El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

991
FXUS65 KPSR 120857
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
157 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures will be seen across the region
  through at least the weekend with some locations flirting with
  record highs.

- Dry and tranquil conditions will prevail through at least next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An unseasonably strong upper level ridge remains positioned over
and just to the west of our region with H5 heights easily into the
90th percentile of climatology. The high heights have allowed for
a gradual warming of the boundary layer with most lower desert
locales reaching into the upper 70s yesterday to as warm as the
lower 80s across portions of Imperial County. Little to no change
in the atmospheric pattern is seen through Sunday with
temperatures remaining stable at between 10-15 degrees above
normal. Daily records could be reached or broken for Phoenix,
Yuma, and El Centro, especially those of which that are only
around 80 degrees. For the Phoenix area, NBM forecast highs show a
peak on Sunday with highs between 80-82 degrees, despite some
expected higher level clouds. Monday`s highs are not likely to
change much despite a very weak and dry shortwave trough beginning
to cut through the upper level ridge. Overnight lows through the
weekend will mostly range from the mid 40s in more rural desert
areas to the mid 50s within urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY/...
Very little will change as far as the weather pattern is expected
for next week with any weather systems staying across the northern
tier states. The very weak shortwave trough cutting through the
ridge later Monday into Tuesday should knock temperatures down a
couple of degrees for Tuesday and Wednesday, but another ridge
will already be rebuilding to our west. This next ridge should
maintain H5 heights of 580-584dm over our region through the rest
of next week with dry westerly flow persisting under generally
clear skies. Depending on the strength of the ridge later next
week, we may again see highs at or just over 80 degrees at some
point later next week into the following weekend. Long range
guidance is starting to allude to a potential pattern shift by
around Christmas which may bring a larger trough farther to the
south along the West Coast. If this were to occur, it could bring
an end to our unseasonably warm and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0855Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather concerns will exist through Friday night.
Light winds (generally AOB 7 kts) will follow a familiar diurnal
pattern, with extended periods of variability to nearly calm
conditions. Clear skies will be followed by FEW-SCT high cirrus
decks moving over the region later this afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Strong high pressure will continue to dominate across the region
through at least the weekend bringing unseasonably warm and dry
conditions. High temperatures in the upper 70s to the lower 80s
will be common across the lower deserts, or at least 10 degrees
above normals. Winds will continue to follow familiar diurnal
trends with occasional afternoon upslope breeziness. Daily MinRHs
will be between 20-25% while overnight recoveries run generally
between 45-75%.

&&

.CLIMATE...Daily Record Highs

   Phoenix
   -------
12/12   79 (2010)
12/13   82 (2010)
12/14   78 (2010)
12/15   79 (1969)

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kuhlman
LONG TERM...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Whittock
FIRE WEATHER...Kuhlman
CLIMATE...Benedict