Casas Adobes, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

094
FXUS65 KTWC 201948
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1248 PM MST Sun Jul 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through
Tuesday then drying out for most of southeast Arizona into next
weekend. High temperatures generally below normal through Tuesday
then heating up into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly cloudy skies continue early this afternoon to
the northwest of Tucson while partly cloudy skies prevail from
Tucson south and eastward. The MCV that has resulted in this
extensive cloudiness is now continuing its trek to the NW and is
also located NW of Tucson. Where skies have cleared in Cochise
County, we`re starting to see some shower activity develop over the
higher terrain of the Chiricahua Mountains. The 18Z KTWC sounding is
certainly not enthusiastic for convective chances today in Tucson
with little instability. The focus will continue to be on locales to
the south and east of Tucson (primarily Cochise County) where
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, mainly slight chances for showers
and thunderstorms through tonight.

Monday is looking like a more active day for much of southeast
Arizona. In the lower levels, a Gulf Surge is currently feeding
moisture into southwest Arizona and this will continue to slosh to
the north and east into Monday. The combination of this moisture
(PWAT values Monday of 1.2-1.6 inches), increased instability and a
an inverted trough to our south and west will result in more
widespread showers and thunderstorms, initially developing across
the higher terrain to the south and east of Tucson, then moving
towards the NNW during the afternoon and early evening. The steering
flow will be strong enough to push this activity into the valleys as
storm motions should average around 15 MPH. Main concerns on Monday
will be locally heavy rainfall along with gusty winds.

Tuesday will be the last day with potential for monsoon storm
activity before a well defined break kicks in starting Wednesday.
Still plenty of moisture to work with Tuesday for scattered showers
and thunderstorms from Tucson eastward. Much of how Tuesday plays
out will be defined by how widespread storms are on Monday.

The second half of the work week starting Wednesday will be defined
by drying conditions and warming temperatures as a trough and upper
low dig down the west coast to near San Francisco. This will shunt
the subtropical high well to our east with a dry southwest flow
aloft. Surface dewpoints will be noticeably lower by Thursday and
Friday down into the 30s. Still enough moisture for isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday right along the NM
border but otherwise dry conditions. Meanwhile, temperatures will be
warming to above normal levels starting Thursday and continuing into
the weekend with moderate HeatRisk returning next weekend. By late
next Sunday and beyond, the high pressure aloft will start to become
into a more favorable location over the southern Plains and NM to
start to bring a gradual return of precipitation chances, initially
east of Tucson Sunday, then potentially spreading westward
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/00Z.
SCT-BKN 8k-11k ft AGL with layers above to 25k ft. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA
thru 23/04Z mainly S and SE of KTUS, with limited -SHRA/-TSRA
overnight into Monday morning before SCT -SHRA/-TSRA expected to
redevelop aft 22/19Z Gusty and erratic winds up to 35 kts with any
-TSRA. Otherwise, surface winds mainly under 12 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Below normal high temperatures through Tuesday
then heating up into next weekend. Typical monsoon activity
continues through Tuesday, then more pronounced drying and warming
Wednesday into next weekend. Afternoon winds will remain
southwesterly to westerly at 10-15 mph, with occasional gusts at or
above 25 mph. Afternoon RH values in the valleys will be 20-40%
through Tuesday and higher in the mountains before drying
considerably with Min RH values of 10-20% in the valleys and 15-30%
in the mountains.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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