Tillmans Corner, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

868
FXUS64 KMOB 231724
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1224 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New Aviation...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Overall, not much going on today and Saturday as mainly zonal flow
today becomes more northwesterly tomorrow. Dry conditions will
persist today as upper ridging builds over the central US.
However despite drier northwesterly flow aloft, tis the season
where we really can`t get away from the moisture. With a series of
subtle shortwaves expected to move through the northwesterly flow,
rain chances will likely return on Saturday. Scattered storms will
be possible during the afternoon on Saturday with the best chances
along and north of highway 84. We will need to keep a close eye as
a Mesoscale Convective Complex (MCC) will approach from the
northwest ahead of the shortwave. The question is does this
complex make it intact to our area as it butts up against the
strengthening ridge. Models tend to struggle with these complexes
and their outflow so it would be something to watch. If it does
make it to our area then some damaging winds may be possible and a
larger portion of the area will likely see rain. Nonetheless, pop
up storms will be possible and the overall profile would support
the potential for some damaging wind gusts and maybe some hail
mixed in with the strongest of storms.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side with highs in the 90s
and lows increasing back into the upper 60s to low 70s. BB-8

Sunday through Thursday...

A typical summer diurnal pattern unfolds through the period as
numerous mini-shortwaves and impulses pass over our region in a
mid/upper level pattern that fluctuates from a southwesterly to at
times nearly zonal flow. Plenty of moisture will be available for at
least scattered showers and thunderstorms each day, but appears to
maximize on Tuesday when precipitable waters values reach around 2.1
inches and surface boundary enters into and stalls across our area.
The timing of the highest rain chance is not set in stone, so
adjustments will likely be needed. The highest rainfall totals over
the five day period will occur northwest of I-65 where widespread
amounts from 1.5 to 2.5 inches of rain is forecast. Locally higher
amounts up to 4 inches is possible. At this time it is still too
early to determine if there could be any local severe impacts.

High temperatures Sunday should reach the middle 90s, with apparent
temperatures (heat indices) in upper 90s to lower 100s. Highs will
then range from the middle 80s to the lower 90s through Thursday.
Low temperatures between 69 to 76 degrees Sunday and Monday nights
will cool slightly Tuesday and Wednesday nights due to the higher
rain chances. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions with local drops to mid MVFR levels the first few
hours after sunrise expected through the forecast. Light winds
expected overnight into the early morning, with a seabreeze
bringing onshore winds around 10 kts this afternoon into this
evening.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 402 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

No hazards are expected with a light onshore flow developing over
the weekend and persisting into next week. BB-8

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob