Fairbanks, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

599
FXAK68 PAFC 150214
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
614 PM AKDT Wed May 14 2025

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A strong, nearly stacked low positioned over the Shumagin Islands
this afternoon will rotate northward across the southern AKPEN
tonight. Its front, which is currently lifting north across the Gulf
and the southern Kenai Peninsula, will weaken then stall as the
parent low shifts back to the northwest. Impacts from this system
continue to be strong winds through the Barren Islands, Kamishak
Bay, and down Shelikof Strait where gale to storm force winds have
been common this afternoon and are expected to continue through this
evening before gradually decreasing. Widespread precipitation will
be focused over the Gulf and coastal zones along the eastern Kenai
and Prince William Sound. Strong cross-barrier flow over the Kenai
and Chugach Mountains will result in mostly dry conditions for the
western Kenai Peninsula north to the Mat-Su Valley, though abundant
cloud cover will result in slightly cooler temperatures the next few
days. Gusty gap winds will decrease this evening as gradient relaxes
but pick back up by tomorrow afternoon. Another disturbance will
work its eastwards then rotate around the periphery of the
aforementioned low...sending another front lifting up across the
Gulf with another wave of precipitation for Kodiak Island and
coastal areas along the western Gulf. Further north, a meandering
area of low pressure in the Canadian Yukon will result in troughing
setting up over the Tanana Valley. Weak forcing along the southern
Alaska Range will allow for some light precipitation over the
northern half of the Copper Valley by Thursday afternoon through
Friday.

- PP

&&


.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS
(Days 1 through 3: This afternoon through Saturday evening)...

The forecast remains on track through the short-term period. A
strong low pressure system currently in the vicinity of the
Shumagin Islands will continue northward across the Alaska
Peninsula (AKPEN) and into the eastern Bering Sea through Thursday
morning. The frontal system continues lifting through the Gulf of
Alaska and wrapping back over the eastern Bering Sea. Gusty
easterly winds through Kamishak Gap will persist into interior
Bristol Bay through Thursday afternoon before diminishing Thursday
evening and turning onshore out of the southwest for Friday.
While interior locations will be mostly downsloped with the
easterly flow off the mountain ranges, light rain will continue
across the Bristol Bay coast and AKPEN through Thursday and push
inland Thursday evening as the gusty easterly winds diminish.
Showers become more confined to the terrain/mountain ranges Friday
and into Saturday as the valleys and population centers dry out.

The Bering Sea region and Aleutians remain mostly quiet with some
showers across the Western Aleutians through Thursday afternoon
in association with a weakening area of low pressure in the
western Bering. The Pribilofs will remain overcast and showery
through most of Friday as the area contends with the remnants of
the low set to move into the eastern Bering Thursday morning.
Meanwhile, a ridge of high pressure will build into the Western
Aleutians/western Bering for Friday. This does not appear to be an
overly amplified ridge causing widespread fog to develop; instead
causing more misty conditions across the Western
Aleutians/western Bering. This ridge will weaken as it moves east
over the Central Aleutians for Saturday. A Kamchatka low sends its
front to the Western Aleutians/western Bering Saturday which will
bring a round of gusty southerly winds and rain to the area.

&&


.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

An extensive upper level low covers the region during the
forecast period. The main portion stretches from the Russian Far
East across the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf of
Alaska through midweek, briefly interrupted by weak ridges passing
through the pattern on Sunday and Tuesday. Upper level jet
support remains to the South over the North Pacific. Upper low
centers slip through the pattern along and over the Aleutians into
the Gulf of Alaska. Model guidance is in decent agreement through
most of the forecast, but surface feature development and
movement hold on to the most uncertainty.

Scattered showers will be the order of the day across the
Southern Mainland through Wednesday. A well developed low
approaches the AKPEN before brushing past Kodiak Island into the
Gulf of Alaska through Tuesday. A strong low and front spreads
rain over the Western Aleutians and Bering Sunday pushing across
to the Central Aleutians before curving back into the North
Pacific for Wednesday.

- Kutz


&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions expected. Southeasterly winds will continue out
of Turnagain Arm through the evening, with peak gusts up to 25
kts across the terminal late this afternoon. Light northerly winds
return across Anchorage tonight around 09Z. A Turnagain Arm wind
will redevelop tomorrow afternoon, bringing southeasterly winds up
to 25 kts to the terminal through the evening hours and a similar
fashion to Wednesday.

&&


$$