Kotzebue, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

837
FXAK69 PAFG 142221
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
221 PM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Fire weather is the main concern today as a low in the Western
Gulf of Alaska brings an occluded front northward. It will be
battling a ridge over Canada as it does so, resulting in gusty
southeast winds over the Central/Eastern Interior and Brooks
Range, as well as gap winds through the AK Range. Wind, warm
temperatures and low humidity are the reasons for the fire weather
concerns. The front will move northwest into the Brooks
Range/Eastern Interior this afternoon providing isolated to
scattered showers. It will run into a weak shortwave trough over
the West Coast with a ridge behind it in the Bering causing breezy
northerly winds over much of the West Coast. Moving into
tomorrow, hydro becomes the main concern as we are expecting an
abundance of rain in the Brooks Range and North Slope from Monday
to Wednesday. Rainfall may be in the order of 0.5 to 1.00 inches
which can cause rapid river rises, especially when combined with
snowmelt from the Brooks Range.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...
Central and Eastern Interior...
- Red Flag Warnings in effect for Delta Junction and the Yukon
  Flats through 8PM this evening.

- Isolated to scattered showers this afternoon with the highest
  chance for rain expected in the Eastern Interior.

- Widespread rain moves into the southern Brooks Range tonight,
  continues through Monday afternoon then subsides.

- Cooler temperatures expected on Monday with highs in the upper
  60s to near 70. Warming trend through Wednesday, back into the
  low to mid 70s across the area.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Scattered showers expected this afternoon with highs in the 60s
  and 70s for most spots. 40s and 50s around Kotzebue Sound and
  the northern Seward Peninsula.

- Showers continue into Monday, mostly from Ambler/Shungnak
  southward along the coast and towards Hooper Bay. Farther east
  remains mostly dry.

- Temperatures are much cooler tomorrow, in the 50s and 60s for
  most spots while remaining in the 40s from Kotzebue to Wales.

- Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday as highs return to the 70s
  in the Interior and 60s along the coast. A few showers are
  possible around but most remain dry.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Moderate to heavy rain in the Brooks Range and North Slope from
  tonight through Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts near 0.50 to
  1.0 inches expected from the Central Brooks Range to Deadhorse
  while the Western Brooks Range/North Slope remain drier.

- Temperatures remain mild but trend upward through most of the
  week, potentially in the 50s along the coast late this week.

- Warm temperatures leads to snowmelt in the Brooks Range. This
  combined with rain may lead to areas of flooding near the
  rivers. A Flood Watch has been issued through Wednesday AM.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
An occluded front associated with a low near the AK Peninsula is
helping to provide gusty southeast winds across much of the
Interior today. This front also supplies showers to many sections
of Northern Alaska with the Central Interior remaining mostly dry
due to chinook flow. Tonight, a surge of moisture from the Gulf of
Alaska will move northward, then northwest over the Brooks Range.
This plume of moisture is pretty anomalous and is coming with PWAT
values of 0.75 to 1.00" or more which is certainly more than
enough to cause rain, heavy at times. It will set up over the
Central Brooks Range beginning tonight, then gradually spread
north to the Arctic Coast tomorrow afternoon.

Taking a deeper dive, 500mb vorticity shows strong maxima moving
northwest over the Brooks Range and North Slope tonight into
tomorrow. This area of vorticity is combined with strong vertical
motion at 700mb and 850mb with frontogenesis at 850mb as well.
The 12z NAM depicts this vertical motion at around 10 to 20
microbars per second which is anomalously high, especially for the
northernmost latitudes of Alaska. Moving forward towards Tuesday,
this area of vorticity halts its northwestern progression as it
gets blocked by an upper low over the Chukchi Sea and begins to
pivot in place. This will allow for a north to south oriented
area of moderate or heavy rain to sit over 1 spot for hours on
end. Where that occurs will be the "bullseye" for heaviest
rainfall totals. With every mesoscale heavy rain feature, there
is uncertainty with placement and this is no different. We are
anticipating a pivoting rain band somewhere in the vicinity of
Anaktuvuk/Atigun Pass and between Point Thomson and Nuiqsut.
Areas underneath this rain band will see totals upwards of 0.5 to
1.0" or more. This can result in localized flooding as rivers rise
from the Brooks Range to the Arctic Coast.

Otherwise, generally lighter showers are expected in the Western
and Eastern Interior as the Central Interior gets chinooked.
Strong gap winds will persist through Monday morning then subside.
Overall, after Monday the rest of the week looks to be mostly dry
south of the Brooks Range. There will be a warming trend from
Monday through Wednesday and beyond as a ridge builds in. Summer
like weather will continue through the end of the week and into
next weekend and there may be some very active thunderstorm days
as well.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 8PM this evening for
Delta Junction and the Yukon Flats. Expect south winds up to 55
mph in Delta Junction with min RHs around 25 to 30%, whereas the
Yukon Flats will have hot/dry/windy with temperatures in the upper
70s, winds up to 25 mph and min RHs around 25%. Tomorrow will be
cooler with calming winds and higher RHs across the board,
leaving little to no concern for worsening fire weather
conditions. Isolated to scattered showers are expected in the
Eastern and Western Interior with a drier pocket in the Central
Interior from chinook flow. The heaviest Interior rain will be in
the Western Interior from Ambler to St. Mary`s where 0.10" to
0.30" of rain is expected through Monday afternoon. The Brooks
Range will be getting a soaking rain from tonight through
Wednesday with localized amounts up to 1 inch. Otherwise, a
warming and drying trend takes hold from Tuesday onward with
minimal thunderstorm potential until Wednesday when storms begin
to move back into the Interior. Towards the end of the week and
next weekend, temperatures are expected to warm with some big
thunderstorm potential.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Temperatures in the Brooks Range will be warming into the 60s and
low 70s for highs and staying above freezing with low
temperatures in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the next several
days. The Arctic Plain and Coast will have temperatures ranging
from about 40F to 60F with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Rain is expected from Sunday night through Wednesday morning
across a wide swath of the Brooks Range and North Slope with
amounts ranging from 0.5 to 1.0 inches.

Most of the remaining snowpack is in the foothills and mountains
where temperatures and rainfall will be highest. The combination
of snow melt and rainfall is increasingly likely to result in
river rises.

Most of the ice on the larger rivers has already moved out which
leaves more room to accommodate the snowmelt and rainfall. This
contrasts with last year`s late breakup when the snowmelt all
entered the river systems while ice was mainly still in place.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Thursday through Sunday.
By the start of the extended period on Thursday, most of Alaska
will be under upper-level high pressure. However, an upper-level
low in the Bering Strait should prevent a ridge in the Bering from
building in out of the southwest. As a result, the high pressure
over the state looks to remain relatively weak through the
extended. This pattern supports warm temperatures, 70s in the
Interior, but also widespread afternoon convection. Thunderstorm
potential in the Interior should generally increase through the
latter half of the week as the pattern remains relatively stagnant
until Sunday.

Sunday, models depict an arctic trough swinging west to east
across the North Slope. The strength and timing of this trough is
somewhat uncertain, with the 12Z deterministic ECMWF having an
incredibly fast and aggressive solution, where the trough is
flung southward into Northern Alaska as a low. Ensemble guidance
is much more reserved with this feature, with weak ridging
persisting south of the Brooks Range. I`ll be treating the Euro as
an outlier, but given we`ve had one anomalous arctic trough
already this summer, I`m inclined to keep an eye on how the models
handle this Arctic trough going forward.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Flood Watch for AKZ804>810.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ933-937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ808-855.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-815-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Bianco
Troyke - Extended Discussion