Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

576
FXUS65 KTWC 112050
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
150 PM MST Fri Apr 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Record breaking heat is likely today under a strong ridge of high
pressure aloft. Well above normal temperatures are expected to
continue through much of next week. Breezy conditions can be
expected this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Strong high pressure has built over the region, with the upper
level ridge axis basically directly over us today. The heights and
thicknesses are resulting in abnormally warm temperatures today.
As of this writing, the temperature at Tucson has touched 100
degrees. This breaks the record for earliest 100 degree day on
record, with the previous earliest 100 degree record being April
19, 1989. Elsewhere, temperatures should mostly be in the 90s to
lower 100s across the valleys.

The upper ridge will drift eastward Saturday into Sunday,
resulting in modestly cooler but still well above normal
temperatures. During this time, look for valley high temperatures
to remain generally in the 90s. Perhaps more notably, an
approaching upper trough over the West Coast will result in
increased southwest flow across the region. 15 to 25 mph winds
with afternoon relative humidity values dropping to 3 percent will
create critical fire weather conditions. This is especially
compounded by record dry conditions impacting fuels over the
previous months. In coordination with surrounding offices, a Red
Flag Warning has been issued for both Saturday and Sunday for
southeast Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/00Z.

FEW-SCT high clouds over the next 24 hours. NW to SW surface winds
6 to 12 kts this afternoon, becoming light overnight. SW winds
increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts after 12/18z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and unseasonably hot temperatures are expected
today through much of next week, while increasing winds will
likely produce critical fire weather conditions this weekend.
Minimum relative humidities will be down to around 3 percent in
desert locations and under 10 percent in mountains through the
weekend, while winds should increase to 15 to 25 mph and gusts to
35 mph. Even in areas that see the lighter end of the wind speed
spectrum will likely see elevated fire weather concerns with the
current dry state of fuels. Overnight recoveries will be fairly
poor as well with maximum relative humidities only rising into the
teens to around 20 percent. With these factors a Red Flag Warning
has been issued for Saturday and Sunday.

Though potentially not as windy as this weekend, breeziness early
next week may continue to bring elevated fire weather concerns as
warm and dry conditions persist.

&&

.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures are forecast
today through the weekend.

DATE                         Apr 11           Apr 12           Apr 13
                          FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR      FCST RCD/YR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT       101  99/2023      99  96/1988      94  96/1963
AJO                       100 100/2023      98 100/1936      92 100/1936
KITT PEAK                  82  79/1989      80  75/1988      75  78/1962
ORGAN PIPE CACTUS         101  99/2023      97  98/1985      92 100/1985
PICACHO PEAK               96 100/2023      96  97/2008      90  97/2008
SAFFORD AG STATION         97  95/2023      98  93/1960      93  91/1992
SIERRA VISTA FD            93  89/2018      90  90/2018      85  88/1963
TOMBSTONE                  93  91/2018      91  91/2018      86  93/1992
WILLCOX                    93 91/1946       92 92/1946       88  90/2006

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ150>154.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ150>154.

&&

$$

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Aviation...Dang
Fire Weather....Dang

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