Mill Bay, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXAK68 PAFC 040130
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
530 PM AKDT Sun May 3 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: This
afternoon through Wednesday afternoon)...

Generally expect a wet start to the week as the second of our
back-to-back storm systems reinforces precipitation across
Southcentral. There have been some changes in precipitation
timing as well as areas of increased winds, but the general
picture remains on track.

The first of our two systems moved in earlier today, bringing
widespread precipitation over Kodiak Island and the Northern Gulf
Coast. This front will pivot westwards over Mat-Su, Anchorage, and
Kenai Peninsula through this evening. By early tomorrow morning,
low approaching Kodiak island will begin to push its front into
Southcentral. The Gulf coast (Eastern Kenai Peninsula and Prince
William Sound) will see its strongest winds and highest
precipitation rates tomorrow afternoon and evening as the front
moves through. However, for Western Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage,
and Mat Valley, strong cross-barrier flow will lead to downsloping
and a likely end to precipitation by Monday evening. Precipitation
totals from now through Tuesday night will be on the order of
2-2.5 inches along the Gulf coast, 1.5 inches for Kodiak Island, 1
inch for Eastern Turnagain Arm and interior Kenai Mountains, 0.5-1
inch for the aforementioned downslope areas, and up to 0.5 inches
for much of Copper River Valley.

While the low remains the main player through Wednesday,
conditions gradually improve from late Monday through Tuesday,
transitioning to more of a showery and unsettled regime as the low
weakens.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

Ridging continues in the Bering, allowing for lower winds and
precipitation chances in most of the Aleutians. There are areas
of clearing and areas of lower ceilings accompanying the ridge. A
front in the Western Aleutians will cause gusty winds and
precipitation in that area. The most activity weatherwise will be
in the Southwest Mainland with a North Pacific low rising into
Southern Alaska. The low`s front will bring precipitation and
higher winds to the Southwest Mainland this afternoon.
Precipitation intensity will slowly rise through Monday.
Precipitation types will be a mix of rain and snow during night
and mostly rain during the day. The Kuskokwim Delta Coast will see
less precipitation due to being on the edge of the front. Gap
winds in Unimak Pass and Cold Bay area will increase in response
to the low`s approach, peaking Monday and decreasing by Tuesday.
The low will weaken and move into the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday,
which will gradually decrease precipitation chances and winds
speeds throughout the day. Cold air advection and lingering
precipitation behind the low will perhaps allow for light snowfall
in the Lower Kuskokwim Valley. By Wednesday, drier and calmer
weather will settle over most of Southwest Alaska. A stalled front
will allow for higher wind speeds and precipitation chances over
the Attu area on Wednesday.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through
Sunday)...

The long term forecast continues to favor a ridge of high
pressure over the Bering Sea and a broad trough taking shape over
the Gulf of Alaska by the end of next week. Generally dry
conditions are forecast across Southwest Alaska and also the
Bering Sea, from Saint Lawrence Island to Dutch Harbor while high
pressure reigns. Across the western Bering yet another front is
forecast to push into the Aleutians Saturday and Sunday of next
week with increasing winds and showers. As mentioned,
Southcentral will remain under the influence of a broader trough
over the Gulf. Multiple waves of low pressure lifting through the
trough will keep the weather pattern unsettled, with rain chances
essentially lingering from Thursday of next week through the
weekend across Southcentral.

BL

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions will gradually give way to MVFR conditions,
possibly with periods of IFR ceilings late tonight, as a steady
rain moves over the terminal beginning late this evening. Light
and variable winds will prevail through the overnight hours
before becoming more northerly around 5 to 8 kt through Monday
morning. LLWS is a possibility beginning early to mid Monday
morning as southeasterly wind increase aloft in conjunction with
the prevailing north- northwesterly surface wind over the
terminal. Steady rain will become lighter by early to mid-morning
Monday, with ceilings improving to VFR, as the southeasterly winds
aloft increase.

&&
$$