Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

136
FXUS65 KTWC 062030
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
130 PM MST Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm conditions across southeast Arizona through
next week. High temperatures warming to 3 to 5 degrees above normal
Sunday and Monday, with the Tucson metro flirting with 105 degrees
both Sunday and Monday. Temperatures then moderate a degree or two
mid to late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Overall, fairly quiet weather across southeast Arizona
over the next week. A ridge high of pressure will amplify from
northern Mexico northward into the Pacific Northwest this weekend.
This will result in warmer temperatures as highs warm to 3-5 degrees
above normal. Tucson will top out at 103 degrees Sunday and 104
degrees on Monday, with NBM probabilities of 105+ at only 5% at this
time.

The ridge axis shifts eastward mid to late next week, which will
allow high temperatures to moderate a degree or two. As the high
transitions eastward, there will be a brief period (Tuesday and
Wednesday) where mid-level moisture tries to work westward to along
the New Mexico state line. Current POPs are less than 10 percent
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon(s) across far eastern areas. At this
time, have low confidence in the moisture working this far westward.
However, this will be something to keep an eye on as these storms
(if they develop) would most likely be of the dry variety.

By late next week into the following weekend, high pressure aloft
consolidates from the Baja Peninsula across northern Mexico, for
dry conditions and warmer temperatures across southeast Arizona.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 07/12Z.

Clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind SWLY
through NWLY in direction at 8-14 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts til
07/02Z and again aft 07/18Z. Between 07/02Z and 07/18Z, SFC wind
will be 10 kts or less and variable in direction. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry the next 7 days. 20-foot winds
generally 15 mph or less, with occasional afternoon/early evening
gusts to around 25 mph. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the
single digits the next 7 days and between 7-14 percent in the
mountains. The only fire weather concern over the next week is the
potential for some mid level moisture to push as far west as the New
Mexico state line next Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon(s). Current
forecast package has less than a 10 percent chance of thunder next
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon`s near the New Mexico state line. At
this time, have very low confidence in this scenario coming to
fruition.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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