Sterling, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

463
FXAK68 PAFC 091338
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
538 AM AKDT Sat Aug 9 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Scattered showers have greatly dropped off in coverage over the past
24 hrs as the main forcing mechanism has moved into the Interior.
While coastal areas along the Gulf will still see lingering showers
this morning, much of the rest of inland Southcentral will get a
brief respite before an eastward progressing frontal boundary
brings additional rounds of showers for later today, and
continues through Monday. The incoming front is associated with a
compact low that will drop southwards into Y-K Delta region.
Models have come into better agreement with this system, but a few
discrepancies remain. The Canadian and EC have a warmer and more
neutral trough by Sunday afternoon with the NAM and GFS more
negatively tilted with colder midlevels. Lee-side troughing to
develop Sunday across the Susitna Valley and northern Copper
Basin. The low will lead to increasing easterly and southerly gap
flow winds tomorrow. Showers will return as lift starts to
increase over the Mat-Su region tomorrow. Models seem hesitant to
increase instability too much, but do have between 300-500 J/kg
over the Susitna Valley as cooler midlevel temperatures move in
with the trough. As such, wouldn`t be surprised to see additional
showers and some thunder for the northern Susitna Valley,
especially if we see decent breaks in the cloud cover today.
Showers and the potential for thunder will shift east into the
northern Copper Basin on Sunday with gusty southerly winds
developing over the southern half of the basin. Unsettled weather
will continue into Monday as the trough moves east. By Tuesday,
shortwave ridging looks to build over Southcentral.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Monday night)...

An upper-level low situated over Norton Sound is pushing a fairly
strong cold front into Southwest Alaska this morning. Along the
front, light to moderate rain showers are sweeping east from the
Kuskokwim Delta into the Lower Kuskokwim Valley and interior
Bristol Bay. Several tenths of an inch to around half an inch of
rain is expected from this band of precipitation in the Lower
Kuskokwim Valley, with rainfall amounts decreasing further south.
Along the Bristol Bay coast, dry conditions are expected, though
a few showers are possible, which could bring a few hundredths of
an inch of rain. Expect a steady, but not strong northwesterly
flow of cooler air over much of Southwest Alaska behind the front.
This will keep high temperatures in the low 50s today for the
Kuskokwim Delta and the low 60s for coastal Bristol Bay on Sunday.
By Sunday morning, the front exits to Southcentral, returning
Southwest Alaska to a drier regime Sunday through Monday.
Temperatures rebound somewhat as transient high pressure builds
into Southwest Alaska on Monday.

High pressure presently sits across the western Aleutians/Bering
Sea, keeping the weather in the region mostly benign, dominated
by widespread low stratus and areas of fog. Today, a Kamchatka
low pushes its front into the western Bering Sea, bringing with it
a new source of rain and southerly winds. A corridor of gales are
likely to develop along the front in the western Bering Sea by
Sunday morning, shifting into the north-central Bering Sea on
Sunday night. The high pressure ridging will be forced eastward
towards Southwest Alaska through the weekend as the front
progresses across the Bering Sea towards the Southwest coast.

By Monday, the front begins to push ashore of the Kuskokwim Delta
coast. Roughly around the same time, it appears likely that a
North Pacific low tracks to near the central Aleutians and
reinvigorates the front. This has the potential to extend gale
force winds across the length of the front from the central
Aleutians, across the Pribilof Islands, to along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. Moderate rainfall would likely accompany this
reinvigorated front, and the strong southerly push of winds brings
low, but non-zero concern for coastal flooding for the communities
of Kipnuk and Kwigillingok. Currently, the wind forecast is
uncertain, and the severity of coastal flooding is tied to the
strength of the winds. However, at this point water levels are
not likely to exceed 2 feet above the normal highest tide line for
the Monday into Tuesday timeframe, when the southerly winds will
be strongest. Stay tuned for further updates as the forecast is
refined.

-CL/CQ

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

Upper- level ridging amplifies across Southcentral on Tuesday
while broad troughing covers the Bering Sea from the Arctic to the
Aleutian Chain. A surface feature moving across the western and
central Aleutians is set to pull in ample moisture from the
Pacific, delivering the Pribilof Islands and Kuskokwim Delta coast
with moderate rain Tuesday. Increased southerly gap winds through
bays and passes of the Aleutian Chain will also enhance as this
feature phases with a stout closed low near the Bering Straight.

This wave will quickly move across mainland, bringing most of
southern Alaska some rain on Wednesday. Beyond this, model
agreement deteriorates significantly. Most of the state will be
under primarily zonal flow with shortwaves moving through the
pattern. Expect near normal temperatures with highs forecast to be
generally in the 60`s.


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions prevail with intermittent rain showers.
Light Turnagain Arm winds this morning will increase slightly through
the day with afternoon gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range over the
terminal.

&&


$$