Ketchikan, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

722
FXAK67 PAJK 120007
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
407 PM AKDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

- Warmer and drier conditions last into Saturday night.

- Another system arrives Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a
  rain/snow mix to the northern half of SE AK, and rain to areas
  further south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Warm temperatures and clear skies last across much of
the panhandle this evening into tonight. This benign weather will
begin to change tomorrow as a low develops in the NW Gulf near
Prince William Sound late tonight. This low will develop on the lee
side of an upper level trough digging down from the Bering Sea and
western AK, resulting in much colder temperatures aloft. The cold
front that extends from this low will move into the NE Gulf coast
Sunday morning, pushing into the panhandle from W to E through
the day Sunday. This front is expected to be followed by showers
as the warm near surface temperatures and cold temperatures aloft
allow for convective activity just behind the front. These showers
are expected to continue into Monday morning across the
panhandle.

This first front is expected to have a harder time precipitating out
due to the lower moisture availability from the system not having
a good southwesterly moisture flow associated with it, and the
currently extremely dry temperatures at the surface to around 700
mb. The lower layers will need to saturate as this front moves
through, dragging down some of the actual QPF amounts along the NE
coastline and panhandle tomorrow morning / midday. The showers
behind this front will result in more QPF, though as typical with
showers, will be scattered in which areas see the higher
precipitation amounts. Overall between 0.2 and 0.6 inches of QPF
expected Sunday, with the northern panhandle and coastline seeing
higher amounts. Warmer daytime temperatures and cloud cover moving
in tonight will keep areas from cooling as much overnight and
keep many areas as rain. Any mixed precipitation Sunday morning
and late tomorrow night will likely not accumulate. If any
accumulation occurs, it will be overnight and a trace amount of
very wet slushy accumulation, melting as the day starts along with
the transition to rain.

.LONG TERM...The low pressure from the short term will continue
to remain over the northern Gulf for the start of the long term
period. This will continue to bring showers to the panhandle. With
the showers affecting the panhandle, the precipitation type will
likely vary depending on the intensity of the shower as well as
location in the panhandle. Icy Strait northward has a better
chance of seeing a rain snow mix or straight snow while farther
south, a mix or straight rain is more likely. These showers are
expected to diminish going into Tuesday as the low ejects to the
south and high pressure moves into the Gulf.

This break is expected to be short though as another low is expected
to move into the area. Ensembles roughly agree on this low forming
just outside of the Prince William Sound area. GEFS and EPS ensemble
guidance continues to show some disagreement on the placement of the
surface low. Another concern with the low forming in this location
will be how much moisture can it pick up before the precip moves
into the area.

Heading into the extended period, CPC guidance shows us moving
towards cooler than normal temperatures and near to below normal
precipitation. One thing that will have to be watched going forward
during the entire long term period will be how much does the ever
increasing daylight and sun angle affect temperatures across the
panhandle.

&&

.Aviation...The rest of your Saturday will have great aviation
conditions for Southeast Alaska. With fairly dry conditions
throughout the area fog formation is not looking likely, but we
could see some thin isolated patches that form during the
overnight hours. Late tonight into Sunday morning, a low pressure
system over PWS will send our next front into SEAK. That front
will lead to clouds and precipitation for our area, however, VFR
conditions are expected to remain in place through the early
morning hours. A secondary front will move over Gulf of Alaska
towards the north Gulf Coast by mid morning. This wave is expected
to bring MVFR ceilings to terminals such as PAYA and PASI. These
conditions will slowly progress eastward through the rest of the
morning and early afternoon Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Outside (Gulf and Coastal Waters): Northwesterly winds continue
across the eastern Gulf, with speeds of moderate to strong breezes
(17 to 27 kt) expected to last into Saturday night with the
strongest winds along the southeastern gulf. As the low moves into
the Gulf and the front approaches into Sunday morning, winds will
shift to be westerly and increase to a strong breeze (22 to 27 kt)
across the central Gulf. Primary wave heights will increase to 8 to
10 along the E Gulf and 10 to 12 ft along the central Gulf by Sunday
night.

Inside (Inner channels): Weak northerly outflow winds remain across
the N/S channels into Saturday evening with moderate to strong
breezes (11 to 27 kt) impacting Glacier Bay, Lynn Canal, Chatham
Strait, Stephens Passage and Clarence Strait. Another system will
bring a front across the panhandle Sunday, bringing southerly winds
of a moderate to strong breeze as it passes through Sunday afternoon
through the night. The main areas of concern will be along Lynn
Canal and Stephens Passage with strong breezes expected by Sunday
night.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ661.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Contino
LONG TERM...SF
AVIATION...Butwin
MARINE...Contino

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