Millbrook, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

460
FXUS64 KBMX 231716
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1216 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

 - There is a low chance for severe storms Saturday afternoon and
   evening and again on Sunday afternoon and evening as
   thunderstorms move through the area both days. Damaging winds
   and large hail will be the primary threats.

 - An active weather pattern is expected through the entire
   holiday weekend with a medium to high chance (50-80%) of
   thunderstorms each day. Some of these storms may become strong
   to severe with damaging wind gusts and large hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1039 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

We`re enjoying one more tranquil day across the Deep South as
Memorial Day Weekend kicks off. Mostly sunny skies are overhead
aside from some mid-level and high clouds streaming in from the
northwest across northern Alabama. The surface front that moved in
yesterday is stalled along the U.S. 80/I-85 corridor, with a
slightly drier and cooler airmass to the north of it. That stalled
front will become oriented northwest to southeast across Central
Alabama as a surface ridge builds in over the Smoky Mountains
overnight tonight. We`ll stay dry through this evening as
temperatures stay on the pleasant side across the northern half of
the CWA in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Hot conditions are expected
across the south, where temperatures will reach close to the 90
degree mark.

With the stalled front remaining in place as a focusing mechanism
at the surface, the train of shortwave disturbances at the
synoptic scale will begin to arrive over the region by Saturday.
By early Saturday morning, clusters of storms or a more organized
MCS will be moving southeastward from Arkansas and western
Tennessee toward Central Alabama. Some of the CAMs are currently
indicating a potential for this activity to weaken and diminish
before arriving over most of the CWA Saturday morning, with
additional convective development during the peak heating of the
afternoon. Mesoscale boundaries from the morning storms to the
northwest would also help to trigger additional storms during the
afternoon. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe storms will
remain in the forecast with plenty of instability available and
enough shear to support strong updrafts. Gusty winds and hail will
be the main hazards with any storms during the day on Saturday.
Due to the fact that this will be a northwesterly flow situation,
we always have to be prepared for surprises and rapid updates to
the forecast. The unsettled wet and stormy pattern is expected to
continue throughout much of the upcoming week.

56/GDG

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

No major changes with this long term forecast update. Our
unsettled pattern continue through next week as a boundary lingers
across the southeast. Several shortwaves passing through will help
promote moderate to high chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Greatest chances for strong storms will likely come during the
afternoon and evening hours as we reach peak heating.

Rainfall totals have trended up with amounts ranging from 2-4"
across the NW portions of the area. Latest ensemble guidance hints
as a low to moderate chance of amounts exceeding 4" across our far
NW counties. We will monitor the trends over the next several
days.

95/Castillo

Previous long-term discussion:
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

An active weather pattern will bring several rounds of thunderstorms
through the area for the Memorial Day Weekend and much of next week.

A weak stalled boundary remains in place across Central AL
throughout most of the week with generally zonal flow aloft and high
pressure to our southeast. Several shortwaves are expected to move
through the region essentially every day from Sunday through
Thursday, which will lead to high rain/thunderstorm chances each
day. The uncertainty will be in the timing of each shortwave and
subsequent timing of any thunderstorm development through the
week. There will be at least a low probability for severe storms
on Sunday as the 2nd wave moves through the stalled boundary.
Damaging winds and hail will be the main concerns with this
activity.

It`s likely that we`ll have to introduce at least a low
probability of severe weather for several of the days in the
extended, as the environment will be primed for damaging winds and
large hail along and south of wherever the stalled frontal
boundary happens to be on each day. However, predictability on
timing of the shortwaves and placement of the boundary will
prevent the addition of risk areas beyond Sunday at this time.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT FRI MAY 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast
period. We`ll be keeping an eye on SHRA/TSRA development across
northern Alabama between 12z and 18z Saturday as storms move in
from the north and west. For now, have added in a PROB30 for SHRA
during the planning period but aviators should go ahead and
prepare for the potential of more widespread SHRA/TSRA after 18z
Saturday. Winds will remain light this afternoon mainly from the
north under 10 knots becoming calm or variable overnight. Easterly
surface winds Saturday morning will become more southeasterly to
southerly by 18z Saturday.

56/GDG

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Dry conditions continue this afternoon, with min RH values
dropping to the 35 to 45 percent range. Generally light north to
northwesterly winds are expected today, shifting more easterly
over the weekend. Rain and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday
with low chance of severe storms. Wet pattern will continue
through much of the upcoming week. Min RHs look to settle into the
50-60% range daily late this weekend into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     56  80  60  84 /  30  50  40  70
Anniston    59  82  64  85 /  20  40  40  60
Birmingham  62  83  66  85 /  20  40  30  60
Tuscaloosa  64  85  68  87 /  10  40  20  60
Calera      63  84  67  86 /  10  30  30  60
Auburn      64  87  67  87 /   0  10  20  40
Montgomery  65  91  69  91 /   0  20  10  40
Troy        65  90  68  92 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...56
LONG TERM....95/Castillo
AVIATION...56