Homewood, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

619
FXUS64 KBMX 150531
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1231 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 956 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025

No update is needed to the afternoon forecast package at this
time.

/44/

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025

High pressure will move east today with a trough deepening over
the Ohio Valley. A frontal boundary will swing through this
trough, moving into northern Alabama shortly after midnight. Low
and mid level flow will be from the southwest through the
afternoon and evening ahead of this boundary, with enough
moisture to be around 1.2 to 1.3 inches by the time the boundary
moves into the state. Though this is around the 90th percentile,
and instability looks to be several hundred J/kg, there is a lot
of warmer air in the mid levels for any activity to overcome.
Right now, will advertise light rain, with a low chance for a
more moderate rain shower and isolated thunderstorm in the area`s
northern most counties where forcing will be greater.

The boundary will continue to move south and east through the
late night and early morning. Most models try to show a drying
trend, though CAMs try to keep in light showers through sunrise as
far south as the I85 area. Have included slightly higher rainfall
values with a few soundings showing saturated low levels. However,
confidence is low coverage will be anything more than isolated
sprinkles in the southern most counties.

By mid morning on Tuesday, most of the activity should be weakened
and east of the state, with dry conditions through the rest of the
short term. Northwest flow will prevail behind the boundary
through the morning, with dry and cooler air advecting into the
state. High temperatures on Tuesday afternoon could be as much as
ten degrees lower than the high temperatures today.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT MON APR 14 2025

High pressure will develop Tuesday night and move east through
the rest of the work week. Northwest flow will prevail in the
low levels around this high, and in the upper levels on the
backside of the trough that brought that boundary. This flow will
cause plenty of dry air will, with RH values in the 30s through
the end of the work week. By Thursday, a ridge moves west to east
across the MS and TN valleys, with low and mid level flow
transitioning to out of the southwest late Thursday into Friday as
the area moves on the west side of the ridge.

Temperatures will gradually warm each day, with high temperatures
on Wednesday in the low to mid 70s increasing to highs on Sunday
in the mid to upper 80s.

By Saturday afternoon, a low pressure is expected to develop over
the Great Plains, and move to the northeast. This system is
set to bring our next chance for rain, and there is a lot of
uncertainty with timing and coverage. Models have been slowing
down the initial arrival of rain, so will leave it now with a late
Sunday into Monday timeframe.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2025

Cold front was making steady progress and about to push into
northern Alabama just before the 06Z TAF valid time. Radar showed
spotty showers associated with the front, but 00Z models
maintained the idea that the rain should decrease in activity
through the next several hours and should not be a factor for
central Alabama TAFs. There is a band of clouds straddling the
front, with ceilings averaging around 5000 ft. As the front pushes
into the slightly better low level moisture farther to the south
early this morning, there could be a 2-4 hour window of MVFR
conditions (at TCL or MGM).

Aside from that, this set of TAFs remains mostly a wind forecast.
Cold frontal passage should be marked by a noticeable shift in
wind direction from south/southwest to northwest, along with an
increase in speed. Once the sun comes up, higher level winds are
likely to mix down and create some gusty conditions as well.

/61/

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will bring a small chance of showers to our northern
areas tonight, then the airmass dries out quite a bit on Tuesday
with min RHs between 20% and 25% during the afternoon. 20ft winds
shift from southwest to northwest behind the front on Tuesday,
ranging from 8 to 10 mph with gusts up to 15 mph. Winds will
decrease on Wednesday as high pressure builds over the area, but
RH values will fall to near critical thresholds once again during
the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     70  40  72  43 /  10   0   0   0
Anniston    70  41  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  71  43  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  73  42  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      71  44  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      70  45  72  49 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  74  44  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        74  44  73  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION.../61/