Pelham, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

750
FXUS64 KBMX 250503
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1203 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026

- There is a medium risk of flash flooding today and Tuesday,
  especially in urban and other poor drainage areas. Rainfall
  amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected with locally higher 3 to 4
  inch amounts.

- A low risk remains for strong thunderstorms with gusty winds
  this afternoon.

- Patchy dense fog will develop early this morning. Use caution
  while driving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026

Little change in the weather pattern is expected Monday and
Tuesday as a broad upper low over the ArkLaTex becomes trapped
underneath a building ridge over the central portions of North
America. Deep layer southerly to southwesterly flow between this
feature and a strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic
will continue to funnel deep tropical-like moisture into Central
Alabama, while several embedded vorticity maxima/MCVs emanating
from convection over the Gulf provide forcing for ascent. First
off, recent rainfall and some patches of clear skies are
currently resulting in patchy dense fog developing. Widespread
dense fog development remains uncertain given increasing low to
mid level clouds expected later in the night, but the newest HREF
probabilities for dense fog have increased. We will monitor the
need for a dense fog advisory for portions of the area overnight.
Similar to previous days, we expect some additional shower
development in our southwest counties in the early morning hours.
Then showers and storms will increase in coverage and lift
northward through the morning hours and continuing into the
afternoon, with outflows eventually propagating further east
where the higher instability will be. There will continue to be
around 20-25 kts of 0-6km bulk shear resulting in some loosely
organized multicells with gusty winds. However, mid-level lapse
rates will continue to be weak in the tropical-like air mass with
saturated profiles. Water loading will be a limiting factor for
strong updrafts, and with a lack of stronger updrafts that should
limit for the stronger downdrafts and associated
downbursts/microbursts. Therefore similar to Sunday the severe
weather potential is nonzero but very low.

Locally heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered flash flooding
continues to be the main concern. Storms will be moving but the
unidirectional flow will allow for some training, with favorable
upper-level divergence in the right entrance region of an upper-
level jet streak. High PWATs and deep warm cloud layers will also
be favorable for efficient rainfall rates. Limiting factors will
be the modest 850mb moisture transport, and modest instability
which could limit heavier rainfall rates. Still, the USGS
National Water Dashboard indicates streamflows running above
normal to well above normal along the I-65 corridor and in
southwestern portions of Central Alabama, while still running
below to well below normal in southeastern and east-central
portions of Central Alabama. The placement and magnitude of the
heavier bands of rainfall remain uncertain, but given the recent
rainfall and some HREF members indicating some 4+ inch amounts,
we have issued a Flood Watch for today and Tuesday covering where
the best overlap of heavy rainfall potential and lower flash
guidance appears to be.

By Wednesday the upper low will have opened up into a wave and
weakened, and the ridge to our east will build westward a bit.
Still, southerly flow and a moist air mass will remain in place
through Saturday, resulting in continued high rain chances, with
some weak troughing undercutting the building ridge over the
north-central CONUS by later in the week. Some additional heavy
rainfall concerns may develop by then. By the weekend an omega
block is expected to develop over central Canada. The downstream
trough over the northeast CONUS will eventually cause a
transition to northwest flow aloft, and also cause a back door
cold front to potentially approach the area. How far this front
and associated drier air behind it makes it is uncertain.

32/JDavis

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 657 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026

The active weather pattern is set to continue. Tonight,
precipitation will become isolated, but flight conditions will be
poor, with ceilings falling into the IFR-LIFR range and patchy
MVFR fog developing. Similar conditions, including showers and
thunderstorms categorized as MVFR-IFR, are forecast for Monday.
The majority of this activity will begin after 15Z, with peak
coverage expected after 18Z, moving from south to north.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A persistent weather pattern will produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms each day this week. As a result, there
are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     80  66  80  65 /  80  80  90  50
Anniston    79  67  80  66 /  90  70  90  50
Birmingham  79  67  80  67 /  90  70  90  50
Tuscaloosa  80  69  81  69 /  90  60  80  50
Calera      80  67  81  67 /  90  60  90  50
Auburn      79  69  80  68 /  90  60  80  50
Montgomery  79  69  80  68 /  90  70  90  30
Troy        80  69  81  68 /  90  60  90  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 10 AM CDT this morning through Tuesday evening
for the following counties: Autauga-Bibb-Blount-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-Hale-Jefferson-
Lowndes-Marengo-Montgomery-Perry-Randolph-Shelby-St. Clair-
Talladega-Tuscaloosa-Walker.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...32/JDavis
AVIATION...16