Kalifornsky, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

285
FXAK68 PAFC 201228
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
428 AM AKDT Sun Jul 20 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Today through Tuesday)...

The northern side of a Pacific ridge continues to sit over
Southcentral this morning, leading to continued calm winds across
most of the region. Temperatures overnight have remained
seasonably warm in the mid to upper 50s at lower elevations
overnight thanks to a mix of mid and upper level cloud cover
spilling over the ridge axis. Upstream from the ridge in place, a
shortwave trough is now moving up into Bristol Bay and the Alaska
Peninsula. This disturbance is soon expected to move up into the
Cook Inlet region and become the primary focus for rainfall
potential through tonight.

Overall, the potential for periods of light rain across much of
the Kenai Peninsula, Anchorage and Mat-Su Valleys today continues
to trend upwards. A plume of 1 to 1.5 inches of precipitable
water is poking up into Bristol Bay this morning, and newer model
guidance seems to be capturing this moisture plume much better
compared to yesterday. We now have increased confidence light rain
will overspread much of the the Cook Inlet and Mat-Su region from
west to east as the shortwave approaches. There is still a bit of
uncertainty in terms of how quickly the lower atmosphere will
saturate, but just about everywhere from the Talkeetna Mountains
south to Homer will likely see some amount of measurable rain
between about midday today and late tonight as the upper level
wave and moisture axis move across. Even so, it still looks like
areas that will get a boost from southwesterly and upslope flow
across the Anchorage Hillside up into the western slopes of the
Talkeetnas will see the heaviest rainfall totals from this event,
mostly in the 0.1 to 0.3 inch range. Meanwhile, most valley
locations, including Talkeetna, Palmer and Anchorage, are only
expected to pick up around a tenth of an inch before rainfall lets
up later tonight into early Monday.

A more notable pattern shift will begin to take place between
Monday and Tuesday as a longwave trough out in the Bering begins
to shift east into the Interior and finally flatten out the
longwave ridge to the south. Monday still looks like a relatively
sunny and warm day in between systems moving over the top of the
weakening ridge, with quite a few lower elevations on track to
approach 70F for highs on Monday afternoon. As the ridge in place
weakens further, prevailing flow will begin to turn more westerly
and then northwesterly by Tuesday as another more potent trough
moves across the Alaska Range and digs into Southcentral. Gusty
offshore gap winds are expected to pick up along the Gulf coast as
early as Monday evening, especially across the eastern Kenai
Peninsula and through the Kamishak Gap into the Barrens. The
strongest sustained west to northwest wind could reach gale force
by Tuesday morning, mainly near or just east of the Barrens.
Upper level cooling near the trough will also favor some degree
of destabilization developing in the atmospheric profile,
promoting another round of shower chances across the Copper Basin
in particular on Tuesday afternoon.

-AS

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: Today through Tuesday)...

Morning satellite imagery shows the northeastward departure of a
Bering low that has been quasi-stationary over the last couple of
days. However, its occluded front continues to push eastward,
bringing rainfall to Bristol Bay and Kuskokwim Delta regions, and
clipping mainly the western most areas of the Kuskokwim Valley.
Current radar this morning shows rain showers moving across
Togiak, Twin Hills, and northward to Bethel and points eastward. A
dominant southwest wind will pick up to around 15 kts or so for
these areas as the day wears on. Pressure gradient is tightening
as a ridge of high pressure located in the North Pacific continues
to extend northward. Combined with lower pressure closer to the
low, the gradient will support a swath of small craft winds this
afternoon for the Bering Sea open waters and the Pribilof Islands,
extending northeastward to Nunivak Island. The Kuskokwim coastal
areas will see an increase in wind heading into Monday and could
gust up to small craft, but the strongest winds will likely remain
offshore closer to Nunivak Island. Looking ahead to Monday and
Tuesday, ridging continues to build in from the North Pacific,
resulting in a continuation of patchy fog and low stratus across
the Bering and Aleutians.


-McCormick

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through
Saturday)...

Medium range models show the low currently over the Bering Sea
slowly progressing northeast toward the Chukchi Sea over the few
days. This causes a flattening of the ridge and a turn to
northwest flow over all of Southwest, South Central, and the
Aleutian Chain by the the middle of the week. Embedded shortwaves
are likely in this pattern, however moisture availability may be
somewhat limited. We`ll be watching for the low over the Chukchi
to drop south, potentially bringing higher precip chances to much
of the region by the end of the week.


&&


.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR ceilings this morning will likely drop to MVFR by late
morning/early afternoon as several troughs move across the region.
The timing of rain continues to be tricky to forecast with these
weaker troughs; a chance of rain persists from this morning
through Monday morning, with the greatest chance of seeing
rainfall from late this afternoon into this evening. Rain chances
diminish greatly by late Monday morning. Winds remain variable
and light.

&&


$$