Muscle Shoals, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

099
FXUS64 KHUN 231911
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
211 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Remainder of today and tonight)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, WNW flow aloft of 40-50 knots will
persist across the TN Valley through the duration of the near term
period, as our region will be located within the gradient between
an upper low across southern Quebec/adjacent portions New England
and a low amplitude ridge migrating eastward across the
central/southern High Plains. At the surface, high pressure
(initially situated across western MO) will spread southeastward
into eastern portions of KY/TN by late afternoon, with light NNE
winds expected to become light/variable by early this evening.
Although latest IR satellite data suggests that an abundant
coverage of altostratus clouds will continue across the CWFA this
afternoon, conditions will remain dry in the wake of a subtle cold
frontal passage (which occurred late yesterday evening), with
highs in the mid 70s.

Well to our west, clusters of thunderstorms will continue to
develop throughout the afternoon from central SD southward into
north-central OK, enhanced by a weak mid-level vort max moving
through the crest of the 500-mb ridge and both boundary layer
upslope flow/lower-tropospheric warm advection to the east of a
deepening lee cyclone across southeastern CO. As the primary
surface low redevelops southeastward into the TX Panhandle
overnight, the related warm front will move little (if at all) and
should generally extend from the low southeastward through the
Arklamiss and into southern MS/AL. Aided by strong mid-level WNW
flow, thunderstorms originating across eastern KS should grow into
a more organized cluster as they spread into southern MO this
evening and into northern AL/southern TN shortly before sunrise
tomorrow. Although sufficient effective bulk shear will exist
across our region, storms will be elevated (to the north of the
warm front) and with elevated CAPE in the 500-1000 J/kg range,
brief wind gusts up to 40 MPH, small hail, lightning and locally
heavy rainfall will be the main impacts.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Saturday through Sunday night)
Issued at 125 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Although latest model data suggests that a surface low (initially
across the TX Panhandle) may redevelop to the southwest (across
southeastern NM) on Saturday/Saturday night, the
position/orientation of the synoptic warm front is expected to
change little (if at all) as diabatic cooling (due to extensive
precipitation on the cool side of the boundary) will significantly
limit any northward progress. Current thinking is that rain and
elevated thunderstorms (ongoing at 12Z Saturday) will continue for
much of the morning, with perhaps some dissipation of this regime
beginning around mid-day. Due to the elevated nature of the
convection, it is highly uncertain whether or not redevelopment of
thunderstorms will occur tomorrow afternoon, but we will need to
keep an eye to the northwest in the event that another more
organized cluster emerges from the southeastern KS/southwestern MO
vicinity and begins to spread southeastward.

At this point, there is a more consistent signal in model
guidance for redevelopment of storms in the central OK vicinity
late Saturday afternoon, that may also grow into an expanding MCS
that would track east-southeastward across southern MO/northern AR
and into western portions of KY/TN by 12Z Sunday. Presuming that
sufficient breaks occur between consecutive rounds of
rain/elevated storms north of the warm front tomorrow, there are
indications that the front may lift northward into the region
beginning late Saturday night, and this may increase the risk for
surface-based convection (especially south of the TN River) as the
southern portion of the MCS clips our region late Sunday morning.
Although mid-level WNW flow will fall into the 30-40 knot range
on Saturday/Sunday, this could result in a local enhancement in
the threat for both severe wind/hail (as CAPE may rise into the
2000-3000 J/kg range south of the warm front). However, the actual
position of the boundary will determine the northward extent of
this risk into our region. Additional showers and thunderstorms
may occur Sunday afternoon/evening as there indications that the
warm front may stall across our region (if it indeed reaches our
CWFA), but coverage of this activity will be dictated by the
extent of morning precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 832 PM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Sunday night an upper level ridge will continue to translate east
across the Gulf coast. Along the northern edge of this,
additional shortwaves look to ripple through the TN Vally on
Monday. This unfortunately will make for a rather wet holiday with
consistent rain and thunder chances throughout the day. These
rain and thunder chances will be further supported by an
approaching cold front nearing the area Monday evening. While the
passage of the front does look to maintain rain chances through
the evening, long range models are rather pessimistic regarding an
environment supportive of severe weather. Rather, model guidance
suggests we will have limited instability due to the ongoing rain
throughout the day.

While the front looks to pass on Tuesday morning, it looks to
weaken as it progresses SE. Thus, low rain and storms chances will
be maintained through the long term forecast as the front decays
to our SE. Aside from the likely overcast conditions through mid
week, the additional byproduct will be mild temperatures across
the area for mid May. Temperatures look to remain near or below 80
each day making for slightly cooler than seasonable conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 211 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Bkn-ovc layers of As will continue to spread east-southeastward
across northern AL this aftn, providing VFR cigs of 8-12 kft.
Although this cloud mass may tend to dissipate very late this
aftn/early this evening, additional mid and high-lvl clouds will
arrive prior to 6Z as an organizing cluster of RA/TSRA spreads
across southern MO. Present indications are that this regime will
arrive in the local forecast area shortly before 12Z, with PROB30
groups for MVFR cig/vsby reductions included btwn 10-16Z/MSL and
12-18Z/HSV. Although TSRA across our region will be occurring to
the north of a warm front and elevated in nature, AWWs may still
be required for lightning, brief gusty winds of 25-35 kts and
small hail. Light NNE sfc winds will become lgt/vrbl by early this
evening.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM...70/DD
LONG TERM...RAD
AVIATION...70/DD