Kotzebue, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

065
FXAK69 PAFG 212234
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
234 PM AKDT Wed May 21 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend takes hold across the Interior now through the
weekend. Isolated thunderstorms possible along elevated terrain of
the Eastern and Central Interior this afternoon and evening.
Additional thunderstorms possible in the Fortymile Country

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
-Warming trend through the weekend. Highs in the upper 50s to low
 60s today increase into the mid to upper 60s Friday and to near
 70 this weekend for Interior valleys.

-Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and evening along
 elevated terrain in the White Mountains, Fortymile Country, and
 Northern Interior south of the Brooks Range. Thunderstorms
 possible in the Fortymile Country and near the Canadian border
 Thursday and Friday. Thunderstorm risk increases for much of the
 Interior Sunday and Monday.

-Some light showers remain in the Central Interior and diminish
 Thursday. Isolated showers possible each afternoon across the
 Interior into next week.

West Coast and Western Interior...
-Warming trend through the weekend. Highs near 50 in the Western
 Interior today increase to the upper 50s by Friday and low 60s
 this weekend.

-Scattered to numerous showers in the Southwest Interior and Yukon
 Delta through Thursday.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
-East Northeast winds 15 to 25 mph west of Point Barrow and 10 to
 20 mph east of Point Barrow.

-Areas of low stratus persist through the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
A 530 dam upper level low moves into the Gulf of Alaska this
evening. Ridging builds in the Interior today and disrupts the
broad troughing pattern seen over the first half of the week. An
Arctic low and the low in the Gulf of Alaska slowly chip at the
front keeping it from building much stronger through the end of
the week. Under the ridge temperatures across the Interior and
West Coast increase with highs rising about 10 degrees by Saturday
for most places. As the lows chip away at the ridge additional
instability is generated which will help generate isolated
thunderstorms across the Interior each afternoon and evening
through the end of the week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated thunderstorms expected in the Fortymile Country and White
Mountains Wednesday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms
forming along elevated terrain of the Central Interior around the
Dalton Highway and Koyukuk Valley. Thunderstorm chances continue
Thursday and Friday with isolated storms possible in the Fortymile
country Thursday and in the Fortymile Country and upper Kuskokwim
Valley Friday. A strengthening ridge over the Interior will cause
a warming trend into the weekend with highs in the upper 50s to
low 60s today increasing to the upper 60s to near 70 this weekend.
Minimum RHs in the upper 20s to mid 30s in the Interior today
decrease slightly with building temperatures to the mid 20s. Winds
remain generally calm in the Interior through the weekend.

Sunday and Monday sees the ridge begin to break down in the
Interior which leads to greater thunderstorm potential Sunday and
Monday. The finer details are still uncertain, but increased
thunderstorm potential across the Interior is expected when the
ridge begins to break down.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Degraded ice remains in place at the mouth of the Yukon River.
Snowmelt has begun in the Porcupine watershed in Canada and water
is starting to pool on the ice of the Porcupine River. Tributaries
are rising more rapidly today after strong melt on Sunday, but the
ice cover remains almost entirely intact on the Porcupine in
Canada. Between the border and the Yukon River ice is degrading
with some areas opening up.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...
Sunday into Monday sees movement in the pattern with a 520 dam low
moving through the Bering Sea and a 516 to 526 dam low moving
through the Arctic which will force ridge breakdown in the
Interior. As the ridge breaks down a large spike in instability
will increase thunderstorm potential across the Interior for
Sunday and Monday. The low previously in the Gulf will likely wrap
around the approaching 520 dam low as a strong shortwave feature
causing an easterly wave in the Interior increasing thunderstorm
potential further Monday. Ridge breakdown and the easterly wave
will lead to elevated thunderstorm potential early next week. We
will continue to monitor this feature as it develops.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-811-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ802.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ857.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

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