Kenai, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

670
FXAK68 PAFC 181353
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
553 AM AKDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Monday night)...

The upper level trough is finally moving across Southcentral
this morning, and has been the main source of the lingering rain
and snow showers across the upper Cook Inlet Region and Mat-Su
Valley area overnight.

Today will be a break in between systems as stormier weather will
move back into Southcentral by Sunday morning. What has changed
since yesterday is that this next system looks to be warmer and
wetter than previously expected. Therefore the lower elevations
from the southern Susitna Valley southward (including Palmer,
Wasilla, Anchorage and the Kenai Peninsula) are expected to have
the precipitation type be all rain for late tonight into
tomorrow. From Talkeetna northward, the precipitation type will
likely be snow. Areas along the Alaska Range will see the snow
persist into Monday

Part of the reason the precipitation type is expected to remain
rain for Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley, will be that there
will be southeasterly surface winds developing which will keep
temperatures above freezing. For Anchorage, the Turnagain Arm
winds are expected to increase early Sunday morning and move over
town which might make the winds on Sunday more of an issue than
the rainfall.

Yet another short wave will then move over Southcentral late
Sunday night into Monday. This one will have a little more cold
air aloft with it than the one for Saturday night and Sunday.
therefore, there is more of a chance for a rain and snow mix
Sunday night into Monday morning as this unseasonably wet pattern
persists.

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3)...

The previously advertised strong North Pacific low has pushed
into the Bering, causing gusty winds in the Shemya and Adak and
Atka areas. Shemya is receiving the strongest winds, with gusts
between 60 and 70 mph. The low is pushing a large front into the
Eastern Aleutians (Unalaska, Nikolski), the Pribilof Islands, and
the Alaska Peninsula region. Some notable changes in the forecast
is a warmer air mass associated with the front. This is causing
precipitation to become mixed instead of strictly snowfall,
meaning that blowing snow potential has decreased. As the front
pushes inland by the early afternoon, some areas of blowing snow
are possible for the Kuskokwim Delta and especially Nunivak
Island, but this will be for a short period and will not be
significant. Temperatures will rise above freezing in the
Southwest Mainland by the mid afternoon, ending blowing snow
potential as precipitation becomes mixed. Snow accumulations in
the mainland have also been considerably reduced. Due to these
realities, the Winter Storm Warning for the Kuskokwim Delta and
the Winter Weather Advisory for the Lower Kuskokwim Valley have
been canceled.

The low will slowly move eastward through the weekend, slowly
weakening, but allowing for more gusty winds and mixed
precipitation in the Bering and Southwest Mainland. The low will
dissipate by Monday and winds will decrease in response. Another
notable change in this forecast is that temperatures will not drop
as much for the Southwest Mainland for early next week. This is
because a large low is tracking into the Bering by Monday, which
is preventing the Arctic trough up north from dropping as much. A
cool down is still expected, but low temperatures will only drop
into the 20s and maybe teens in the northern areas of the
Kuskokwim Delta.

-JAR

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through
Friday)...

A shift toward cooler and more unsettled weather is expected
across much of Alaska through the upcoming week. A pattern dropping
in from the north will bring colder air along with periods of
snow showers across the interior and Alaska Range.

Meanwhile, a weakening but still impactful storm over the southern
Bering sea will continue to create hazardous marine conditions,
including gusty winds and steady precipitation across the
Aleutians, Alaska Peninsula, and Southwest Alaska.

By early to mid next week, attention turns to Southcentral and
Southeast Alaska as a developing system pulls in a deep surge of
moisture. This will likely bring several days of rain and snow,
with heavier snow totals possible across the Alaska Range and
through higher elevation passes, along with increasing winds.

There is also a strong North Pacific low being monitored. While
current projections keep it south of the state, any northward
shift toward the Gulf of Alaska could lead to another round of
impactful weather late next week.

LM


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Scattered rain and snow showers will taper off later this
morning. Ceilings, in particular, will be slow to lift even after
the precipitation ends so expect mainly MVFR ceilings with occasional
IFR conditions this morning. Ceilings will lift to VFR by this
afternoon. Winds will then become the biggest issue late Saturday
night as Southeasterly Turnagain Arm winds will move over the
airport in conjunction with an approaching front. However, these
southeasterly winds will also keep temperatures above freezing so
the precipitation Saturday night into Sunday should be all rain.

&&

$$