El Mirage, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

883
FXUS65 KPSR 261001
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
301 AM MST Sun Apr 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A mostly dry weather system is currently moving through the
  region leading to breezy to windy conditions, below normal
  temperatures, and a few light showers over higher terrain areas.

- Temperatures will warm early next week, rising to slightly above
  normal starting midweek. Hotter temperatures with lower desert
  highs well into the nineties look possible by next weekend.

- A potential weather system late next week may bring chances for
  showers to the area, but widespread rainfall is not
  anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Early this morning objective analysis and upper-level water vapor
satellite imagery revels a shortwave trough moving through southern
CA. This shortwave will move northeast, dragging a cold front with
it, through the day and exit the region later tonight. Out ahead of
this trough, and associated cold front, PWATs have increased to
around 0.7" (up from 0.4" around 24 hours earlier). The increase
PWATs and vorticity advection ahead of the shortwave have resulted
in some light shower activity mainly across northern AZ. There were
areas of sprinkles that moved through central AZ (including the
Phoenix Metro) late last night, but those have moved into the higher
terrain in eastern AZ. The light showers and sprinkles in eastern AZ
are expected to come to an end my the mid-morning hours. No
additional shower/sprinkle activity is expected for our CWA
today. Light shower activity is expected to continue into the
afternoon across northern AZ.

In addition to the shower and sprinkles, this system has brought
breezy to locally windy conditions to the region. Wind gusts, across
much of Imperial County and central Riverside County are in the
range of 20-35 mph. These gusts are expected to continue for another
couple of hours, with some isolated gusts up around 40 mph still
possible. Therefore, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for this area
through 5am PDT. Wind gusts across the far SW corner of Imperial
County remain up around 50 mph early this morning. Wind gusts
upwards of 40-55 mph are expected to continue through the day and
slowly taper off through the evening. The Wind Advisory for this
location will remain in effect through 11pm PDT. Lastly, this system
will cool temperatures well below normal with afternoon highs only
forecasted to be in the mid to upper 70s to around 80 degrees across
the lower deserts and in the upper 60s to low 70s across the higher
terrain.

This system will exit the region later tonight leading to more quasi-
zonal flow over our region and an abundance of dry air, with PWATs
falling below 0.4". A secondary weak shortwave trough will move
through the region, even further north, late Monday into Tuesday.
Since this weak shortwave will be even further north than the
current one it won`t have too much of an effect on our area, however
it will keep winds slightly elevated with some gusts, during the
afternoon and early evening hours, in the 15-25 mph range, with some
higher gusts possible along ridgetops. Skies will be mostly clear
Monday and Tuesday, with some higher clouds starting to move in late
Tuesday. With mostly quasi-zonal flow, mostly clear skies, and a
very dry air mass in place temperatures will gradually warm Monday
and Tuesday. Afternoon high temperatures are forecasted to remain
below normal on Monday, but rebound back into the lower 80s (mid to
upper 70s) across the lower deserts (higher terrain). Temperatures
will then warm back to near normal on Tuesday, with afternoon high
temperatures forecasted to be in the mid to upper 80s (low 80s)
across the lower deserts (higher terrain).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY/...
Earlier in the week a piece of vorticity will come off the main
trough moving through Western CONUS and form a closed low in the
Pacific Ocean well off the coast of central CA. By the middle to end
of the week the closed low will progress eastward and eventually
move on shore during the later half of the workweek. As the low
approaches our region, models show it becoming an open wave and
getting wrapped into a shortwave trough moving through the Great
Basin region. While models have come into better agreement on the
timing of this system, looking like a Thursday event, they still
disagree on the exact strength and placement of this system. The
GEFS favors a slightly stronger and further south system whereas the
ECMWF ensemble favors a slightly weaker and more northern system.
If the GEFS were to come to fruition then that would lead to
better precipitation chances and cooler temperatures for our
region. Thursday has the largest temperature spread of this coming
week and is currently a 9 degree spread between the 25th and 75th
percentiles. Either way, it does look like temperatures will cool
and PWATs will increase on Thursday. The latest NBM/WPC PoPs are
around 10-20% across south-central AZ and 20-40% across the higher
terrain and foothills in eastern AZ.

Heading into the weekend the models are in pretty good agreement
on the overall synoptic pattern. The aforementioned low pressure
system will quickly exit the region on Friday with a low amplitude
ridge moving in behind it and building over our region. With
ridging building in heights aloft will be on the rise. H5 heights
look to go from 570-575 dm on Friday to 576-579 dm on Sunday.
Additionally with high pressure overhead skies will be mostly
clear. The ample sunshine and building high pressure will allow
for temperatures to warm well above normal next weekend. Highs are
currently forecasted to be in the mid to upper 90s (mid to upper
80s) across the lower deserts (higher terrain).

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0550Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
The main aviation concerns through the forecast period will be
periods of gusty SW-W winds and the potential for hazy conditions
and slantwise visibility restrictions from lofted dust. A cold
front will progress through the Phoenix Metro late tonight into
early Sunday morning, causing winds to become elevated near
sunrise. Winds will increase further by mid-morning, with gusts
peaking during the afternoon around 20-25 kts. CIGs will gradually
lower overnight, falling to around 7-8 kft early Sunday morning
mainly between 09-15Z. Skies should quickly clear from W to E by
mid-morning Sunday.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: T
The main aviation concerns at the SE California terminals will
continue to be gusty winds and lofted dust, particularly at KIPL.
Winds are expected to remain SW at KBLH and W at KIPL through the
entire forecast period. Gusts up to 25-30 kts will continue at
KIPL, while winds will subside somewhat at KBLH but remain
elevated overnight. Both terminals will experience a resurgence of
gusty winds by mid-morning Sunday with gusts reaching up to 30-35
kts at KIPL and around 25-30 kts at KBLH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A weather system will move through the region today leading to
another day of increased winds. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph are
expected across most locations, with gusts as high as 30-50 mph
across portions of SE CA. Wind gusts across SE CA will gradually
decrease through the day, but gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are still
expected during the afternoon and early evening hours. This system
will allow for minRHs to be in the 20-30% range before decreasing
back into a 5-20% range during the first half of the week (Tuesday
is currently forecasted to have the lowest RHs). Overnight
recoveries will be in the 40-70% range tonight, but lower to
30-60% tomorrow and 20-40% on Tuesday night. Winds will return to
more seasonable breezy afternoon conditions during the first half
of the week and are expected to fall short of creating widespread
elevated fire weather concerns. Another weather system looks to
move through the region during the later half of the workweek
leading to increased RH and slight chances for rain, however CWR
remains very low at this time.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ560-
     563>568.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ562.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM..Berislavich
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Salerno
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich