Big Lake, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

539
FXAK68 PAFC 042337
AFDAFC

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
337 PM AKDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

A low shifting into the Gulf of Alaska and high pressure ridging
building in the northern Interior, will start a warming/drying
trend across Southcentral Alaska beginning this evening. Coastal
areas will, as usual, remain in a wetter pattern as the trough
lingers along the edge of the coast through tomorrow. Rain along
the coast will taper off late Sunday night into early Monday
morning as the low exits into the southeastern Gulf of Alaska.

The warming trend will continue into Monday as the low drifts into
the southeastern Gulf and as the ridge over the central and
northern Mainland continues to build. Afternoon highs could breach
70 over interior valleys, and perhaps even 75 in a few spots.
Potential for thunderstorms will also increase markedly once again
as instability increases with the warming temperatures. The
highest chance (around 70%) for isolated to widely scattered
storms will be focused over the Talkeetnas and Susitna Valley.

KM/AS

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3/Tonight through Tuesday)...

A large upper level low centered over the Alaska Peninsula is
slowly tracking eastward into the Gulf. Cool and cloudy conditions
continue across Southwest Alaska today. Rain is mostly confined
to the Bristol Bay/Alaska Peninsula area, with just a few showers
elsewhere. A surface low has formed just ahead of the upper center
south of the Alaska Peninsula and Kodiak Island. Cold air
advection across the Alaska Peninsula is leading to strengthening
northwesterly flow, especially from wide bay to Chignik.
Meanwhile, a weak low and warm front are lifting slowly northward
along the Aleutian chain, leading to light rain and gusty easterly
winds from Atka westward. Benign conditions prevail across the
remainder of the forecast Bering/Aleutians under the influence of
of a ridge of high pressure.

A big change in the weather is in store for Southwest AK over the
next couple days. As the upper low completely exits to the Gulf
and Southcentral tonight through Sunday, ridging will begin to
build down from northern AK and into Southwest AK. The strength of
the ridge in model guidance is not as strong as in previous days.
However, this does not fundamentally change the forecast. Expect
partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures warming into the 60s to
70s, and development of afternoon/evening showers and
thunderstorms. Convection will initiate along the thermal trough,
which will roughly be centered over the Kuskokwim Valley, and will
be aided by weak short-waves embedded in the upper level flow.
Storm motion will cause showers and thunderstorms to track
southward into the Bristol Bay region. This pattern will hold
through Monday. Models are trending toward faster arrival of a
trough from the Bering Sea. This will push the axis of greatest
convection eastward on Monday, favoring the Kuskokwim Valley
eastward to the western Alaska Range and northeastern interior of
Bristol Bay. Model spread grows much larger for Tuesday, with
differences in the progression of a storm system across the Bering
Sea. If this storm reaches Southwest AK, would expect a return to
cooler, cloudier, and more stable conditions with areas of rain.
If the slower solution works out, there could be another day of
convection.

The pattern out across the North Pacific and Aleutians is fairly
complex and model guidance has been shifting from day to day.
However, the general weather trends remain the same. The weak
surface low and front will continue to lift northward into the
Bering tonight through Sunday, bringing with it a very warm and
moist airmass. This will lead to areas of rain, low clouds, and
fog. A large upper low southwest of the westernmost Aleutian
Islands will track into the Bering by Monday. Models then vary on
the interaction with a separate weaker upper low in the Bering and
overall progression across the Bering toward Southwest AK. No
matter what, expect reinvigoration of the current low and frontal
system, with rain and stronger winds spreading eastward early next
week.

-SEB

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Wednesday through Saturday)...

Unsettled weather and increased winds expected midweek for the
eastern Bering Sea, Southwest AK, and the AKPEN as an upper low
traverses the Bristol Bay and AKPEN region. This low will then
move out out into the western Gulf with increasing rainfall
chances for Kodiak Island and the eastern Kenai Peninsula. During
this same time, a lingering trough over the Copper Basin looks to
bring chances for showers and thunderstorms depending on residual
cloud cover and instability. Scattered showers and generally
cloudy conditions possible for the rest of Southcentral. The Gulf
low will slowly meander eastward across the Gulf before gradually
dissipating by next weekend.

A secondary trough looks to move out of Kamchatka by late in the
week with another round of showers possible for Southwest AK;
however, long-range models differ significantly on the timing,
position, and strength of this trough. Models are also hinting at
ridging setting up over the western and central Aleutians with
several shortwave troughs moving along the periphery of the
ridge...which would allow for periods of showers by late in the
week.

-PP

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...A front moving up Cook Inlet this afternoon will shift
winds to the southeast late this afternoon after it passes over
the airport. The rain showers in the vicinity should also taper
off and ceilings increase with the trough passage and onset of the
Turnagain Arm winds. These winds should then diminish by late in
the evening and switch back to the northeast after midnight and
remain northerly through Sunday morning.

&&


$$