Sitka, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

261
FXAK67 PAJK 061451
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
651 AM AKDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SHORT TERM...Showers continue across the panhandle this morning
but have decreased in coverage since last night. This break in
showers will be short though as the next system to impact SE AK
will move into the area starting today. A developing storm force
low will move north around the broad low that has moved from the
Bering and is now stationary in the western gulf. This developing
low will bring more rain and wind to the panhandle. Current
thinking remains similar to the forecast package issued yesterday
afternoon in that the heaviest rain will be located along the
southern panhandle with 2-2.25 inches possible. With regard to
flooding concerns, rivers across the area are expected to rise in
response but there is no concern for flooding at this time. As the
low moves north, winds will increase in response to the low moving
near the coast before the moves inland and west towards Anchorage.
Made only minor changes to the forecast that was inherited from
the day crew.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Thursday/...Big picture remains that
the entirety of the panhandle can expect widespread rain showers
through the beginning of next week with some isolated thunderstorms
possible, primarily for outer coastal communities from Sitka
northward to the Fairweather grounds. By Sunday the main low will be
weakening and meander over the gulf, with short wave features rotate
around it periodically giving fresh impulses of moisture. With the
ongoing widespread showers and overcast or occasionally broken
cloud cover, temperatures will remain seasonably cool with some
higher elevations, particularly the Klondike Highway, continuing
to see mixed precipitation. Minor snow accumulation will remain
likely in overnight hours with transition to a mix or all rain
during daytime hours. Otherwise the rest of the panhandle at sea
level will see crisp cold rain as snow levels range between 3000
and 4000 ft.

As mentioned above, these short wave features could lead to small
craft conditions for outer coastal waters. By early Tuesday, the
parent low is expected to meander into the eastern gulf before
turning back to the NW on Wednesday due to a weak ridge moving in
from the west. As the system gets closer to the outer coast, a
barrier jet could develop with small craft (likely), or possibly
near gale force winds developing along the NE gulf coastal waters.

Taking a peak into the crystal ball towards the latter half of
next week, unsettled weather will continue with another strong
storm entering the gulf next weekend with early signs of it being
a hefty rainmaker; more than our recent predominantly wind
impactful system. Stay up to date with the latest forecast for
further developments.

&&

.AVIATION.../Until 12Z Monday/...CIG and VIS conditions are
expected to deteriorate into the MVFR flight category early on
and primarily stay that way for the majority of the TAF period
as the frontal system moves northward over the Panhandle.
Improvements up to VFR conditions are possible as you progress
through the timeframe, especially the more south that you go.
PAYA looks to stay socked-in through the TAF period. SFC winds in
Southeast Alaska start out windy for the entire region, but
improve to benign magnitudes for the southern Panhandle as you
reach the evening and overnight hours. LLWS magnitudes of between
25 and 40 kt out of a southeasterly direction on average will
improve to benign values toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...A storm force low is expected to move into the gulf
waters later this morning bringing elevated winds and seas to the
region. Winds and seas through the Inner channels are expected to
come up to around 25 kt with the low moving into the area. Along
the outer coast, storm force winds are expected to develop as the
low approaches Cape Fairweather before moving inland. Behind this
system, the low currently parked over the western gulf will start
to move into the area for Monday allowing us only a small break
before more active weather returns.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind from 1 PM AKDT this afternoon through this evening
     for AKZ317.
     Strong Wind from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon
     for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 7 AM this morning to 1 PM AKDT this afternoon
     for AKZ329.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ644-664.
     Gale Warning for PKZ053-641>643-651-652-661>663-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-021-022-031-033>036.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....STJ
AVIATION...JLC

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