Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

077
FXAK68 PAFC 071348
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
448 AM AKST Sat Nov 7 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

Mostly quiet across Southcentral this morning with temperatures in
the teens and 20s over the western half where lesser cloud cover has
allowed for much better radiational cooling overnight. Further
east across the Prince William Sound, northern Gulf coast, and
Copper Basin are a bit more active as the remnants of the
yesterday`s Gulf low has begun to move inland near Kayak Island.
Rain has been the dominant precipitation type for the lower
elevation coastal areas where temperatures are in the mid to upper
30s. Further inland, the Copper Basin has seen some light
snowfall for much of the overnight, but overall snow amounts
remain around 1-3 inches. Light snow will continue this morning as
the aforementioned surface low moves inland, but will start to
wind down from east to west by afternoon. Precipitation will
continue to move west with light snow or a rain/snow mix moving
across Prince William Sound through the morning. By mid-morning a
new surface low will form near the Barren Islands as a weak upper-
level low sits just south of Kodiak Island. A front will lift up
across the northwest Gulf with showers pushing across the western
Chugach Mountains. An increase in cross-barrier flow may hinder
most of the showers from making it over the mountains initially
due to downsloping, but as the cross-barrier flow drops off this
afternoon downsloping will wane and could see a better chance of
some light showers pushing into the western Kenai, Anchorage Bowl
and Mat Valley. However, by then, the front will have pushed
further inland as it rotates back to the west, and precipitation
will end. The exception will be Kodiak Island where the quasi-
stationary surface low will result in ongoing showery conditions
through the remainder of the weekend.

Looking ahead to early next week... A North Pacific low will lift
into the Gulf early Monday bringing Gale to Storm force winds over
the northern Gulf and another round of modest precipitation for the
coast, and some lighter precipitation for more inland areas. While
this system will pull warmer air north, Kodiak Island looks to
remain under broad Northwest flow with vertical profiles looking good
for snow over the island. Key details still need to be ironed out
and updates to the forecast can be anticipated as this system
approaches.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The quiet weather pattern continues across the region through the
weekend into early next week. Flow aloft continues to weaken
through today as the broad longwave troughing over the Bering
begins to break down, weakening the persistent northerly flow over
the Bering. However, chances for scattered rain and snow showers
continue across the Aleutians and Pribilof Islands through the
forecast period, while the Southwest Mainland continues to remain
mainly dry. Temperatures across Southwest Alaska trend cooler
through the remainder of the weekend into early next week, with
high temperatures struggling to reach 30 degrees for most of the
area and nighttime/morning low temperatures dropping into the low
20s to upper teens. A series of North Pacific lows through early
next week are expected to remain south of the Aleutian Chain, with
only a slight uptick in rain and snow shower chances across the
western Aleutians Saturday night through Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

The long term remains fairly active as a barrage of strong North
Pacific lows track south of the Aleutian Chain and enter the Gulf
through Friday.

Looking out west, there is good agreement of a gale force North
Pacific low skirting south of the Western Aleutian Chain Tuesday.
With a suppressed storm track, this system will continue eastward
and really only affect mariners south of the Chain. Out east,
model consensus is solid that a surface low will be weakening
Tuesday afternoon somewhere near the southern tip of the Kenai
Peninsula. This will help to reinforce northwesterly gap winds
across the Alaska Peninsula in the wake of this system. Coastal
Southcentral Alaska looks to be on track to see upslope enhanced
precipitation from this system. One tricky thing will be the low
placement and if we see cross barrier (downsloping) flow for the
northern Cook Inlet region with this system. The EC and its
ensembles is the most bullish on areas like Anchorage seeing snow,
while other models currently show a downslope hole across the
region in lee of the mountains. A second low enters the Gulf on
Tuesday, and the consensus is fair that this will round the Alaska
Panhandle and Southcentral coast as a deep area of low pressure
through Thursday and once again spread precipitation along the
Gulf coast. There is lower confidence at this time of
precipitation spilling over the mountains due to model spread of
the low`s location. The latest deterministic run of the GFS
currently is the most aggressive model, while other global models
show varying solutions due to model agreement breaking down near
the end of the long term.

-AM

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions with light and variable winds are expected
throughout the TAF period. A period of light snow is possible (30
to 40 percent) this afternoon into early this evening. However,
light southeast flow aloft should keep conditions VFR; although
ceilings may drop to or below 5,000 feet. Conditions clear back
out this evening as any snow ends. Fog looks less likely (less
than 10 percent) Sunday morning with higher clouds and drier
northerly flow in place by then.

&&


$$