Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

736
FXAK68 PAFC 191336
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
536 AM AKDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Tuesday night)...

It is a rather complex weather set-up today with a pattern that
look more reminiscent of Fall than Spring over Southern Alaska.
A strong low in the Bering Sea is anchoring a series of upper
level shortwaves that will move through Southcentral the next few
days. This will keep persistent moist, west-to-southwest flow
aloft over the area with periods of precipitation (mostly rain at
lower elevations) as the shortwaves move through. In addition,
strong southeasterly winds will develop today through Turnagain
Arm and bend into the Anchorage Bowl so a wet and blustery day is
expected. The south to southeast winds are also expected through
the other typical gaps such as the Knik River Valley and along the
Copper River.

Snow is expected for areas close to the Alaska Range where the
higher elevations and upslope will keep the precipitation mostly
snow. There is a winter weather advisory out for portions of both
the Parks highway (from Chulitna north) and Richardson Highway
(from Paxson north) through Monday afternoon for expected snow
accumulation of anywhere from 4 to 10 inches. However, the big
snow winner may very well be Hatcher Pass where one to two feet
of snow is possible in this classic pattern for heavy snow in
Hatcher Pass.

There is a high surf advisory in Kachemak Bay as the southwesterly
winds increase this afternoon and bring in higher waves that
could impact the Homer Spit. This high surf advisory runs this
afternoon into Monday morning`s high tide cycle.

For Monday and Tuesday, expect cloudy conditions with showers
mainly along the mountains as a little more zonal flow sets in,
and various weak upper level shortwaves transit the area. A weak
surface low may develop near Prince William Sound Monday night,
which will lead to enhanced precipitation for the Valdez and
Cordova areas. However, this system will be weak and quick-
moving, so impacts will be limited.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Wednesday morning)...

A strong 970 mb low continues to take up real estate in the
western Bering Sea this morning as it continues to weaken through
today. Its front also continues pushing inland of mainland
Southwest Alaska this morning. Steady snow this morning across the
Kuskokwim Valley and along the Western Alaska Range will become
more showery in nature as cold air moves in from the southwest off
of the Bering Sea. Meanwhile, locations such as Bethel and Kipnuk
changed over to rain late last night. Precipitation this
afternoon could mix with or change back over to snow as the cold
air aloft previously mentioned moves back in from the southwest.
Off and on rain/snow shower mix will continue across mainland
Southwest through Monday. Most accumulation will occur along the
Western Alaska Range due to westerly upslope flow enhancement with
little additional accumulation elsewhere.

Another strong system will begin taking shape in the North
Pacific late tonight and Monday. Upper level energy moving from
west to east south of the Kamchatka Peninsula will interact with
a cold airmass moving south out of Kamchatka on Monday and cause a
developing surface low to intensify and deepen further. There is
reasonable agreement between guidance that the developing low will
slow its eastward progression down and potentially even stall
between Amchitka and Adak Monday night into Tuesday as a strong
ridge develops to the east. While the system slows down or stalls
Monday night into Tuesday, it will wrap in more cold air from
Russia and become a deep system by Tuesday night. The potential is
there for another sub-970mb low in the south-central Bering Sea
by Tuesday night.

This forecast package has the low mentioned above strengthening
to storm-force by Tuesday afternoon with a corridor of 50 kt
sustained northeast winds along the storm`s northern periphery in
the central Bering. Regardless of winds, this system looks to be
quite wet as it will be accompanied by a tropical moisture tap.
There is some uncertainty with where the initial best moisture
surge for Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Current guidance
has the best moisture and heaviest rain axis just to the west of
Adak; this could change in future forecast packages, so stay
tuned.

For Tuesday, a secondary and more widespread push of moisture
lifts up from the North Pacific and impacts Adak/Atka,
Nikolski/Unalaska/Akutan, and the Pribilof Islands with moderate
to heavy rain. The moderate to heavy precipitation makes it to
mainland Southwest Alaska by late Tuesday afternoon to early
Tuesday evening. Precipitation may start as a period of snow along
the Kuskokwim Delta/Kuskokwim Delta Coast Tuesday afternoon
before changing to rain/snow mix and eventually rain through
Tuesday night. The tropical moisture tap shifts eastward from
Unalaska/Nikolski/Akutan to over the Alaska Peninsula Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. Moderate to heavy rain at times is
looking likely from False Pass eastward to Chignik Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. However, this moisture axis does not look
to hang around long as it continues eastward to Kodiak Island by
late Wednesday morning. Stay tuned for further forecast updates
regarding the development of the next unseasonably strong Bering
low for next week.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

A transition toward cooler and more unsettled conditions is
expected across much of Alaska through the upcoming week. A
pattern dropping south from the north will usher in colder air
along with periodic snow showers, particularly across the interior
and the Alaska Range.

By early to mid next week, attention shifts to Southcentral and
Southeast Alaska as a developing system draws in a deeper surge of
moisture. This will likely bring several days of mixed
precipitation, including rain at lower elevations and snow at
higher elevations. The heaviest snowfall appears most likely
across the Alaska Range and through higher elevation passes,
accompanied by increasing winds.

A strong North Pacific low continues to be monitored. While
current guidance keeps this system south of the state, any
northward shift toward the Gulf of Alaska could introduce another
round of impactful weather late next week.

LM


&&



.AVIATION...

PANC...A frontal system moving into Southcentral will lead to
breezy and rainy conditions for much of the TAF period today into
tonight. Generally MVFR ceilings and visibility are expected as
precipitation begins at the terminal early this morning. There
could still be a rain-snow mix at the very onset in the early
morning, but temperatures will otherwise be warm enough for rain
for the rest of the day. Gusty southeast winds will continue to
pick up ahead of the front through this afternoon, with peak gusts
around 30 kt with potential for 35 kt anticipated during the
early to mid afternoon.

Conditions will likely improve to VFR as the front passes through
this evening around 03 to 06Z as rain ends and ceilings rise.
Gusty winds will turn more out of the south at about the same
time, with 20 to 30 kt gusts expected to persist overnight tonight
into early Monday morning.

&&


$$