Petersburg, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

041
FXAK67 PAJK 142244
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
244 PM AKDT Wed May 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...

Key messages:

-Incoming front to bring another round of rain and wind to SE AK.
-Heaviest rain will be centered over the southern panhandle,
 mainly south of Frederick Sound.
-Strongest land winds will be associated with the frontal passage.
 Once the front clears the area late tomorrow, wind gust speeds
 will decrease.

Details:

Approaching front will bring the next round of rain and wind to
the panhandle. The parent low is tracking north in the western Gulf
of Alaska. After the front pushes inland, an embedded low will move
north through the eastern gulf, reinforcing the rain and wind for
the southern panhandle and along the coast.

Heaviest rain looks to center around the southern panhandle with the
highest amounts upwards of .50 to 1 inch tonight through tomorrow
afternoon with another .25 to .50 inch Thursday night. For those
north of Frederick sound, amounts will be around .25 to .50 inches
tonight through tomorrow afternoon with another .25 or less Thursday
afternoon. No flooding concerns expected at this times.

As the front passes over, wind gusts will be strongest in
association with the frontal passage. Gusts upwards of 30 to 40 mph
are possible, especially in the southern panhandle.


.LONG TERM...
Rain continues over the panhandle Friday as a low in
the northern gulf sends a weak front across the panhandle.
Precipitation during this time will remain light with the highest
rain totals over the southern panhandle. Southern portions of the
panhandle near Ketchikan will have around a 70% chance of
receiving 0.75 inches of rain in 24 hours. This low will keep
winds near 20 to 25 kts across the north and central coast. Winds
and rain will then diminish Friday night into Saturday as a ridge
moves over the gulf and panhandle. This ridge creates a short
break with drier weather for the panhandle Saturday night through
Sunday mid morning.

A vertically stacked low will take the place of the ridge in the
gulf Sunday. Precipitation and wind once again return focused on
the southern panhandle. An increase in wind speeds Sunday night
are represented in the new forecast due to increased confidence
in location and strength. Sunday night, southerly winds near the
southern coast and off-shore west of POW reach near Gale winds
with Gale force wind gusts. Both the low and stronger winds
diminish through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...An occluding front is currently moving into the coast,
signifying diminishing CIGS/VSBY from -RA and increased LLWS over
the next 24 hours. MVFR likely the dominant category. We should
start to see these conditions over Sitka near 04z Thursday,
spreading east into Thursday morning. Main focus for heaviest rain
and higher winds will be in the central and southern Panhandle,
with gusty conditions persisting through the day.

00z TAF package has confidence toward CIGS AoB FL030 with VSBY
diminishing to 4SM from RA BR at times, with the worst LLWS south
of Frederick Sound and along the coast.

&&

.MARINE...

Outside waters...SE winds will continue to increase this evening
into tonight with near gale to gale force winds along the NE to E
coastline. Highest wind speeds are along the NE gulf coast, with
areas near Cape Suckling exceeding 35 knots. Similar with
wave heights, seas will build to 10-16 ft with highest waves near
Cape Suckling, during roughly the same period of time as the
front.

Inside waters...For now, expecting winds to pick up in Chatham
Strait first, and expand eastward this evening. As a mesoscale
feature moves up from the south, wind speeds will increasingly
become easterly in nature, with Peril Strait, Fredrick Sound, and
Icy Strait being the highlights. One uncertainty with this
forecast is how far the winds will extend into Stephens Passage,
which will change depending on how far the additional mesoscale
feature will move northward. Not expecting any sustained winds
above a strong breeze, except out of ocean entrances

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ644-652-664-671-672.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ033-035-036-053-641>643-651-661>663.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GJS
LONG TERM....EAB
AVIATION...AP
MARINE...GJS

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