Mill Bay, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

384
FXAK68 PAFC 141245
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
445 AM AKDT Wed May 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
(Days 1 through 3)...

A strong low pressure system is currently tracking north towards
the Alaska Peninsula, with a strong front currently pushing into
Kodiak Island this morning. Throughout the day the front will
push into the eastern Kenai and Prince William Sound, where it
will linger through Friday while weakening. The strong winds will
keep inland areas mostly dry from Ninilchik north into the Mat-Su
Valleys, though some light rain over the higher terrain is
possible each day. Additionally, light rain may linger over the
northern Copper Valley from late this evening to early Friday
morning. Gap winds are likely to follow their normal diurnal
pattern, likely the strongest today and slowly weakening as the
front weakens along the coast through Friday. Expect widespread
cloudcover and normal to slightly below normal temperatures.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: Today through Saturday morning)...

The forecast remains on track, with some minor adjustments to
timing and positioning of key features. The low near the Alaska
Peninsula will produce the most impactful weather the next couple
days. The strong front associated with this the low will stall
over Bristol Bay through Thursday. Expect widespread strong and
gusty easterly winds for nearly all of the Bristol Bay region
today, as well as gusty winds through the bays and passes of the
Alaska Peninsula. Downslope flow will limit rainfall from King
Salmon northward, with the bulk of rain falling further south of
King Salmon along the Alaska Peninsula as well as north and west
of Dillingham. Strong and gusty gap winds are also expected on the
back side of the low along the southern Alaska Peninsula (False
Pass, Cold Bay, and King Cove). As downslope winds diminish
Wednesday night and Thursday, areas of light rain will spread
across most of the Bristol Bay region. Meanwhile, drier and warmer
conditions will prevail for the Kuskokwim Delta and Kuskokwim
Valley the next couple days, though with considerable cloud cover.
Conditions will be fairly quiet over the Bering Sea and Aleutians
with just some showers as the low over the central Bering tracks
southward to the Aleutians on Thursday before dissipating. By
Friday, the only feature left will be a weak low in the eastern
Bering Sea, with overall quiet weather region-wide.

-SEB/KC

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

A broad upper level low over Southern Alaska with multiple
troughs and shortwaves rotating through the pattern carries the
forecast period. The pattern smooths out with an elongated trough
from the Central Aleutians to Southeast Alaska by Tuesday. Most of
the active weather is initially expected across the Aleutians and
Alaska Peninsula and spreads into and across Kodiak Island and
the Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. Forecast models are in decent
agreement with the larger scale features, leaving the smaller
surface details in greatest uncertainty.

A weak front spreads rain from the Eastern Aleutians into the
AKPEN Saturday. A well developed low and front approaches from the
North Pacific for Sunday, and brings more rain from the Eastern
Aleutians across Southcentral Alaska through Tuesday. In the West,
a developing low and front out of Kamchatka pushes rain into the
Western Aleutians and Bering Saturday, and continues along the
Aleutians through late Monday. Another strong North Pacific low
and front approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering for Tuesday.

- Kutz


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected. Southeasterly winds out of
Turnagain Arm will increase through the day, with peak gusts up to
25 kts across the terminal late this afternoon. Light northerly
winds return across Anchorage tonight around 09Z. A Turnagain Arm
wind will redevelop tomorrow afternoon, bringing southeasterly
winds up to 25 kts to the terminal through the evening hours.

&&


$$