Tanaina, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

990
FXAK68 PAFC 141248
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/
Sunday through Tuesday evening)...

***Key Messages:

- Strong southeast winds will develop across portions of
  Southcentral Alaska Sunday, peaking from mid morning through
  the evening hours.

- The strongest winds are expected along the Anchorage Hillside,
  Turnagain Arm, and Portage where gusts of 50 to 60 mph are
  possible.

- Gusts 40 to 50 mph are expected for the Anchorage Bowl, with the
  strongest gusts over South and West Anchorage, and Palmer.

- Gusts to 50 mph are possible for Whittier south to Seward,
  including interior Kenai Peninsula and around Kachemak Bay,
  this morning, with the strongest gusts likely between 7 AM and
  11 AM.


Discussion:

A strong area of low pressure is barreling toward Afognak Island
this morning, with widespread rain and gale-force winds across the
northern and western Gulf. Precipitation is also beginning to
overspread inland locations as a stout upper-level wave moving
inland ahead of the front, coupled with strong moisture advection,
helps to negate downsloping across the lee of the central Chugach
mountains. The precipitation has amounted to only a few sprinkles
along the lee of the western Chugach and Kenai mountains as drier
air remains due to strengthening northerly flow down Cook Inlet
ahead of the surface low.

Rain and high-end gales will continue along the immediate coast
through this morning before winds begin to diminish as the
precipitation becomes more showery in nature in the wake of the
surface front and a colder and more unstable airmass advects
northward. Expect another 1 to 2 inches of rain for coastal
locations today.

The main impact from this system will continue to be wind as the
low center moves from the Barren Islands Sunday morning into
Southwest Alaska Sunday afternoon. One subtle change of note is a
more westward track of the surface low, moving from Afognak Island
west over interior Bristol Bay today. This shift in the low track
will mean slightly weaker winds and gusts for interior locations -
Susitna Valley and Copper River Basin - but, overall forecasted
winds remain on track due to this low also being a bit stronger
than what was expected with a stronger isallobaric max (pressure
rises) behind the front. As advertised yesterday, this will usher
in gusty south to southeast winds for many locations as the front
moves inland. Strong southerly/easterly winds in excess of 40 kt
are possible by mid Sunday morning for Resurrection Bay (Seward)
and Passage Canal (Whittier), respectively. Gusts approaching 60
mph are also possible for Portage, parts of Turnagain Arm, and the
Anchorage/Eagle River Hillsides. Wind gusts up to 50 mph may be
possible for W and S Anchorage, Palmer, and across parts interior
Kenai Peninsula. Gusts to 45 mph remain possible for the Copper
River Basin and 35 mph into the Susitna Valley.

By Sunday night, the initial frontal system weakens as it
continues to track inland, allowing winds to slowly diminish in
intensity. Unsettled conditions, however, will persist across
much of Southcentral as weaker shortwaves move over Southcentral
from the Gulf, embedded in the southerly flow aloft. Lingering
showers are expected along the Gulf Coast and Prince William
Sound, while interior valleys including Anchorage and the Mat-Su
should see a mix of clouds.

For Monday and Tuesday, the vertically stacked low south of the
AkPen continues to weaken and drift southeast as weak ridging
gradually builds back across Southcentral Alaska. Precipitation
coverage will continue to decrease through the period, thought
lingering showers are expected along eastern Kenai Peninsula,
Prince William Sound, and portions of the Copper River Basin. A
tightening pressure gradient between higher pressure building over
the interior and lower pressure lingering over the northern Gulf
will continue to support localized gap winds through favored
areas, including Turnagain Arm, the Knik River Valley, and
portions of the COpper River Basin. Gusty winds may periodically
extend into West and SOuth Anchorage, Palmer, and Eagle River,
especially during the afternoon and evening hours MOnday and
potentially into early Tuesday.

By Tuesday weak ridging becomes more established across the
mainland, promoting a drier and slightly warmer pattern. most
inland locations, including Anchorage and the Mat-Su Valleys,
should see a mix of clouds and sunshine with only isolated
terrain-driven showers developing over the higher elevations
during the afternoon. Temperatures will trend a few degrees warmer
as skies gradually clear and precipitation becomes increasingly
confined to the mountains and immediate Gulf Coast.

-LM/TM

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday afternoon)...

A low pressure system originating from the North Pacific has moved
over the Alaska Peninsula this morning, and will push further
inland through the day today. This will amplify southeasterly gap
winds through the Western Alaska Range this afternoon, persisting
until the low loses strength by Monday afternoon. However through
this afternoon, widespread wetting rain showers are expected to
take over the vast majority of the Southwest Alaska region.
Rain will persist in most areas through Monday afternoon before
diminishing slowly. The rain will help alleviate some of the
warmer temperatures inland, allowing for cooler afternoons,
rebounding warm by Tuesday afternoon as the low diminishes.

Over the Bering, weak ridging over the westernmost Aleutians will
keep the pattern largely devoid of active weather in the Bering
and Aleutian Chain, and allow for the continued mix of low
stratus and occasional fog. The Pribilof Islands may continue to
see periods of fog, predominantly in the early mornings, through
Tuesday morning. Min temperature profiles across the Bering and
Southwest to be relatively homogenized, with overnight low
temperatures in the low 40s. Daytime high temperatures in
Southwest will continue to reach up to 70, while the Aleutians
should expect high temperatures of 50-55 through the weekend and
into next week.

-CL

&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A broad upper-level ridge over the eastern Gulf will gradually
shift eastward through early next week while a low pressure
system remains over the Gulf of Alaska. The interaction between
these features will maintain a moist southerly flow across
portions of Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday. Periods of rain
are expected across the eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince William
Sound on Monday, with lighter precipitation extending westward at
times into the ALaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island.

As the ridge axis shifts farther east, precipitation coverage is
expected to diminish from west to east Tuesday into Wednesday.
Showers will become increasingly confined to Prince William Sound
and the eastern Kenai Peninsula, while much of inland Southcentral
trends drier with increasing breaks in the cloud cover.

By Thursday, guidance suggests a weak upper-level disturbance will
track east across the Aleutians and Bering Sea, bringing an
increase in cloud cover and scattered showers to parts of
Southwest Alaska and the Aleutians. Southcentral Alaska is
expected to remain largely under the influence of weak ridging,
with only isolated showers possible over the higher terrain.

On Friday, relatively quiet weather is expected to persist across
most of Southcentral Alaska. Temperatures should remain near to
slightly above seasonal normals, with partly to mostly cloudy
skies and isolated afternoon showers developing mainly over the
mountains. Coastal areas, including Prince William Sound and the
eastern Kenai Peninsula, may continue to see lingering low clouds
or a few light showers, but widespread precipitation appears
unlikely. Forecast confidence decreases somewhat by the end of the
period, though the overall pattern favors mild temperatures and
relatively quiet conditions.


LM

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...Besides the possibility of a passing shower this morning,
strong downslope flow should prevent most rain showers from
spreading over the terminal. VFR conditions are likely to persist
through the TAF period, with ceilings staying at or above 5,000
ft. Light northerly winds this morning will give way to strong
southeasterly winds from Turnagain Arm by 16 or 17Z. Right before
this change occurs at the surface (at around 15Z), there is a
slight chance for a brief period of low-level windshear. Expect
southeasterly winds at 20 - 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts over the
terminal late this morning through early afternoon. Winds will
gradually diminish through the end of the day and into tomorrow.

$$