Kalifornsky, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

080
FXAK68 PAFC 120047
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
447 PM AKDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Discussion:

This afternoon cold air aloft and partly sunny skies are
supporting the development of scattered snow showers across
Southcentral, while southeasterly flow produces upslope
precipitation for coastal ranges. Precipitation amounts are
expected to remain light and taper off through the evening hours
as the trough axis moves farther toward the interior.


For Saturday, a strong low descending south from over Nunivak
Island will continue across the Alaska Peninsula, and merge with
a North Pacific low south of the Aleutian Chain and tracking
eastward. As the North Pacific low rotates up across the AKPEN,
the pressure gradient steepens between Kodiak Island to the
southern Kenai Peninsula bringing increasing clouds and widespread
gales to the northern Gulf. Gale to storm force winds are
expected to develop on Saturday morning through the Barren Islands
and Kamishak Bay. Strong winds are also expected across southern
tip of the Kenai Peninsula. As the front lifts north on Sunday,
precipitation resumes across coastal Southcentral. Precipitation
might start out as snow for most locations with a change-over to
rain as warmer temperatures move in. Sunday night, snow levels
increase to 1200 to 2000 ft. Rain totals are expected to remain
light through Monday for inland locations while coastal ranges
once again receive the bulk of the expected precipitation.


&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days
1 through 3: This afternoon through Monday afternoon)...

Five Winter Weather Advisories have been issued as two lows bring
impactful weather across the Bering Sea and Southwest Alaska
through Sunday night. Areas under the Winter Weather Advisories
are (in chronological order based on the onset of hazardous
conditions):
- Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island: Through Saturday morning
  due to blowing snow.
- Western Cape: Through Sunday morning due to prolonged snowfall,
  with blowing snow along the immediate coast tonight.
- Pribilof Islands: From tonight through Sunday morning, due to
  blowing snow.
- Eastern Aleutians: From early Saturday morning through early
  Sunday afternoon due to blowing snow and strong winds.
- Southern Alaska Peninsula (from King Cove west): From late
  Saturday night through early Sunday morning, due to blowing snow
  and strong winds.
- Heavy to extreme freezing spray is also forecast along the sea
  ice edge through Sunday.

Overall, confidence is high that as these two lows move across the
Bering Sea, there will be strong winds and areas of light to
moderate snow. What continues to be a bit uncertain is where the
worst conditions will occur. The Advisories encompass a long
duration because we`re trying to capture when hazardous conditions
may occur. As forecast confidence increases, it`s possible that
the length of these Advisories may be trimmed down.

One other area of uncertainty is temperatures, which will affect
precipitation type, snow accumulations, and how transportable snow
will be. This will all, in turn, affect how hazardous and
impactful the weather will be. For the advisory covering the
Western Capes, it`s possible that rain may mix in with snow, or
that snow totals may be lower than currently forecast if
temperatures warm much above freezing. For the Eastern Aleutians
and Alaska Peninsula, while winds are very strong, we are not
anticipating that visibilities will drop much below one-half mile
because temperatures will be right around freezing. In fact, while
strong winds continue for the Southern Alaska Peninsula through
late Sunday afternoon, the Advisory is set to end in the early
afternoon because warming temperatures should keep conditions
from becoming too poor.

Overall, there will be no shortage of impactful weather. Please
exercise caution if you`ll be outside or traveling during this
time, and please secure loose items that may blow around in strong
winds. Even if you aren`t located in an area that`s under an
advisory, you may still experience impactful weather in the form
of strong winds, as will be the case for interior Bristol Bay.
Looking ahead to Monday, there will be a brief lull as the two
lows exit into the Gulf. However, another North Pacific low (with
winds to gale or perhaps even storm force) is poised to approach
the Aleutian Islands beginning Monday afternoon.

-Chen

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7/Tuesday through Friday)...

There is an energetic high amplitude pattern across the Alaskan
upper level forecast, aided by some pretty strong jet support. The
main feature is an elongated upper trough extending from the
Arctic through the Bering into the North Pacific. A series of weak
low centers merge to briefly intensify the trough on Wednesday
and Thursday, and begin its Eastward track along the Alaska
Peninsula. This trough is expected to weaken and move through
Interior Alaska by the end of the week. The upper ridge stretching
from Western Canada into Northern Alaska weakens more slowly
through the period. A well clustered blend of GFS / ECMWF / UKMET
and Canadian models maintains good continuity with the large scale
features, but considerable uncertainty is evident in the smaller
details through the forecast.

The surface weather portion opens with a decaying low and front
expending its energies with moderate rains along the coast East of
Prince William Sound, with moderate snow inland over higher
terrain. A second, more developed low South of the Eastern
Aleutians spreads locally moderate snow or rain and snow mixed
changing to rain from the Central Aleutians to the Alaska
Peninsula Tuesday. Moderate rain spread over Southwest Alaska and
Pribilof Island, diminishing Wednesday. This low`s front moves
over Kodiak Island late Tuesday and continues spreading moderate
to heavy rain over the Southcentral Coast, with snow inland
through the week. Over the Far Western parts of the chain, another
front brings locally moderate rain Thursday through Friday.

- Kutz

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC... VFR conditions are expected for most of the TAF period,
but snow showers are developing over the mountains and may move
over the terminal between 1 and 6Z, bringing cigs and vis down to
MVFR or possibly briefly IFR should the shower be intense enough.
Southeast winds bending into the terminal through Turnagain Arm
are possible late tonight into very early Saturday morning. Strong
down-inlet flow ensues Saturday morning.

&&
$$