El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

669
FXUS65 KPSR 122255
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
355 PM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will prevail across the entire
  region this weekend and into next week.

- Record setting highs and warm lows will be possible across the
  lower deserts including Phoenix today through Monday.

- Dry and tranquil weather will continue through next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An abnormally strong ridge of high pressure will continue to
encompass the Desert Southwest this weekend and into early next
week. Positive 500 mb height anomalies will overspread the entire
forecast area, maxing out around 582-584 dam on Saturday and Sunday
which is well above the 90th percentile of climatology for mid
December. The strength of this ridge will result in surface
temperatures reaching record breaking territory with lower desert
highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows in the mid 50s.
Currently at Phoenix Sky Harbor there is a 90% chance of setting a
new record high and 60% chance of a new record warm low on Sunday
and around a 50-60% chance of reaching the record high on Monday.
Yuma and El Centro could also set record highs and/or warm lows
although the chances are slightly lower than Phoenix. The only
sensible change in weather conditions across the state this weekend
will be a slight increase in upper-level cloud cover, although this
is expected to have little to no impact on temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Very little will change as far as the weather pattern is expected
for next week with any weather systems staying across the northern
tier states. The very weak shortwave trough cutting through the
ridge later Monday into Tuesday should knock temperatures down a
couple of degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday, but another ridge
will already be rebuilding to our west. This next ridge should
maintain H5 heights of 580-584dm over our region through the rest
of next week with dry westerly flow persisting under generally
clear skies. Depending on the strength of the ridge later next
week, we may again see highs at or just over 80 degrees at some
point later next week into the following weekend. Long range
guidance is starting to allude to a potential pattern shift by
around Christmas which may bring a larger trough farther to the
south along the West Coast. If this were to occur, it could bring
an end to our unseasonably warm and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 2300Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through the TAF period
under FEW-SCT high cirrus decks. Light winds (generally AOB 7
kts) will follow a familiar diurnal pattern, with extended periods
of variability to nearly calm conditions, especially during
diurnal transitions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A strong ridge of high pressure will continue to bring unseasonably
warm and dry conditions to the region through this weekend and
into early next week. High temperatures in the upper 70s to the
lower 80s will be common across the lower deserts, or around 10
to 15 degrees above daily normals. Winds will continue to follow
typical diurnal trends with occasional afternoon breeziness across
the AZ high terrain. Daily MinRHs will range between 20-25% while
overnight recoveries run generally between 45-75%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/12   79 (2010)
12/13   82 (2010)
12/14   78 (2010)
12/15   79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman/Salerno
CLIMATE...Benedict