Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

898
FXAK68 PAFC 180210
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
510 PM AKST Wed Dec 17 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

The thinking for the forecast remains similar to the past few
days due to the cold, windy, and dry pattern for Southcentral
remaining.

Winds in the typical channeled areas including, the Matanuska
Valley, Valdez, Seward, and Whittier are expected to be elevated
today. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Matanuska Valley
and Valdez due to persistently gusty winds. Winds in the Matanuska
Valley should diminish tomorrow evening (though remaining
elevated to some extent), but Valdez is expected to have higher
winds due to a shortwave dropping from the north.

Gap winds around Kodiak Island will be be gale force with some
potential for storm force in the Barren Islands due to continued
cold air advection. As for Seward and Whittier, the pressure
gradient remains, so winds will remain gusty for the foreseeable
future with only minute breaks in wind at times. The continued
northerly flow means that dry conditions remain, with occasional
high clouds moving in. Cold air advection and lower winds will
allow temperatures to cool to the single digits across
Southcentral with low spots in the Copper River Basin dropping
below -20F and -30F.

Friday into the weekend sees more of the same, with a couple of
shortwaves dropping in from the north. Friday`s shortwave will
allow for increased wind speeds in Valdez and the Matanuska Valley
with Valdez likely seeing the strongest winds. The Valdez area
may see winds gusting to over 50 mph at times. Thompson Pass could
have gusts over 70 mph. The Matanuska Valley could see a period
of gusty winds over 40 mph. The stronger shortwave arrives
Saturday evening into Sunday. This one is expected to track more
to the west, meaning that more significant gusty winds are
possible for the Mat-Su Valley and Anchorage. Valdez will still
see gusty winds with this shortwave as well. Confidence is
growing in the track, but some changes are still possible, which
would impact the forecast.

-JAR/EZ

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS Days 1
through 3...

Key Messages:

- Precipitation chances increase Thursday for the Kuskokwim Delta
with 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snow expected. Up to 3 inches of snow near
and along the northern slopes of the Kuskokwim Mountains.

- Slight, relatively warmer trend begins Thursday through the end of
the week.

Discussion:

High pressure that has been pretty entrenched over the Bering Sea
and western Alaska will start to shift southwards into the North
Pacific tonight as a trough pushes across the Bering Strait and
northern Bering Sea and into Southwest Alaska on Thursday. This will
bring a round of light snow across the Kuskokwim Delta region and a
snow transitioning to rain or a rain/snow mix to the the southern
AKPEN and portions of the eastern Aleutians. Overall precipitation
amounts look light as this system moves through rather quickly
Thursday into early Friday. Snowfall amounts of 1 to 1.5 inches
possible across the Kuskokwim Delta with higher amounts of up to 3
inches along the higher terrain of the Kuskokwim Mountains. No real
snow amounts expected for the AKPEN and eastern Aleutians as light
snow will quickly change over to a rain/snow mix or all rain as
warmer temperatures work in.

Temperatures across coastal Southwest and the Kuskokwim Delta will
warm from the single digits and teens into the 20s through Friday,
but this warm-up will be short-lived as colder air nudges back in
for the weekend.

Gusty winds will continue the remainder of the week across the AKPEN
and eastern Aleutians as the gradient remains packed between ridging
in the Bering/North Pacific and lingering low pressure in the Gulf.
Ridging will temporarily rebuild over the Bering Friday and Saturday
with another system progged to eject out of the Kamchatka Peninsula
later in the weekend.

- PP

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Strong high pressure continues to be situated over the North
Pacific and extend north into the Bering Sea. To the east, over
the Gulf of Alaska, lower pressure dominates. As a result, gusty
gap winds will continue across the Alaska Peninsula and through
the western Gulf into next week. There continues to be good
agreement that a shortwave trough diving south across Southcentral
Alaska this weekend leads to another period of enhanced winds. As
a result, there is some potential for high winds through typical
areas, including the Matanuska Valley and the Valdez area/Thompson
Pass. Notably, however, this event looks to be fairly short-
lived in comparison to recent events, with winds peaking overnight
Saturday night and diminishing into Sunday.

Temperatures remain below average across Southcentral
Alaska, with the coldest area being the Copper River Basin, where
ambient temperatures will hover in the range of 20 to 40 below
zero. Southwest Alaska, however, will see warmer, somewhat moist
air ride up and over the ridge, bringing increased potential for
precipitation. A series of low pressure systems track up the
coast of Far Eastern Russia toward Western Alaska through mid-week.
This increases chances for precipitation in Southwest Alaska
Sunday onward. Precipitation is likely to be mostly snow, though
rain is possible along the coast and is increasingly likely
southward along the Alaska Peninsula. Southcentral Alaska looks to
remain mostly dry and downsloped in northwesterly flow, though
chances for some light snow to make it past the Alaska Range
increase for Tuesday night and Wednesday as low pressure
potentially tracks into the Gulf from Southwest Alaska.

Quesada

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Northerly winds
will taper off some Wednesday night.

&&


$$