Troy, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

283
FXUS64 KBMX 112308
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
608 PM CDT Fri Apr 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 123 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025

This afternoon.

An amplified pattern was in place over much of the country this
afternoon with deep troughing over the Tennessee Valley Region
with broad ridging over much of Mexico and the Desert Southwest.
The forecast area is positioned between a cold front that pushed
through the area now extending from west to east along the
Northern Gulf Coast and a reinforcing cold front that was moving
south toward the area from Central Tennessee. Clouds were
increasing with shower activity increasing across the northern and
western portions of the forecast area since midday.

Expect further increases in clouds from the north with isolated
to scattered showers and the potential for a few thunderstorms
this afternoon as an impulse dives southeast around the base of
the trough while the secondary surface cold front continues to
advance southward into the area. Winds will be from the northwest
at 7-14 mph and breezy at times. High temperatures will range from
the mid 60s in the higher terrain east and northeast to readings
in the lower 70s far south.

Tonight.

The mid-level longwave trough will sharpen with time overnight as
it becomes positioned further east of the forecast area while
broad ridging amplifies over Northern Mexico and much of New
Mexico, Arizona and West Texas. The secondary surface front will
push southeast toward the Interstate 85 corridor after sunset and
the best chances for showers and some storms will also shift
southeast through the evening and into the overnight hours.
Elongated surface high pressure extending from Southeast Canada
southwest to over the ArkLaTex will build southeastward toward the
area overnight.

Look for mostly cloudy skies with isolated showers and a few
thunderstorms this evening, then lingering showers overnight with
chances becoming increasingly confined to our southeast counties.
Clouds will decrease through the pre-dawn hours, allowing
temperatures to drop more across the north/northeast counties
before sunrise. Winds will be from the north at 4-8 mph. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 30s in the normally colder
sheltered valley locations northeast to the mid 40s south.

Saturday.

Deep troughing will become centered over the Eastern Seaboard
during the day on Saturday while robust ridging expands further
over Northern Mexico extending northward over much of the Plains
and Intermountain west. The surface cold front will consolidate to
our southeast as it pushes southeast, clearing much of the
Florida Peninsula by mid morning while expansive surface high
pressure located across the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley
Regions continues to build further southeast into the region.

Expect mostly sunny skies areawide by midday Saturday with dry
conditions across the area. Winds will be from the north at 5-10
mph. High temperatures will range from the lower 60s far north and
in the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 60s south
and west.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025

Surface ridging will be in place across ERN Conus for the latter
half of the weekend. With light/near calm winds and a clear sky
expected for Saturday night into early Sunday, we could see a
little patchy frost in our far NE counties toward sunrise. By
Monday, the ridge center will shift SE toward FL and a SW low
level flow will commence. Look for warmer temperature readings for
Monday (generally lower to mid 80s) in response. Another
reinforcing cold front will move through late Monday into early
Tuesday and will help to cool things down for lows again and get
rid of the 80s for a couple of days. There is a very small chance
of precip with the Monday front, but will leave it out of the
forecast grids for now. Dry weather is expected for Tuesday/
Wednesday with more surface ridging. Small rain chances return by
late Thursday as the next ridge weakens and pushes toward the
Atlantic Coast.

08

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2025

A warming trend will develop to start the extended period as ridging
builds across the area, but not before a chilly start to the day on
Sunday. Some patchy frost will be possible in the north and
northeast, then temperatures will warm into the mid 70s. Zonal flow
aloft and southwesterly low-level flow will support warm conditions
on Monday with highs in the lower 80s. This warm up will occur ahead
of a weak cold front associated with a surface low moving from the
Great Lakes to Ontario. The front will move through the area on
Tuesday. The NBM is is still holding off on PoPs due to weak forcing
and limited moisture, but could see enough support for isolated
showers at least. High pressure will build across the region behind
the departing cold front, and dry, seasonal conditions are expected
by the middle of next week. With the pattern remaining progressive,
another system may bring rain chances to the area towards the end
of the work week.

86/Martin

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 605 PM CDT FRI APR 11 2025

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the region
early this evening. This activity should wane over the next few
hours as we lose daytime heating. Light north-northwest winds
overnight will gradually increase by mid day Saturday with gusts
around 20 knots likely. Have introduced a brief TEMPO for MVFR
cigs/vis around sunrise as some lingering low level moisture
remains in place.

95/Castillo

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Scattered showers will be possible through early evening for
portions of Central Alabama. Winds become more northerly and taper
down tonight. Dry, rain-free, conditions are expected over the
weekend with min RH in the 30-35% range on Saturday and Sunday
afternoons. A cold front will approach the area on Monday, but
rain chances are too low to mention at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     36  64  36  74 /  20   0   0   0
Anniston    37  64  38  75 /  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  40  64  42  74 /  20   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  44  67  42  76 /  10   0   0   0
Calera      43  65  42  75 /  20   0   0   0
Auburn      44  65  43  74 /  10   0   0   0
Montgomery  44  67  42  74 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        44  67  42  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....08
AVIATION...95/Castillo