Drexel Heights, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS65 KTWC 140921
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
221 AM MST Mon Apr 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through much of the coming
work week, with afternoon breeziness. A weather system moving into
the Desert Southwest late in the week into the weekend will
provide cooler afternoon temperatures and even a slight chance of
light precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Water vapor imagery early this morning depicts an eastern Pacific
trough with a downstream channel of sub-tropical moisture aloft
over northern Sonora and Arizona. This moisture feed has produced
widespread upper level clouds, with dry air remaining in the low
to mid levels underneath. The previous evening KTWC RAOB depicts
a deep mixed layer up past 600mb, an indicator that any features
coming off this eastern Pacific trough in its current state will
have a difficult time producing precipitation.

Today will feature lighter winds than yesterday as southeastern
Arizona is between mid-level jet features. Still, breezy 10 to
near 20 mph winds out of the southwest will be common this
afternoon. As the air mass aloft hasn`t changed substantially,
neither will today`s high temperature forecast from yesterday with
highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s across desert locations.

A series of jet streaks ejecting from the eastern Pacific trough,
culminating with the trough crossing the region this weekend, will
bring breezy to windy conditions to southeastern Arizona through
much of this week. The first crosses late Monday to early Tuesday,
producing a very slight signal of light precipitation in central
to western Arizona by a few EC/GEPS ensemble members. Given
antecedent dry air and the weak amplitude of the crossing
shortwave, any measurable precipitation looks very unlikely. Then
Wednesday and Thursday a more substantial southwest-northeast
oriented jet sets up over the region. With dry air still in place,
this period should be the more likely time frame for near
critical to potentially critical fire weather conditions,
especially Thursday. The arrival of strong mid-level winds better
lines up with diurnal mixing potential on Thursday, but if they
arrive earlier Wednesday may also be a concern.

Thursday also begins a period of progressively cooler
temperatures that is expected through the weekend. The initially
closed eastern Pacific low is forecast to open and push east,
forced by a northern stream wave dropping south through the Great
Basin late Thursday through Friday. The trough axis should be
crossing the region on Saturday, which should bring chances for
precipitation. Though guidance is fairly consistent in this
feature, both inconsistency in its depth and a likely weak
moisture profile keeps any precipitation potential on the light
side. Breezy winds will accompany this transition each day
through the weekend, which again may produce near critical fire
weather conditions near the New Mexico border on Friday, depending
on how quick moisture pushes in. Temperatures should fall to
around normal by Friday and then below to potentially well below
normal on Saturday before rising again in the following days as
the trough exits east.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 15/12Z.

SCT-BKN clouds at 15k-20k feet, clearing after 15/06Z. Winds
becoming south to southwesterly and increasing to 9-15 kts after
14/17Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions and above normal temperatures are expected to
continue through much of the coming work week. Breezy south to
southwest winds of 10 to near 20 mph expected late morning through
early evening today with minimum relative humidities of 8 to 12
percent in lower elevations and 12 to 18 percent in mountain
areas. Similar conditions are expected Tuesday. Winds may see an
uptick Wednesday and then especially Thursday. Though temperatures
come down somewhat Thursday, critical fire weather conditions look
more likely with near critical conditions Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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