Mill Bay, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXAK68 PAFC 120008
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
408 PM AKDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Remnants of a weak, transient ridge over Southcentral have
promoted the rather stable conditions across the region today. By
this evening, southwesterly flow aloft and a shortwave lifting
into Southcentral will spread light snow over the western Alaska
Range and into the Susitna Valley. Relatively colder air will
stream into the region as well, and along with the shortwave
energy, will promote widespread snow filling in quickly across
Southcentral early Sunday morning. Forecast confidence is high for
accumulating snow Sunday morning due to colder air in place aloft
and precipitation starting prior to sunrise. As temperatures rise
through the day, snow will likely begin to melt on roadways and
further accumulation will become limited to the upper-elevations.
The Mat-Su Valleys are more likely to switch over to a snow/rain
mix due to some downslope warming off of the Alaska Range and
Talkeetnas as flow aloft becomes northwesterly in the afternoon
and evening. At this time however, the Anchorage and Eagle River
Hillsides may get higher snowfall rates as upslope flow really
kicks in on the western Chugach. Snow accumulations into Sunday
evening appear most likely from Palmer to Anchorage Hillside, down
to the Kenai Mountains.

Moving into Monday, the Copper Valley will continue to receive
some light precipitation, mainly over the mountains and the
southern Valley as the upper low swings into southwest Yukon
Territory. Heading into Tuesday, ridging will redevelop and
precipitation will come to an end.

Of note with this storm as well will be the winds for Kodiak,
southern Kachemak Bay, and the Barren Islands starting Sunday
afternoon and continuing through Monday. The decent cold air push
and strong shortwave will bring widespread gales to these areas.

-CL/CJ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Currently, an area of low pressure west of Gambell has its
attendant front draped across the eastern half of Southwest
Alaska. Although the front is clearing the area, a robust upper
level shortwave rounding the base of a negatively tilted longwave
trough situated over the eastern Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska
is digging southeastward with time. As it moves over Southwest
Alaska overnight, the short range guidance has scattered snow
showers redeveloping for the region this evening and overnight.

Meanwhile, by Sunday morning, a Kamchatka low`s front is poised
to move across the Western Aleutians with gusty winds and
rainfall. With somewhat colder air to the north, as the front
traverses the western Bering, there will be a swath of snow on the
leading edge of the front. The most uncertain aspect of this
system is the timing of the front as it nears the Pribilof Islands
on Monday. Some of the models, such as the GFS and NAM, show a
stronger and faster front and brings in the front 18-21z Monday.
On the other hand, the HRRR has precipitation moving in much
sooner than that (12z or so Monday), while the EC/Canadian have a
much slower progression and overall weaker front. For this
forecast package, model preference leans GFS/NAM due to more solid
run to run consistency.

Timing aside, due to temperatures in the upper 20s ahead of the
front and at precipitation onset (most likely sometime Monday
morning), the Pribilof Islands will start out as snow. With gusty
winds, there is potential for blowing snow for the first several
hours along with heavy snowfall rates, which could add up to 2 to
5 inches of wet snow. This window of seeing snow and blowing snow
will close as a warmer airmass moves and snow levels sharply rise,
which will change snow to rain sometime Monday afternoon to
evening. This will likely be a pretty "wet" system, so QPF amounts
could range anywhere from 0.5 to 0.75 inches through Tuesday
morning.

-AM

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Upper level troughing will continue over the Panhandle and high
pressure over the eastern Bering Sea will lead to northerly flow
over most of southern mainland Alaska at the start of the forecast
period. Mostly dry conditions will be present with elevated winds
through the Barren Islands and Kodiak Island, which will gradually
diminish through early Thursday.

A Sea of Okhotsk/Kamchatka low with embedded shortwaves will
transit the Bering Sea, spreading rain showers over the Aleutians
Tuesday and Southwest AK Wednesday and Thursday. There is
uncertainty among models regarding timing of trough progression,
but precipitation is expected to work into Southcentral Alaska
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will remain near or slightly
below normal through the forecast period.

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...The start of the evening will have VFR conditions, but
expect MVFR conditions to develop by late evening. Areas of
patchy fog may develop overnight before the arrival of snow, which
is expected to begin after midnight and bring IFR conditions for
both ceilings and visibility. MVFR conditions will return Sunday
afternoon as the snow ends or at least mixes in with rain.
Precipitation is expected to end Sunday late afternoon or evening.

&&

$$