Eielson AFB, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

365
FXAK69 PAFG 141215
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
415 AM AKDT Sun Jun 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska tapping moisture from the
tropics is expected to bring rain showers for much of the state
towards the end of this weekend and into next week. Highest
rainfall totals are expected in the Brooks Range where some areas
could see 1" or more. Today, Delta Junction and the Yukon Flats
are expected to have fire weather concerns with gusty winds and
dry conditions this afternoon. Coastal areas along the West Coast
and North Slope continue to experience fog that is expected to
continue through the weekend. Elsewhere, the warmest conditions so
far this season are expected to continue today, with some areas
in the Interior possibly seeing 80F, especially the Yukon Flats.

&&

.KEY WEATHER MESSAGES...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Red Flag Warning for Delta Junction and Isabel Pass this
  afternoon. South winds gusting up to 60 mph and RH values as low
  as 30%.

- Red Flag Warning for the Yukon Flats this afternoon with RH
  values as low as 20% and south/southeast winds up to 15 mph and
  gusts up to 25 mph.

- Wind Advisory for Isabel Pass this afternoon and evening for
  south winds 30 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph.

- The warmest temperatures of the summer so far with temperatures
  approaching 80F are occurring under mostly sunny skies primarily
  for the northern Interior today.

- Breezy conditions are expected Sunday through Tuesday with
  easterly winds on Sunday and southwesterly winds on Monday and
  Tuesday as a storm system lifts north across the Interior. This
  system also brings widespread clouds on Sunday followed by rain
  chances Sunday night into Monday morning in addition to cooler
  temperatures.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Areas of low stratus and fog are expected to persist through
  the weekend across St. Lawrence Island and portions of the
  Norton Sound coastline.

- Highs mainly around 70F with the warmest Interior valleys
  approaching 80F and the coolest coastal spots staying around
  60F. Highs mainly in the 40s and 50s on St. Lawrence Island.

- A frontal boundary stalls roughly between Marshall and Ambler
  from Sunday through Tuesday focusing scattered showers and a few
  embedded afternoon thunderstorms and around 0.25" of rain with
  locally higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

North Slope and Brooks Range..
- Seasonably mild on the Arctic Coast with highs in the 30s and
  40s through the weekend. Warmer in the Plains and Brooks Range
  with highs in the 60s and even 70s.

- Moderate to locally heavy rainfall for the central and portions
  of the eastern Brooks Range and adjacent portions of the North
  Slope between Monday and Tuesday. Two day rainfall amounts of at
  least 0.5" are likely and a narrow band of heavier rainfall of
  1" or more is possible. The exact placement of the heaviest rain
  is uncertain, but Anaktuvuk Pass north to Deadhorse seems most
  likely to achieve those higher totals.

- The combination of snowmelt and rainfall is expected to result
  in rising river levels early next week, but rivers are mostly
  ice free so ice jams are not expected at this time.

&&

.FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION...
Upper-level troughing is expected to dig into the state today,
bringing one more day of relatively warm weather to northern
portions of the Interior while the West Coast and southern
Interior are expected to be a little cooler with clouds and rain
showers. As the low moves shortwave energy moves northward over
the state, embedded thunderstorms are possible, especially from
the YK Delta northward towards the Brooks Range. This low is also
tapping moisture from the tropics, intensifying rainfall totals.
Areas along the West Coast could see totals as high as 0.25" with
locally higher amounts possible with thunderstorms. The Brooks
Range and Deadhorse are expected to receive the most amount of
precipitation with this system with totals as high as 1" or more
in some areas by Tuesday evening. These high rainfall amounts are
expected to result in rivers rising, though ice jams are not
expected due to ice already moving out of the North Slope rivers.
As this energy moves northward gusty winds will be likely for
northern Alaska, prompting a Wind Advisory for Isabel Pass for
this afternoon and evening. With gusty winds, low RHs, and high
temperatures near 80F, fire weather conditions are possible today
for the Yukon Flats. RHs near 30% and gusty southerly winds as
high as 60 mph will also lead to fire weather concerns for Delta
Junction today.

By Tuesday afternoon, the upper-level troughing over state starts
to become upper-level ridging, leading to temperatures to rise
again and isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms. More about
this in the Extended Forecast section.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tomorrow looks to be the most active fire weather day in the short
term, with a new Red Flag Warning in effect for the Yukon Flats.
Localized areas of the Yukon Flats will see temperatures above 80F,
minimum relative humidities between 20 and 25 percent, and
south/southeasterly winds up to 15 mph. Stronger wind gusts are
possible in the afternoon and evening. Sunday will also be the
second day of Red Flag Warnings for Isabel Pass and Delta Junction.
While the aspect contributing most to yesteday`s red flag conditions
were dry conditions, the primary concern with today`s fire weather
conditions will be gusty southerly winds up to 55 mph. These winds
are expected to weaken by Sunday evening, with periods of gusty
winds up to 20 mph possible across higher elevations of the Interior
through midweek. Isolated wet thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon for a portion of the state extending from the southwest
coast around Mountain Village up through the
southwestern/southcentral slopes of the Brooks Range. Additional
scattered showers are likely across the Western Interior and Brooks
Range through Wednesday as anomalously high amounts of moisture are
advected in the area by a low in the Gulf of Alaska. Looking ahead,
overall thunderstorm activity is expected to remain fairly quiet
through Tuesday with very isolated to isolated thunderstorms
returning to the Interior by the second half of the week. High
temperatures are expected to remain at or below 70F before warming
up again into the low to mid 70s by Thursday afternoon as ridging
builds back in over the state. As a more summer-like pattern settles
in late next week, a trend towards more near critical fire weather
days is possible.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Most of the North Slope Rivers have broken up with little to no
impacts. Moving forward as summer arrives and temperatures rise,
there is a potential for snowmelt relative river stage rises.
Temperatures stay mostly above freezing tonight and warm
substantially on Sunday, perhaps above 60F in spots due to
downsloping off the Brooks Range. Rain chances increase late on
Sunday and may include a few embedded evening thunderstorms before
transitioning to steady stratiform rain Sunday night into Monday
night. Moderate rainfall amounts around 0.5" are likely across the
central Brooks Range and adjacent North Slope foothills where most
of the remaining snowpack is located. Locally higher amounts in
excess of 1" are possible (~50% chance) between Sunday evening and
Tuesday afternoon. This could lead to rapid melt and rising river
levels due to the combination of rainfall and snowmelt. This
contrasts with last year`s late breakup when the snowmelt all
entered the river systems while ice was mainly still in place.

Rising of water levels in rivers can be expected late this weekend
or early next week.

&&

.EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...Wednesday through Saturday.
After an unsettled beginning to the week, model guidance supports a
ridge building over Southeast Alaska starting on Wednesday. There is
still uncertainty in this ridge`s strength and extent over the
state, as well as the strength and location any disturbances in the
vicinity of the ridge. As the ridge builds, temperatures will return
to seasonable norms, but embedded disturbances will keep the
potential for scattered showers across the state. Thunderstorm
activity is possible on Wednesday and Thursday, but model guidance
indicates increasing chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
on Friday and Saturday. Typical summer conditions might be sticking
around for more than a few days this time around, which is fitting
given that the solstice is a week from today.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ933.
     Red Flag Warning for AKZ937.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801-850.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ814-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$

Lewis
Schlezinger - Extended Forecast
Santiago/Schlezinger - Fire Weather