Knik Fairview, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

365
FXAK68 PAFC 161420
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKST Tue Dec 16 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The main story over Southcentral remains the colder than average
temperatures and some gusty winds though channeled terrain. A weak
short wave is dropping into Southcentral from the northwest
tonight. This will bring in a few high clouds in advance of it
today and then bring an uptick in winds tonight, though not
nearly as strong as in recent days for most of the area. Seward,
Whittier and Valdez in particular may see winds persist today and
not really drop off as the pressure gradient along the mountains
in these areas really will not diminish further.

The coldest temperatures will, as expected, be in the Copper River
Basin. However, it does not look like temperatures there will be
as cold the next few days as previous thought. Low temperatures in
Glennallen look to remain around the 25 to 32 below range when
there is not any wind and the temperature should increase if
there is some that comes through, most likely on Wednesday night.
Therefore the Cold Weather Advisory for temperatures from 40
below to 50 below zero has been canceled. Temperatures could drop
as we move toward the weekend, but temperatures that cold look
unlikely the next few days.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
Days 1 through 3...


*** A High Wind Warning is in effect for Pacific side of the
 Alaska Peninsula from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
 morning. ***

High pressure over the Western Aleutians strengthens as it moves
slowly across the Bering Sea side of the Aleutians and then into
the North Pacific through this week. This results in strong,
sustained ridging over the Aleutians with northerly flow through
the Eastern Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Mainland
through Wednesday.

Today, with the aid of an upper level jet and a fast-moving
shortwave, very strong winds move through the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula. Wind gusts in these areas will range from 65
to 80 mph from this afternoon into tomorrow morning. A High Wind
Warning has been issued for the communities from False Pass to
Chignik. However, the strongest winds in this warning area are
expected from Sand Point to Chignik. The greatest chance for the
highest wind gusts are expected from late this evening through
early tomorrow morning.

Elsewhere, temperatures across the Mainland will remain below
zero as the week progresses with cold air continuing to flow into
the region. A shortwave moving over the ridge and through the
Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula will end the strong winds
through those areas and also bring light snow the the Mainland.


-Johnston

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Friday through Monday)...

The highly amplified pattern continues through this weekend. High
pressure centered south of the Aleutian Islands along with low
pressure in the eastern Gulf of Alaska will keep gusty gap winds
persistent across the Alaska Peninsula and through the western
Gulf. Winds in general will be weaker than this past weekend and
early this week, with a messier pattern of weaker shortwave
troughs aloft. Temperatures remain below average across
Southcentral Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper River
Basin, where ambient temperatures will hover in the range of 30
to 40 below zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see warmer,
somewhat moist air ride up and over the ridge. A weak disturbance
moving through Southwest Alaska on Thursday exits into the Gulf
on Friday, leaving some lingering upslope snow showers, primarily
along the Kuskokwim Mountains and Western Alaska Range. The
passing wave could also lead to a brief increase in winds out of
gaps. Heading into the weekend, a series of low pressure systems
track up the coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western Alaska.
This increases chances for precipitation in Southwest Alaska
Saturday night into Monday. Precipitation is likely to be mostly
snow, though rain is possible along the coast, and is increasingly
likely southward along the Alaska Peninsula. By Sunday, these lows
advect warmer air into the area, with temperatures rising into
the 20s and low 30s for much of mainland Southwest Alaska.
Southcentral Alaska looks to remain mostly dry and downsloped in
northwesterly flow, though some isolated snow showers cannot be
ruled out this weekend.

Quesada

&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds
will increase a little overnight Tuesday night.

&&


$$