mostly fall as virga. Additionally, the forcing will be
very limited Sunday through Monday. There is at least some guidance
support for some mid-level confluence and convergence that could
better the chances for scattered showers or a band of light showers.
Most global ensemble guidance has the best instability Monday (few
hundred J/kg of CAPE), but with the minimal forcing it may be
difficult to realize any instability to get thunderstorms. With the
dry sub-cloud air, any convective or stronger shower or storm that
develops will be capable of producing gusty outflow boundaries, but
the hope of outflow boundaries generating new activity is pretty low
given LCL heights likely remaining fairly high for this time of year.

Beyond Monday, ensemble guidance continues to show an East Pacific
trough moving through the region during the middle of next week.
There are still uncertainties regarding the exact track and strength
of this system. However, it currently looks to drop H5 heights into
a 570-575dam range during the middle of the week. As a result
afternoon high temperatures are forecast to fall back into the 80s
by Wednesday, which is near to slightly above normal for this time
of year. The last time our region saw afternoon high temperatures in
the 80s was on March 11, which will have been 3 weeks by next
Wednesday. Additionally, this trough will bring additional shower
and storm chances to the region, but as of now primarily favoring
northern AZ. The NBM currently has the best rain chances (20-30%)
across the higher terrain to the north and east of Phoenix. The
latitudinal progression of the trough through the region will
influence whether the rain chances increase across the southern
deserts (a deeper southerly track) for the beginning of April.
Stay tuned for future updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
A dry front will push through the Phoenix Metro over the next
couple hours and lead to an increase in east winds. Easterly winds
will be elevated through tonight and Saturday morning. Speeds
around 8-15 kts are expected with occasional gusts to 20-25 kts.
Gusts will become more consistent after 15-16Z and may gust as
high as 25-30 kts. Windblown dust may locally reduce visibility at
times at KIWA and create some slantwise visibility impacts after
sunrise at KPHX Saturday morning. Winds will subside Saturday
afternoon by 21-22Z at all terminals and maintain and easterly
direction through the end of the TAF period. SCT to BKN mid and
high clouds will persist through Saturday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Wind speeds under 10 kts are expected at both terminals through
most of the TAF period. Westerly winds at KIPL now will shift
easterly Saturday morning, with some light variability. Confidence
in wind directions at KBLH is lower, but will favor a S/SW
component through tonight. An E/SE component is then anticipated
Saturday morning before shifting S/SW in the afternoon with some
breezes to 10 kts. SCT to BKN mid and high clouds will persist
through Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Unseasonably hot temperatures with very dry conditions will
continue through at least this weekend. MinRH values will bottom
out around 5-15% today before increasing to 10-20% starting
tomorrow. MaxRHs will follow a similar uptrend with readings close
to 20-40% the next few mornings before rising up closer to a
40-60% range by the beginning of next week. Moisture levels will
be highest Sunday into Monday and Wednesday with some moisture
fluxes into the region. Winds will be light for the rest of today
and follow typical diurnal tendencies. However, strong easterly
winds (gusts 25-35 mph) are expected to materialize late this
evening, across southcentral AZ as a cold front encroaches on the
region. The front will continue to progress through central AZ
late tonight through Saturday morning. The strongest winds will
reside across the foothills and high terrain areas east of Phoenix
where gusts will reach upwards of 40+ mph. Winds should gradually
subside from midday through the afternoon Saturday, but will
remain out of the E-SE. Although minimum RH values are forecast to
stay above the critical threshold (15%) most of the day, there
may still be a period of elevated, to near critical, fire weather
conditions Saturday due primarily to the widespread breezy easterly
winds and unseasonable hot temperatures. There will be at slight
chances for rain (10-30%) Monday through Wednesday, but the CWR
will be under 10%. Any showers that do develop will be capable of
producing gusty and erratic outflow winds, which could impact any
existing fires.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Daily record highs through this week:

Date      Phoenix         Yuma         El Centro
----      -------         ----         ---------
3/27     98 in 1986    100 in 1986     99 in 1988
3/28     95 in 2015     98 in 2015     98 in 2015
3/29     97 in 2015    100 in 1897     97 in 1969

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Wind Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for AZZ547-549-551>553-
     555>558-560>563.

CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Benedict/Berislavich
AVIATION...Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich/Salerno
CLIMATE...RW/18