El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

649
FXUS65 KPSR 302025
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
125 PM MST Mon Mar 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will gradually cool through the middle of the week,
but only from record breaking levels to a more typical above normal
threshold.

- Isolated showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will be
possible through Wednesday, primarily focused over higher terrain of
south-central Arizona.

- Temperatures will warm again by early next week potentially
approaching record highs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
A complex flow pattern exists over the SW Conus early this afternoon
with a broad trough/quasi-zonal jet emanating from the East Pacific
containing several low amplitude shortwaves aimed towards the
forecast area. One such wave was lifting through northern Arizona
today while the southern Arizona pattern becomes even more
complicated by the presence of nearly stationary MCV`s over
northeast Sonora. Shallow 7-8 g/kg mixing ratios continue to hover
over much of the CWA with 12Z PWATs likely nearing 1.00", or near a
late March climatological maximum. While deep layer westerly flow
will thin boundary moisture closer to 6 g/kg this afternoon,
forecast BUFR soundings suggest MLCape ~500 J/kg with minimal CinH.
However with ascent mechanisms becoming absent across the CWA this
afternoon, there appears to be little impetus towards deep
convection, and recent HREF output depicts very limited activity in
and around the forecast area. While some gusty winds could be
generated by any convective elements given DCape nearing 1500 J/kg,
strengthening deep westerly winds through the lower troposphere
should disrupt any organized outflow boundaries fairly rapidly.

Jet energy with additional embedded shortwaves will enter the region
Tuesday and Wednesday providing the next modest chances of
accumulating rainfall. Copious amounts of mid/upper level moisture
will stream into the Southwest starting tomorrow with extended
periods of thick cloud cover. While periods of ample synoptic scale
lift will be present across the area during this time frame, paltry
low level moisture with mixing ratios falling below 5 g/kg will
limit the ability for saturated midlevel ascent to materialize into
rain reaching the surface. Instead, widespread virga should be
common with only a few isolated showers surviving, and better
chances for accumulation focused over higher terrain areas given a
smaller sub-cloud dry layer. The best chance for accumulating
showers still appears to arrive late Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. NBM POP output seems to be exhibiting an overzealousness in
both raw magnitude and expanse, and have trimmed back values in both
respects. Otherwise, prolonged periods of thick clouds could easily
narrow the diurnal temperature spread and retard afternoon highs
below the mandated NBM forecast such that readings Tuesday may
struggle to reach 90F, and middle 80s on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The weather pattern will shift once again later this week with upper
level troughing setting up across the central U.S. and a ridging
building off the West Coast before eventually sliding into our
region by the weekend. Dry west northwesterly flow takes over across
the Desert Southwest starting Thursday with moisture levels lowering
and temperatures initially staying fairly stable as a weather system
passes by to our north. NBM forecast highs remain in the mid to
upper 80s for Thursday and Friday, but this will not last long as
the ridge will be entering our region by Saturday. Fortunately,
guidance favors the ridge already weakening as it moves into our
region, but it will be enough to push daytime highs back into the
low to mid 90s over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1735Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Light and variable winds will transition to a southwesterly
component midday, with sustained speeds around 9-12 kts and a few
afternoon gusts into the teens. Some hi-res guidance show a few
isolated showers/storms developing later this afternoon south of the
Phoenix area and across parts of the higher terrain to the north.
Dry conditions are likely to persist for the terminals with very
little confidence in outflows reaching the TAF sites from any
distant storms. Otherwise, SCT-BKN mid and high clouds will continue
through the period.


Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major aviation weather concerns are expected through the next 24
hours. Light and variable winds at KIPL will transition to a
westerly component this afternoon, with sustained speeds around 9-12
kts before weakening this evening. At KBLH, S to SW winds will
persist with gusts increasing to around 20 kts this afternoon before
subsiding during the evening. Otherwise, SCT-BKN mid and high clouds
will persist.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moisture levels have improved helping to boost humidities and MinRHs
to around 20%. The better moisture has also helped to bring back low-
end rain chances with a few isolated thunderstorms still possible
today across the eastern districts. Isolated rain chances should
continue for the eastern districts through Wednesday, but
thunderstorm chances will mostly end after today. Outside of any
convective induced winds, expect typical spring afternoon upslope
gusts 20-25 mph. The near record breaking temperatures will cool
slightly by Tuesday and more so starting Wednesday. Rain chances
will completely come to an by Thursday as gradual drying and warming
occurs. Daytime breeziness will also continue through Friday with
fire weather conditions worsening as MinRHs drop to below 15%.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Smith
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman